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題名:旅行時間預測之研究:模擬指派模式之應用
書刊名:運輸學刊
作者:胡大瀛 引用關係董啟崇 引用關係何偉銘簡佑庭
作者(外文):Hu, Ta-yinTong, Chee-chungHo, Wei-mingChien, Yu-ting
出版日期:2011
卷期:23:4
頁次:頁477-500
主題關鍵詞:旅行時間預測模擬指派模式DynaTAIWANTravel timePredictionSimulation-assignment model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:4
  • 點閱點閱:21
旅行時間預測為先進交通管理系統(Advanced Traffic Management Systems, ATMS)與先進旅行者資訊系統(Advanced Traveler Information Systems, ATIS)應用中重要的課題,其結果可運用於市區路網及交通走廊中避免擁擠、事故,並增進整體路網之效率,相關研究亦日趨重要。本研究發展模擬指派為基礎之旅行時間預測模式,以DynaTAIWAN為基礎提出兩種旅行時間預測方法,分別為車流為基礎(flow-based)以及車輛為基礎(vehicle-based)之模式,主要針對路口號誌之市區交通走廊路網,並可適用於壅塞及事故路段。本研究利用動態旅次起迄推估模式建立O-D資料,以DynaTAIWAN模式模擬車流之移動,並使用實際電子收費(Electronic TollCollection, ETC)資料加以驗證模式之精確性,經由平均絕對誤差(Mean Absolute Percentage Errors, MAPE)以及均方根百分誤差(Root Mean Square Percentage Errors, RMSPE)顯示,車輛為基礎模式之RMSPE小於26%,MAPE小於20%;車流為基礎模式之RMSPE小於12%,MAPE小於10%,本研究所發展之模式具有合理之預測結果。
Travel time prediction on traffic corridors and urban arterials is important as it can allow motorists to avoid congestion and incidents as well as improve network efficiency. It is also a basic output component in application of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIMS) and Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS). This research aims at constructing a simulation-based travel time prediction model for traffic corridors. The simulation-assignment model, DynaTAIWAN is utilized to predict the travel time based on two approaches, a flow-based model and a vehicle-based model. Dynamic origin-destination (O-D)estimation and prediction procedure is developed to prepare O-D demand data,and the estimated O-D flows are used within DynaTAIWAN to simulate vehicle movements. The developed framework is illustrated for a traffic corridor and validated through empirical data. Empirical data for signalized urban network and the travel time from electronic toll stations are used to validate the model.Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) and root mean square percentage errors (RMSPE) are less than 20% and 26% for the vehicle-based model, and less than 10% and 12% for the flow-based model, respectively. The results show the proposed models can produce accurate predictions with minimum mean absolute percentage errors and root mean square percentage errors.
期刊論文
1.魏健宏、林士傑、李穎(20031200)。高速公路客運車輛旅行時間預測之實證評析。運輸計劃,32(4),651-679。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.汪志忠、黃國平、鄭雅云(20081200)。臺灣地區汽車持有預測模式之建構與評估:ARMAX之應用。運輸學刊,20(4),405-424。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Ashok, K.、Ben-Akiva, M.(2000)。Alternative Approaches for Real-time Estimation and Prediction of Time-dependent Original-destination Flows。Transportation Science,34(1),21-36。  new window
4.Lin, W. H.、Kulkarni, A.、Mirchandani, P.(2006)。Short-term Arterial Travel Time Prediction for Advanced Traveler Information Systems。Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems,10(1),41-43。  new window
5.Van Lint, J. W. C.、Hoogendoorn, S. P.、Zuylen, H. J.(2006)。Accurate Freeway Travel Time Prediction with State-Space Neural Networks under Missing Data。Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies,13(5-6),247-260。  new window
6.Chen, H.、Grant-Muller, S.、Mussone, L.、Montgomery, F.(2001)。A Study of Hybrid Neural Network Approaches and the Effects of Missing Data on Traffic Forecasting。Neural Computing and Application,10(3),277-286。  new window
會議論文
1.Oh, J. S.、Jayakrishnan, R.、Recker, W.(2002)。Section Travel Time Estimation from Point Detection。  new window
2.Ruiz, J. N.、Unnikrisjnan, A.、Waller, S.(2007)。Integrated Traffic Simulation-Statistical Analysis Framework for the Online Prediction of Freeway Travel Time。  new window
3.Guin, A.(2006)。Travel Time Prediction Using a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Time Series Model493-498。  new window
4.Li, R., Rose, G.、Sarvi, M.(2007)。Predicting Travel Time and Its Variability in the Short Term。  new window
5.Wang, J.、Chang, G. L.(2007)。Empirical Analysis of Missing Data Issues for ATIS Applications: Travel Time Prediction。  new window
6.Matsumura, S.、Yamashita, H.、Iwaki, S.、Sugimura, H.(1998)。Experimental Verification of Travel Time Prediction Method。  new window
研究報告
1.胡大瀛、何志宏、李維聰、董啟崇、溫傑華、廖彩雲、陳朝輝(2004)。區域級智慧型運輸系統示範計劃-核心交通分析與預測系統(第一、二年期)。  延伸查詢new window
2.董啟崇、胡守任、陶治中、張貴貞(2004)。智慧型交通資訊蒐集、處理、 傳播與旅行者行為系列之研究-號誌化道路路況資訊偵測方法與格式訂定。  延伸查詢new window
3.胡守任、張勝雄、劉士仙(2005)。智慧型交通資訊蒐集、處理、傳播與旅行者行為系列之研究-號誌化道路路況資訊偵測方法與格式訂定。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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