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題名：投資人情緒與分析師行為之關聯性研究︰以中國市場為例
書刊名：會計審計論叢
作者：林美鳳／陳虹吟 引用關係
作者(外文)：Lin, Mei-feng／Chen, Hung-yin
出版日期：2011
卷期：1:2
頁次：頁57-96
主題關鍵詞：投資人情緒；分析師報導；明星分析師；盈餘預測；Investor sentiment；Analyst coverage；Star analysts；Earnings forecasts
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:54
  • 點閱點閱:53
本研究以中國統計局調查的每月消費者信心指數作為投資人情緒之代理變數，探討投資人情緒是否會影響分析師加入報導的決策；同時比較新財富雜誌評選出的明星分析師與未被評選上的非明星分析師，其預測績效是否存在顯著差異；並進一步探討投資人情緒是否會影響分析師預測績效。研究結果發現：投資人情緒較悲觀時，分析師追蹤的人數會上升。在不考慮投資人情緒影響下，明星分析師的預測相對較非明星分析師樂觀，但其預測準確性與非明星分析師沒有顯著差異。而考慮投資人情緒影響時，若投資人情緒較樂觀，明星分析師的預測樂觀度不受影響，但非明星分析師的預測相對較樂觀。此外，投資人情緒變動愈大時，不論明星分析師與非明星分析師其預測準確性都較低。整體而言，本研究結果顯示，分析師雖為專精且較為理性之投資人，但其行為仍受到投資人情緒所影響。
This study investigates the impact of investor sentiment on analysts' coverage decisions in China. By using the monthly survey of consumer confidence index conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as a proxy for investor sentiment, we investigate if there exists significant difference in forecast accuracy between the star and non-star analysts nominated by the New Fortune magazine and also discuss whether the investor sentiment affects the analysts' performance. We find that the number of analyst following increases when investor sentiment is low. Furthermore, excluding the impact of investor sentiment, the star analysts forecasts are more optimistic than non-star analysts, but there is no significant difference in their forecast accuracy. In addition, considering the impact of investor sentiment, we find that more optimistic investor sentiment leads to more optimistic forecasts by non-star analysts but not by star analysts. Forecast accuracy for both star and non-star analysts, however, decreases when the fluctuation of investor sentiment increases. In sum, our findings indicate that analysts are still affected by the investor sentiment although they are regarded as relatively sophisticated and rational investors in the capital markets.
期刊論文
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會議論文
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研究報告
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3.Leone, A.、Wu, J.(2002)。What does it take to become a superstar? Evidence from institutional investor rankings of financial analysts。University of Rochester。  new window
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圖書
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