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題名：颱洪災害脆弱度評估指標之建立：以南投縣水里鄉為例
書刊名：都市與計劃
作者：吳杰穎／黃昱翔
作者(外文)：Wu, Jie-ying／Huang, Yu-shiang
出版日期：2011
卷期：38:2
頁次：頁195-218
主題關鍵詞：颱洪災害；脆弱度；回復力；評估指標；模糊德爾菲法；模糊階層分析法；水里鄉；Typhoon and flood；Vulnerability；Resilience；Evaluation indexes；Fuzzy Delphi method；Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process；Shueili Township
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(20) 博士論文(4) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:55
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在氣候與環境變遷衝擊下，世界各國對於環境衝擊的評估，由單純地評估傳統氣候的影響，逐漸地轉以脆弱度(vulnerability)與回復力(resilience)等觀念，作為研究之切入點。國際上現有脆弱度評估方式之實證多聚焦在國家或區域層級與縣市層級，且脆弱度評估指標較缺乏回復力概念。因此，本研究首先收集與歸納國內、外相關文獻，並釐清實質環境脆弱度(physical vulnerability)、社經脆弱度(social vulnerability)、與回復力等三個概念，研擬鄉鎮層級颱洪災害之脆弱度評估指標。繼而運用模糊德爾菲法(fuzzy Delphi)，篩選評估指標，建立脆弱度與回復力之評估指標體系，分別為3項評估標的、9項評估面向及19項評估指標；並以模糊階層分析法(fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, FAHP)賦予權重。最後，挑選南投縣水里鄉作為評估指標之實證研究地區。實證研究結果發現，水里鄉偏遠地區包括新山、興隆、新興、上安等村為整體脆弱度高之村落，較容易受到災害的衝擊。本研究所建立之評估架構可供相關單位檢視各地區脆弱度、回復力的程度，供作地區災害防救計畫、減災規劃等災害管理策略應用之參考，以降低未來台灣災害的衝擊。
As a result of climate change, an increasing number of studies have focused on vulnerability and resilience in impact assessments. However, most empirical studies of vulnerability used the national and county level and the vulnerability definition did not include resilience. Thus, this study first reviews literature on vulnerability assessment based on physical vulnerability, social vulnerability, and resilience to establish township-level vulnerability indexes for typhoons and floods. This study uses the fuzzy Delphi method to eliminate indexes and establish 3 goals, 9 themes and 19 evaluation indexes. Additionally, this study uses the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to weight all indexes and finalize the indexes framework. Finally, Shueili Township is chosen as a case study and its vulnerability is assessed using these indexes. Assessment results show the remote villages in Shueili Township, such as Shinsan, Shinrown, Shinsing, and Sanan, are most vulnerable. The vulnerability assessment framework is helpful when evaluating the vulnerability of different villages, and assessment results will help in formulating disaster management policies and hazards mitigation strategies.
期刊論文
1.謝志誠、張紉、蔡培慧、王俊凱(20081200)。臺灣災後遷村政策之演變與問題。住宅學報，17(2)，81-97。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Smit, Barry、Wandel, Johanna(2006)。Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability。Global Environmental Change，16(3)，282-292。  new window
3.Pimm, S. L.(1984)。The complexity and stability of ecosystems。Nature，307(5949)，321-326。  new window
4.Vogel, Coleen、Moser, Susanne C.、Kasperson, Roger E.、Dabelko, Geoffrey D.(2007)。Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: Pathways, players, and partnerships。Global Environment Change，17(3/4)，349-364。  new window
5.吳杰穎、康良宇(20070500)。社區防災推動之探討--以「社區防救災總體營造計畫」為例。社區發展季刊，116，213-231。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Gallopin, Gilberto C.(2006)。Linkages between Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptive Capacity。Global Environmental Change，16(3)，293-303。  new window
7.Morrow, B. H.(1999)。Identifying and mapping community vulnerability。Disasters，23(1)，1-18。  new window
8.吳杰穎、江宜錦(200803)。臺灣天然災害統計指標體系建構與分析。地理學報，51，65-84。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Cutter, Susan L.(2003)。The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability。Annals of the Association of American Geographers，93(1)，1-12。  new window
10.Murray, Thomas J.、Pipino, Leo L.、van Gigch, John P.(1985)。A pilot study of fuzzy set modification of Delphi。Human Systems Management，5(1)，76-80。  new window
11.Van Laarhoven, P. J. M.、Pedrycz, W.(1983)。A Fuzzy Extension of Saaty's Priority Theory。Fuzzy Sets and Systems，11(1-3)，229-241。  new window
12.Klein, Richard J. T.、Nicholls, Robert J.、Thomalla, Frank(2003)。Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept?。Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards，5(1/2)，35-45。  new window
13.林冠慧(20040900)。全球變遷下脆弱性與適應性研究方法與方法論的探討。全球變遷通訊雜誌，43，33-38。  延伸查詢new window
14.Adger, W. Neil(2006)。Vulnerability。Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions，16(3)，268-281。  new window
15.劉婧、史培軍、葛怡、王靜愛、呂紅峰(2006)。災害回復力研究進展綜述。地球科學進展，21(2)，211-218。  延伸查詢new window
16.Birkland, T. A.、Burby, R. J.、Conrad, D.、Gortner, H.、Michener, W. K.(2003)。River ecology and flood hazard mitigation。Natural Hazards Review，4(1)，46-54。  new window
17.Burby, R. J.、Beatley, T.、Berke, P. R.、Deyle, R. E.、French, S. P.、Godschalk, D. R.、Platt, R. H.(1999)。Unleashing the power of planning to create disaster-resistant communities。Journal of the American Planning Association，65(3)，247-258。  new window
18.Gabor, T.、Griffith, T. K.(1980)。The assessment of community vulnerability to acute hazardous materials incidents。Journal of Hazardous Materials，3(4)，323-333。  new window
19.King, D.、MacGregor, C.(2000)。Using social indicators to measure community vulnerability to natural hazards。Australian Journal of Emergency Management，15(3)，52-57。  new window
20.Linnerooth-Bayer, L. J.、Amendola, A.(2000)。Global change, natural disaster and loss-sharing: Issues of efficiency and equity。The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance，25(2)，203-219。  new window
21.Anderson, D. R.(2000)。Catastrophe insurance and, compensation: Remembering basic principles。Chartered Property and Casualty Underwriters Journal，53(2)，76-89。  new window
會議論文
1.郭彥廉、謝雯惠、蕭代基、廖楷民(2008)。都會區震災社會易損性因子分析。2008台灣災害管理研討會。台北：台灣災害管理學會。37-38。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.黃書禮(2002)。永續臺灣的願景與策略研究─永續臺灣的評量系統 ( VI )。台北。  延伸查詢new window
2.蕭代基(2002)。聖嬰─南方振盪現象氣候預測的潛在經濟效益分析：異常自然現象預防與損失減輕政策工具研究。台北。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.蕭換章(2008)。水災脆弱度評估模式之建立--以汐止市為例(-)，台北。  延伸查詢new window
2.鄭滄濱(2001)。軟體組織提昇人員能力之成熟度模糊評估模式(碩士論文)。國立臺灣科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.鍾佳霖(2006)。台灣地區各縣市颱風災害脆弱性評估之研究。朝陽大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Cutter, S. L.(1997)。Handbook for Conducting a GIS-Based Hazards Assessment at the County Level。Hazards Research Lab, Department of Geography University of South Carolina。  new window
2.Sterr, R. K.、Klein, R. J.、Reese S.(2003)。Climate change and coastal zones: An overview of the State-of-the-Art on regional and local vulnerability assessment。Cheltenham：Edward Elgar。  new window
3.Saaty, T. L.(1998)。The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation。New York：McGraw-Hill International Book Co.。  new window
4.Adger, W. N.、Nick, B.、Bentham, G.(2004)。New Indicators of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity。Oxford：Tyndall Centre。  new window
5.Dilley, M.、Chen, R. S.、Deichmann, U.、Lerner-Lam, A. L.、Arnold, Margaret、Agwe, J.、Buys, P.、Kjekstad, O.、Lyon, B.、Yteman, G.(2005)。Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis。The World Bank。  new window
6.Pelling, M.(2003)。The Vulnerability of Cities-Natural Disasters and Social Resilience。London：Earthscan Publications Ltd.。  new window
7.Burton, Ian、Kates, Robert W.、White, Gilbert F.(1978)。The Environment as Hazard。Oxford University Press。  new window
8.Kuban, R.、Heather, M. C.(2001)。Community- Wide Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment。Ottawa。  new window
9.Folke, C.、Carpente, S.、Elmqvist, T.(2002)。Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity in a World of Transformations。Stockholm。  new window
10.Pearce, L.(2000)。An Integrated Approach for Community Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability Analysis: HIRV。Vancouver。  new window
11.Timmerman, P.(1981)。Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society: A Seview of Models and Possible Climate Applications。Toronto。  new window
12.Buckle, P.、Marsh, G.、Smale, S.(2001)。Assessing Resilience and Vulnerability: Principle, Strategies and Actions。Emergency Management Australia。  new window
其他
1.水里鄉公所(2009)。南投縣水里鄉戶政事務所-人口統計，http://village.nantougov.tw/slcg/population/index.asp?m=99&ml=5&m2=24， 20090320。  延伸查詢new window
2.交通部公路總局(2009)。海協會訪視八八水災台21線新中橫公路災害搶修及復建情形簡報，http://88flood.www.gov.tw/files/committee_ex， 20100325。  延伸查詢new window
3.IPCC(2001)。Technical summary: Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability，http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARtechsum.pdf， 20090410。  new window
 
 
 
 
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