提　　要 「有效嚇阻」於我國現今軍事戰略構想中睠在嚇阻概念的發展下睠對被嚇阻者 所承擔的可能「損失」睠應該可以是更為廣泛的本益計算。針對嚇阻本益的計算範 圍睠除了軍事行為外睠尤其對於被嚇阻者不採取行動、誤判、預判等問題上睠採用 邏輯性的思考睠將使嚇阻決策更為清晰睠對於嚇阻成功的操作睠產生另一層新的思 維。

Abstract 'Credible deterrence' is one of our military strategic concepts. Among the development of numerous deterrence concepts, the cost-benefit should be calculated extensively in order to find out the possible 'losses' which the adversary would get. Besides the military actions, using the logical thinking to calculate the cost-benefit will make the deterrence decision clearer and provide a new level of concept to successful deterrence operation, especially for those issues as inaction, misjudgment and advanced judgment of the adversary.