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外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
以數位口碑為基礎之流行性商品銷售預測模式
書刊名:
資訊管理學報
作者:
范有寧
/
黃心惟
/
陳靜枝
作者(外文):
Fan, Yu-neng
/
Huang, Hsin-wei
/
Chen, Ching-chin
出版日期:
2012
卷期:
19:1
頁次:
頁27-50
主題關鍵詞:
流行性商品
;
數位口碑
;
銷售預測
;
文本挖掘
;
需求管理
;
Fashion product
;
Electronic word-of-mouth
;
Sales forecasts
;
Text-mining
;
Demand management
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
1
) 博士論文(
1
) 專書(
1
) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
1
共同引用:0
點閱:25
市場瞬息萬變,企業必需不斷調整腳步,才有機會取得先機,而企業的採購 與生產計劃源頭即是銷售預測,足見銷售預測的重要性。即使如此,企業在銷售 起伏較大的流行性商品上的銷售預測仍不是非常準確。從文獻探討中可知,口碑 是影響消費者購買的動機之一,消費者可由身邊的親朋好友口中獲得口碑,亦可 利用網際網路取得數位口碑。但過去只對口碑形成的因素與影響層面做研究,而 未實際量化口碑對銷售數字的影響,故本研究欲將數位口碑實際應用在銷售預測 上。 本研究提出一將數位口碑運用於銷售預測之演算法,分成兩個階段進行流行 性商品之銷售預測,首先自動擷取網路中的商品相關討論文章,利用簡單貝氏分 類器判斷文章的評價,並將其轉換成量化評價以用作預測。除了建立多個目標函 式以釐清口碑與銷售量的關係外,同時亦嘗試各種時期的口碑作為自變數,以決 定口碑與銷售量的期間差距為何。最後找出所有組合中預測誤差最小,且具效度 的模型用作預測,以提升流行性商品銷售預測的準確度。本研究以台灣知名連鎖 藥妝店的十大熱銷商品為樣本,發現本模型適用具話題性、能在網路上引起足夠 的討論量商品。且其預測誤差皆低於常見的移動平均法、指數平滑法、趨勢指數 平滑法等。可知將本模型應用於流行性商品銷售預測時,可有效地增進預測準確 度。
以文找文
Forecasts are essential to the business’s decision making and planning processes. Better forecasting can contribute to better price structuring and better inventory management. However, it is a challenging problem owing to the volatility of demand which depends on many factors. The situation is especially prominent in fashion product due to its sales versatility. Past research shows that disseminating information through word-of-mouth communication is one of the most effective mediums for relaying important product and company information. It not only plays an important role in the evaluation of products but also plays an important role in society as well. In this study, an automatic mining approach is proposed to resolve the aforementioned issues. A text mining technique and Naive Bayes classifier will be used to determine the rating of each product-related article extracted from the Internet. Based on regression model, some target functions have been designed to clarify the relationship between the rating of world-of-mouse and the sales. Performances of our model are evaluated by the real sales data of a large cosmetic chain store in Taiwan. The proposed method is proved to outperform several traditional sales forecasting methods. Therefore, we believe that this model can effectively enhance the prediction accuracy when applied to fashion products.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Sebastiani, Fabrizio(2002)。Machine Learning in Automated Text Categorization。ACM Computing Surveys,34(1),1-47。
2.
Golder, P. N.、Tellis, G. J.(1997)。Will It Ever Fly? Modeling the Takeoff of Really New Consumer Durables。Marketing Science,16(3),256-270。
3.
Olshavsky, R. W.、Granbois, D. H.(1979)。Consumer Decision Making-fact or Fiction?。Journal of Consumer Research,6(2),93-100。
4.
Dalrymple, D. J.(1987)。Sales forecasting practices: results from a United States survey。International Journal of Forecasting,3(3/4),379-391。
5.
Hall, M.、Frank, E.、Holmes, G.、Pfahringer, B.、Reutemann, P.、Witten, Ian H.(2009)。The WEKA data mining software: an update。ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter,11(1),10-18。
6.
Bansal, Harvir S.、Voyer, Peter A.(20001100)。Word-of-Mouth Processes within a Service Purchase Decision Context。Journal of Service Research,3(2),166-177。
7.
Gelb, B.、Johnson, M.(1995)。Word-of-mouth communication: Causes and consequences。Journal of Health Care Marketing,15(3),54-58。
8.
Ratchford, Brian T.、Talukdar, Debabrata、Lee, Myung-Soo(2001)。A Model of Consumer Choice of the Internet as an Information Source。International Journal of Electronic Commerce,5(3),7-21。
9.
Klepper, S.(1996)。Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle。The American Economic Review,86(3),562-583。
10.
Hennig-Thurau, Thorsten、Gwinner, Kevin P.、Walsh, Gianfranco、Gremler, Dwayne D.(2004)。Electronic Word-of-Mouth via Consumer-Opinion Platforms: What Motivates Consumers to Articulate Themselves on the Internet?。Journal of Interactive Marketing,18(1),38-52。
11.
Arndt, Johan A.(1967)。Role of Product-Related Conversations in the Diffusion of a New Product。Journal of Marketing Research,4(3),291-295。
12.
Buttle, Francis A.(1998)。Word of mouth: understanding and managing referral marketing。Journal of Strategic Marketing,6(3),241-254。
13.
Yang, H.-C.、Lee, C.-H.(2008)。Image semantics discovery from web pages for semantic-based image retrieval using self-organizing maps。Expert Systems with Applications,34(1),266-279。
14.
Fisher, M.、Rajaram, K.(2000)。Accurate retail testing of fashion merchandise。methodology and application,19(3),266-278。
15.
Geurts, M.D.、Whitlark, D.B.(2000)。Six ways to make sales forecasts more accurate。The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems,18(4),21-30。
16.
Gremler, D.D.、Gwinner, K.P.、Brown, S.W.(2001)。Generating positive Word-of-Mouth communication through customer-employee Relationships。International Journal of Service Industry Management,12(1),44-59。
17.
Izumi, K.、Matsui, H.、Matsuo, Y.(2007)。Integration of artificial market simulation and text mining for market analysis。Advances in Hybrid information Technology,4413,404-413。
18.
Jain, C.L.(1998)。Quick and easy ways to monitor forecasts。Journal of Business Forecasting Methods and Systems,17(2),2-30。
19.
Kahn, K.B.(1998)。Benchmarking sales forecasting performance measures。Journal of Business Forecasting,17(4),19-23。
20.
Kuo, R. J.、Xue, K. C.(1999)。Fuzzy neural networks with application to sales forecasting。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,108(2),123-143。
21.
Lo, S.(2008)。Web service quality control based on text mining using support vector machine。Expert Systems with Applications,34(1),603-610。
22.
Polli, R.、Cook, V.(1969)。Validity of the product fife cycle。The Journal of Business,42(4),385-400。
23.
Schrieber, J.(2005)。Demand visibility improves demand forecasts。Journal of Business Forecasting,24(3),32-37。
會議論文
1.
Huang, J.、Lu, J.、Ling, C.X.(2003)。Comparing naive Bayes, decision trees, and SVM with AUC and accuracy553-556。
2.
Kroha, P.、Baeza-Yates, R.、Krellner, B.(2006)。Text mining of business news for forecasting171-175。
3.
Sakurai, S.、Ueno, K.(2004)。Analysis of daily business reports based on sequential text mining method。Hague, Netherlands。
圖書
1.
Chopra, Sunil、Meindl, Peter(2001)。Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning, and Operation。Prentice-Hall。
2.
Salton, Gerald、McGill, Michael J.(1983)。Introduction to modern information retrieval。McGraw-Hill。
3.
Witten, Ian H.、Frank, Eibe(2005)。Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques。Amsterdam:Morgan Kaufmann。
4.
Sheikh, K.(2003)。Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRP II) with an Introduction to ERP, SCM, and CRM。
5.
Taylor, B.W.(2004)。Introduction to Management Science。Upper Saddle River, USA.。
6.
Ting, T.-W.(2007)。A collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment solution for retail industry。Department of Information Management。Taipei, Taiwan。
7.
Black, K.(2004)。Business Statistics: For Contemporary Decision Making。Hoboken, USA.。
8.
Bnext(2008)。Business Next Publishing Corp。Taipei。
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