| 期刊論文1. | Taylor, Duncan M.、Taylor, Graeme M.(20070200)。The Collapse and Transformation of Our World。Journal of Futures Studies,11(3),29-45。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Molitor, Graham T. T.(1977)。How to anticipate public policy changes。SAM Advanced Management Journal,42(3),4-13。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Markley, Oliver(2007)。Mental time travel: A practical business and personal research tool for looking ahead。Futures,40,17-24。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | Inayatullah, Sohail(2006)。Anticipatory action learning: Theory and practice。Futures,38(6),656-666。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 5. | Beddoe, Rachael、Robert Costanzaa、Joshua Farleya、Eric Garzaa、Jennifer Kentd、Ida Kubiszewskia、Luz Martineza、Tracy McCowenc、Kathleen Murphya、Norman Myerse、Zach Ogdenc、Kevin Stapletonc、John Woodward(2009)。Overcoming systemic roadblocks to sustainability: The evolutionary redesign of worldviews, institutions, and technologies。Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,106(8),2483–2489。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 6. | Feinberg, Matthew、Robb Willer(2011)。Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just world beliefs (Summarized online as Dire Messages About Global Warming Can Backfire, New Study Shows)。Psychological science,22。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 7. | Homer-Dixon, Thomas(2008)。Our panarchic future。World Watch magazine,22(2)。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 8. | Anderies, John、Brian Walker、Ann Kinzig(2006)。Fifteen weddings and a funeral: case studies and resilience-based management。Ecology and Society,11(1)。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 9. | Coates, Joseph F.(2000)。Book review: decision making for technology executives。Technololgy forecasting and social change,63,101-104。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 10. | Feygina, Irena、John Jost、Rachel Goldsmith(2010)。System justification, the denial of global warming, and the possibility of system-sanctioned change。Personality and social psychology bulletin,36,326-338。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 11. | Linstone, Harold(1999)。Complexity science: Implications for forecasting。Technology forecasting and social change,62,79-90。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 12. | Markley, Oliver W.(1998)。Visionary futures: guided cognitive imagery in teaching and learning about the future (a special issue of ABS on 'Futures Studies in Higher Education' edited by Dr. James Dator)。American Behavioral Scientist,42(3),522-530。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 13. | Pincus, David、Annette Metten(2010)。Nonlinear dynamics in biopsychosocial resilience。Nonlinear dynamics, psychology, and life sciences,14(4),353-380。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 14. | Ramos, Jose M.(2006)。Dimensions in the confluence of futures studies and action research。Futures,38(6),642-65。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 15. | Turner, Graham(2008)。A comparison of limits to growth with thirty years of reality。Global Environmental Change,18,397-41。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 16. | Markley, Oliver。A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises。Technology Forecasting and Social Change。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 17. | Markley, Oliver W.、Thomas J. Hurley, III.(1983)。A brief technology assessment of the carbon dioxide effect。Technology forecasting and social change,23(2),185-201。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 18. | Garmestani, Ahjond S.、Craig R. Allen、Lance Gunderson(2009)。Panarchy: discontinuities reveal similarities in the dynamic system structure of ecological and social systems。Ecology and Society,14(1),2010。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 會議論文1. | Folke, Carl、Steve Carpenter、Thomas Elmqvist、Lance Gunderson、Holling C.S.、Brian Walker、Jan Bengtsson、Fikret Berkes、Johan Colding、Kjell Danell、Malin Falkenmark、Line Gordon、Roger Kasperson、Nils Kautsky、Ann Kinzig、Simon Levin、K(2002)。Resilience and sustainable development: Building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Markley, Oliver、Constance Porter(2010)。Anticipating disruptive change in real world complex systems with futures research。San Marcos, TX。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Nelson, Ruben(2010)。Surprises Ahead: What will be special about the 21st century? Why do we now need boundary-crossing research?。Luxembourg。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 研究報告1. | Willis Harman、Markley O. W.、Campbell, Joseph、Duane Elgin、Arthur Hastings、Floyd Matson、Brendan O'Regan、Leslie Schneider(1974)。The societal consequences of changing images of man。Menlo Park, CA。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Markley, Oliver W.(1995)。The fourth wave: A normative forecast for the future of 'spaceship earth'。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Harman, Willis W.、Markley, O. W.、Russell Rhyne(1973)。The Forecasting of Plausible Alternative Future Histories: Methods, Results and Educational Policy Implications。Paris。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 圖書1. | Macy, Joanna、Brown, Molly Young(1998)。Coming back to life: Practices to reconnect our lives, our world。Philadelphia:New Society Publishers。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Taylor, Graeme(2008)。Evolution's edge: The coming collapse and transformation of our world。Gabriola Island, BC:New Society。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Wygant, Alice、Oliver W. Markley(1988)。Information and the future: A handbook of sources and strategies。New York:Greenwood。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | Petersen, John(2008)。A Vision for 2012: Planning for extraordinary change。Golden, CO:Fulcrum Publishing。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 5. | Moyer, Bill、JoAnn McAllister、Mary Lou Finley、Steven Soifer(2001)。Doing democracy: The MAP model for organizing social movements。Gabriola Island, BC:New Society Pub。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 6. | Meadows, Donella H.(1999)。Leverage points: Places to intervene in a system。Hartland, VT:Sustainability Institute。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 7. | Gunderson, Lance、Holling C.S.、Stephen Light(1995)。Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions。USA:Columbia University Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 8. | Brown, L. R.(2003)。Plan B: Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble。New York, NY:W. W. Norton & Company。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 9. | Meadows, Donella H.、Dennis L. Meadows、Jorgen Randers、William W. Behrens III.(1972)。Limits to Growth。Universe Books。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 10. | Gunderson, Lance、Holling, C. S.(2002)。Panarchy : understanding transformations in human and natural systems。Washington, DC:Island Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 11. | Hawken, Paul(2007)。Blessed Unrest: How the Largest Movement in the World Came into Being, and Why No One Saw It Coming。New York:Viking。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 12. | Miller, W. R.、Rollnick, S.(2002)。Motivational interviewing: Preparing people for change。New York:The Guildford Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 13. | Toffler, Alvin(1980)。The Third Wave。Bantam Books。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 14. | Brown, Lester(2008)。Plan B: 3.0: Mobilizing to save civilization (Substantially revised)。NY。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 15. | Brown, Lester(2009)。Plan B: 4.0: Mobilizing to save civilization。NY:Norton。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 16. | Erlich, Paul(1992)。Healing the planet: Strategies for solving the environmental crisis。New York。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 17. | Greer, John Michael(2009)。The eco-technic future: Envisioning a post-peak world。Philadelphia。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 18. | Greer, John Michael(2008)。The long descent: A user's guide to the end of the industrial age。Philadelphia。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 19. | Hedges, Chris(2009)。Empire of illusion: The end of literacy and the triumph of spectacle。New York。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 20. | Homer-Dixon, Thomas(2006)。The upside of down: Catastrophe, creativity, and the renewal of civilization。Washington, D.C.:Island。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 21. | Kelly, Penny(2001)。Robes: A book of coming changes。Lincoln, NE。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 22. | Linstone, Harold A.(1999)。Decision making for technology executives: Using multiple perspectives to improve performance。Artech House。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 23. | Macy, Joanna(1983)。Despair and personal power in the nuclear age。Philadelphia, PA:New Society Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 24. | McKibben, Bill(2010)。Eaarth: Making life on a tough new planet。New York。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 25. | McTaggart, Lynne(2007)。The intention experiment: Using your thoughts to change your life and the world。New York:Free Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 26. | Meadows, Donella H.、Jorgen Randers、Dennis Meadows(1994)。Limits to growth: The 30-year update。New York。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 27. | Petersen, John(1997)。Out of the blue: Wild cards and other big future surprises: How to anticipate and respond to profound change。Arlington, VA。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 28. | Ramo, Joshua Cooper(2009)。The age of the unthinkable: Why the new world order constantly surprises us and what we can do about it。New York。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 29. | Rachele, Sal(2008)。Earth changes and 2010: Messages from the founders。Sedona, AZ。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 30. | Spangler, David(2010)。Facing the future。Everett, WA。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 31. | Sustainable World Coalition(2010)。Sustainable world sourcebook: Critical issues, viable solutions, resources for action。Gabriola Island, BC。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 32. | Wiedemer, David、Robert A. Wiedemer、Cindy Spitzer(2006)。America's bubble economy: Profit when it pops。Hoboken, NJ。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 33. | Wiedemer, David、Robert A. Wiedemer、Cindy Spitzer(2010)。Aftershock: Protect yourself and profit in the next financial meltdown。Hoboken, NJ。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 34. | Feygina, Irena、Rachel Goldsmith、John Jost。System justification and the disruption of environmental goal-setting: A self-regulatory perspective。Social cognitive and neuroscientific approaches to self-control。New York。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 35. | Folke, Carl、Johan Colding、Fikret Berkes(2002)。Building resilience for adaptive capacity in social-ecological systems。Navigating social-ecological systems: building resilience for complexity and change。Cambridge。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 其他1. | Rechmeyer, Julie(2010)。'Discounting' the future cost of climate change, Science News,http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/59509/title/Discounting_the_future_cost_of_climate_change, 20101108。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Ambinder, Marc(2010)。The corporations already outspend the parties,http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/02/the-corporations-already-outspend-the-parties/35113/, 20101208。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Brown, Lester(2009)。A civilizational tipping point,http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/book_bytes/2008/pb3ch01_ss5, 20101028。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | Cascio, Jamais(2009)。The next big thing: resilience,http://www.openthefuture.com/media/FP-cascio.pdf, 20101108。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 5. | Spitzer, Elliot(2008)。Predatory lenders' partner in crime: how the bush administration stopped the states from stepping in to help consumers,http://, 20100621。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 6. | Taibbi, Matt(2009)。The great american bubble machine,http://sites.google.com/site/disclosuredelta/, 20101108。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 7. | Ferguson, Niall(2010)。Complexity and collapse; empires on the edge of chaos,www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24874.htm, 20100621。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 8. | Homer-Dixon, Thomas(2009)。The great transformation: Climate change as cultural change,http://www.homerdixon.com/download/the_great_transformation.pdf, 20101123。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 9. | Markley, Oliver W.,Willis W. Harman.(1982)。Changing images of man,Elmsford, NY。,http://www.imaginalvisioning.com/changing-images-of-man/, 20101110。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 10. | Moyer, Bill(1987)。'The Movement action plan: A strategic framework describing the eight stages of successful social movements,http://www.nonviolence.org.au/downloads/movement_action_plan.pdf, 20101025。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 11. | Nordhaus, Ted,Michael Shellenberger(2009)。Apocalypse fatigue: Losing the public on climate change,http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2210, 20101123。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 12. | Homer Dixon, Thomas(2010)。Disaster at the top of the world。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 13. | Kahn, Ashhad(2009)。Carrying capacity, Environmental protection,http://www.eponline.com/Articles/2009/12/21/Carrying-Capacity.aspx, 20101108。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 14. | Macy, Joanna(2006)。The work that reconnects,Philadelphia。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 15. | Gall, Nicholas,David Newman,Philip Allega,Anne Lapkin,Robert A. Handler(2010)。Introducing hybrid thinking for transformation, innovation and strategy,http://www.gartner.com/resources/172000/172065/introducing_hybrid_thinking__172065.pdf, 20101021。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | |
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