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題名：鐵或非合金鐵棒鋼及線材課徵反傾銷稅之經濟效果及影響分析--以落日檢討案件為例
書刊名：貿易調查叢刊
作者：黃智輝／林大鈞
作者(外文)：Huang, Chi-huei／Lin, Dah-june
出版日期：2010
卷期：21:1
頁次：頁55-92
主題關鍵詞：世界貿易組織；反傾銷稅；商業政策分析模型；落日檢討；World trade organization；Anti-dumping duty；COMPAS model；Sunset review
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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摘 要 鋼鐵為國家基礎與經濟建設重要基石，鋼品需求隨一國經濟建設發 展而不斷擴張。台灣為海島型經濟之國家，天然資源匱乏，鋼鐵市場受 國際市場價格影響甚鉅。1992 年9 月台灣區鋼鐵工業同業公會申請控訴 巴西對我國傾銷鐵或非合金鐵棒鋼及線材。行政院核定自1994 年4 月 25 日起課徵反傾銷稅。本文運用美國國際貿易委員會(USITC)所發展之 商業政策分析模型(Commercial Policy Analysis System，簡稱COMPAS 模 型)及F 檢定與雙因數變異數運用重複實驗(ANOVA)分析課徵反傾稅前 後對產業損害之影響模擬作一分析，作為建立落日檢討(sunset review)一 套快速便捷有效之判定審查參考機制。實證分析結果顯示傾銷行為造成 影響國產品價格降低、生產量減少、收益減少、市場占有率下降、設備 利用率下降。傾銷進口品價格變動率降低、進口數量增加、收益變動率 增加、市場占有率上升。非傾銷進口品價格、進口數量、收益率、市場 占有率等各項指標均呈下降。以F 檢定與雙因數變異數分析，探討棒鋼與線材課稅前後之變化，亦證明課稅行為對其數量、價格、占有率造成 顯著影響。課徵反傾銷稅對國內上、下游產業皆有正面效果。
Abstract Taiwan is an island-type economy country which is short of natural resources and its steel market price is influenced by international market hugely. Taiwan Steel and Iron industries Association filed a lawsuit against Brazil for dumping iron or non-alloy iron bar and wire rod on September 1992. The Executive Yuan of Taiwan approved the anti-dumping duty on April 25, 1994. This study used the Commercial Policy Analysis System (COMPAS) model to determine how much the damage could cause while one subject prosecuted a lawsuit. The empirical study showed that the effects of the imposition of anti-dumping duty: domestic manufactures price reduced, quantity reduced, profit reduced, market share dropped, and utilization ratio of facilities dropped. The normal price of import dropped, the quantity of import increased, the profit increased, the market share increased and the non-dumping import products are the reverse. This research also used F-test and two factors ANOVA to analyze the difference between before and after the anti-dumping protection and demonstrated that the imposition of anti-dumping duty greatly affects the quantity, price and market share. To sum up, the imposition of anti-dumping duty created a positive protection effects on the domestic industry.
期刊論文
1.黃智輝(20081000)。銅版紙課徵反傾銷稅經濟效果與國家整體利益分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策，39(1)，69-96。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Nieberding, Jame F.(1999)。The Effect of U.S. Antidumping Law on Firms 'Market Power: An Empirical Test。Review of Industrial Organization，14，65-84。  new window
3.Staiger, R. W.、Wolak, F. A.(1994)。Measuring Industry Specific Protection: Antidumping in the United States。Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics，1，51-118。  new window
4.黃智輝(20080600)。我國入會後農產品貿易救濟產業損害之模擬分析--以紅豆產業為例。農業經濟叢刊，13(2)，135-164。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Armington, P. S.(1970)。Adjustment of trade balances: Some experiments with a model of trade among many countries。International Monetary Fund Staff Papers，17(3)，488-526。  new window
6.左俊德、楊秀玲(19990700)。課徵反傾銷稅對產業影響之研究。貿易調查專刊，4，87-106。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Shiells, C. R.、Stern, R. M.、Deardorff, A. V.(1986)。Estimates of the Elasticities of Substitution between Imports and Home Goods for the United States。Weltwirtschaftliches Archive，122(3)，497-519。  new window
8.Durling, J. P.、Thomas, J. P.(2006)。The Trade Effects Associated with an Antidumping Epidemic: The Hot-rolled Steel Market, 1996-2001。European Journal of Political Economy，2，1-11。  new window
9.Krupp, Corinne M.、Skeath, Susan(2002)。Evidence on the Upstream and Downstream Impacts of Antidumping Cases。North America Journal of Economics and Finance，13(2)，163-178。  new window
10.Armington, Paul S.(1969)。The Geographic Pattern of Trade and the Effects of Price changes。International Monetary Fund Staff Papers，16(1)，176-199。  new window
11.Armington, P. S.(1969)。A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production。International Monetary Fund Staff Papers，16(1)，159-178。  new window
12.Kelly, K. M.、Morkre, M. E.(1998)。Do Unfairly Traded Imports Injure Domestic Industries?。Review of International Economics，6(2)，321-332。  new window
13.Said, S. E.、Dickey, D. A.(1985)。Hypothesis Testing in ARIMA (p, 1, q) Models。Journal of the American Statistical Association，80，369-374。  new window
14.黃智輝(20080300)。水泥課徵反傾銷稅的政策效果與競爭力分析--臺灣實證分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策，38(2)，1-30。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.黃智輝(20031200)。反傾銷案件產業損害調查經濟效益實證分析--我國案例探討。臺灣銀行季刊，54(4)，216-248。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.黃智輝(20050300)。反傾銷案件產業損害認定態樣之探討。臺灣銀行季刊，56(1)，215-237。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.黃智輝(20050600)。反傾銷案件產業損害認定態樣之探討。臺灣銀行季刊，56(2)，145-199。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.黃智輝(20070100)。臺灣進口救濟案件調查之認定態樣。臺灣經濟金融月刊，43(1)=504，70-94。  延伸查詢new window
19.黃智輝(20070200)。臺灣進口救濟案件調查之認定態樣。臺灣經濟金融月刊，43(2)=505，35-62。  延伸查詢new window
20.黃智輝(20060600)。臺灣農產品救助政策與進品救濟制度運用之效益分析。農業經濟叢刊，11(2)，309-340。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.黃智輝(2009)。「我國進口乾金針貿易潛在衝擊模擬分析」。《台銀季刊》，60(3)，152~170。  延伸查詢new window
22.Bown, Chad P. and Meredith A. Crowley(2007)。Trade Deflection and Trade Depression。Journal of International Economics，72，176~201。  new window
23.Krupp, C. and Patrica S. Pollard(1996)。Market Responses to Antidumping Law: Some Evidence from US Chemical Industry。Canadian Journal of Economics，29，199~227。  new window
24.Shiells, C. R., R. M. Stern, and A.V. Deardorff(1986)。Estimates of the Elasticitiesof Substitution between Imports and Home Goods for the United States。Weltwirtschaftliches Archive，122(3)，497~519。  new window
25.黃智輝(2006)。反傾銷案件產業損害之認定態樣。台銀季刊，56(1)，215-237。new window  延伸查詢new window
26.Bown, Chad P.、Crowley, Meredith A.(2007)。Trade Deflection and Trade Depression。Journal of International Economics，72，176-201。  new window
27.Krupp, C.、Pollard, Patrica S.(1996)。Market Responses to Antidumping Law: Some Evidence from US Chemical Industry。Canadian Journal of Economics，29，199-227。  new window
研究報告
1.Prusa, Thomas. J.(1997)。The Trade Effects of U.S. Antidumping Actions。Washington D.C.：National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
2.Eichengreen, B. J.、Der Ven, H. Van(1983)。U.S. Antidumping Policies: The Case of Steel。Washington, D.C.：National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
3.Knetter, Michael M.、Prusa, Thomas J.(2000)。Macroeconomic Factors and Antidumping Filings: Evidence from Four Countries。Washington, DC：National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
4.Prusa, Thomas. J.(2001)。“On the Spread and Impact of Antidumping,”。Washington D.C.,。  new window
5.USITC(1995)。The Economic Effects of Antidumping and Countervailing DutyOrder and Suspension Agreements。WashingtonD.C.:。  new window
6.USITC(1995)。The Economic Effects of Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Order and Suspension Agreements。Washington D.C.。  new window
7.Prusa, Thomas. J.(2001)。On the Spread and Impact of Antidumping。Washington D.C.。  new window
8.Reinert, K.A.、Shiells, C.R.(1992)。Estimated Elasticities of Substitution for Analysis of a North American Free Trade Area。Washington, D.C.。  new window
學位論文
1.黃俊南(2000)。台灣加入WTO後對製造業廠商的擊影響調查分析(碩士論文)。國立中山大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳玉麟(2001)。台灣鋼鐵產業網路－不鏽鋼之生產與行銷策略。  延伸查詢new window
3.朱俊義(2005)。反傾銷調查立案與裁定成立之影響因素WTO會員國1990-2004年案例實證分析。  延伸查詢new window
4.李書全(2003)。台灣鋼鐵產業H型鋼材之反傾銷個案研究(碩士論文)。國立中山大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.陳星宇(20010700)。反傾銷制度產業保護效果之研究--以DRAM個案為例(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.李淑媛(2006)。反傾銷案件產業損害認定經濟分析模型之研究-台灣型鋼產業之應用(博士論文)。國立臺灣大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Francois, J. F.、Hall, H. K.(1993)。COMPAS: Commercial Policy Analysis System。Washington, D. C.：U. S. International Trade Commission。  new window
2.黃智輝(2001)。貿易救濟防火牆進口救濟與世界貿易組織--台灣產業結構調整策略。台商圖書有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.Francois, J. F.、Reinert, K. A.(1997)。Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
4.Reinert, Kenneth A.、Shiells, Clinton R.(1992)。Estimated Elasticities of Substitution for Analysis of a North American Free Trade Area。Washington, D.C.：USITC, Office of Economics。  new window
5.黃智輝(2001)。《貿易救濟防火牆進口救濟與世界貿易組織－台灣產業結構調整策略》。  延伸查詢new window
6.黃得晉(2006)。2006鋼鐵年鑑－棒線類鋼篇。  延伸查詢new window
7.Kaplan, Seth,(1991)。Injury and Causation in USITC Anti-dumping Determination: Five Recent Approath。i Policy Implications of Antidumping Measures。Amsterdam, Oxford, Tokyo。  new window
8.Kaplan, Seth,(1991)。Injury and Causation in USITC Anti-dumping Determination。Policy Implications of Antidumping Measures。Amsterdam ; Oxford ; Tokyo。  new window
其他
1.黃得晉(2006)。2006 鋼鐵年鑑－棒線類鋼篇。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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