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題名:
Stock Series Holiday Regressors Generated from Flow Series Holiday Regressors
書刊名:
臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者:
Findley, David F.
/
Monsell, Brian C.
/
侯介澤
作者(外文):
Hou, Chieh-tse
出版日期:
2012
卷期:
43:1
頁次:
頁71-118
主題關鍵詞:
投資時間序列
;
季節調整
;
節日效果
;
移動節日
;
預測
;
復活節效應
;
中國農曆春節效應
;
Inventory time series
;
Seasonal adjustment
;
Holiday effects
;
Moving holidays
;
Forecasting
;
Easter effects
;
Chinese new year effects
;
X-12-ARIMA
;
X-13ARIMA-SEATS
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
1
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
1
共同引用:
6
點閱:28
存量時間序列變數,例如:月底的庫存,即為每月之流入與流出量所產生之累計之加總,亦是為每月淨流量之累計。藉由類似存量交易日迴歸變數的計算方式,本文介紹如何經由流量序列之節日迴歸變數的累加,計算出存量序列之節日迴歸變數。當流量變數具有標準特性時,則可利用本文所提出之簡單且實用的方法導出存量序列之節日迴歸變數。本文分別檢驗復活節效應對美國製造業存貨量的影響,以及中國農曆春節效應對臺灣經濟指標存貨量的影響。本文為了上述分析所建構的模型、預測和圖形結果,皆顯示此方法可以有效的處理存量節日效果。亦如流量的節日變數分析,本文的估計結果顯示,存量的節日效果通常大於交易日效果,但小於季節性效果。
以文找文
Stock economic time series, such as end-of-month inventories, arise as the cumulative sum of monthly inflows and outflows over time, i.e., as accumulations of monthly net flows. In this article, we derive holiday regressors for stock series from cumulative sums of flow-series holiday regressors. This is similar to how stock trading day regressors have been derived. The stock holiday regressors from this approach have a very simple and appealing form when the flow regressors have standard properties. The modeling, forecasting and graphical results we present, for Easter effects in U.S. manufacturing inventories and for Chinese New Year effects in economic indicator inventory series of Taiwan, confirm the utility of this first general approach to modeling stock holiday effects. As with estimated holiday effects from flow series, we find that stock holiday effects are usually larger than trading day effects but smaller than seasonal effects.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Burnham, Kenneth P.、Anderson, David R.(2004)。Multimodel Inference: Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection。Sociological Methods & Research,33(2),261-304。
2.
Bell, W. R.、Hillmer, S. C.(1983)。Modeling time series with calendar variation。Journal of the American Statistical Association,78,526-534。
3.
Hurvich, Clifford M.、Tsai, Chih-Ling(1989)。Regression and Time Series Model Selection in Small Samples。Biometrika,76(2),297-307。
4.
Findley, David F.(2005)。Asymptotic Second Moment Properties of out-of Sample Forecast Errors of Misspecified Regarima Models and the Optimality of GLS。Statistica Sinica,15(2),447-476。
5.
Klein, L. R.(1950)。Stock and Flow Analysis in Economics。Economica,17,236-252。
6.
林金龍、劉天賜(20030300)。Modeling Lunar Calendar Holiday Effects in Taiwan。臺灣經濟預測與政策,33(2),1-37。
延伸查詢
7.
Brunner, K.(1950)。Stock and Flow Analysis: Discussion。Econometrica,18(3),247-251。
8.
Fellner, W.、Somers, H. M.(1950)。Stock and Flow Analysis: Comment。Econometrica,18(3),242-245。
9.
Fellner, W.、Somers, H. M.(195007)。Stock and Flow Analysis: Note on the Discussion。Econometrica,18(3),247-251。
10.
Findley, D. F.(2005)。Some Recent Developments and Directions in Seasonal Adjustment。Journal of Official Statistics,21,343-365。
11.
Findley, D. F.(2007)。Optimality of GLS for One-Step-Ahead Forecasting with RegARIMA and Related Models When the Regression Is Misspecified。Econometric Theory,23,1083-1107。
12.
Findley, D. F.、Monsell, B. C.(2009)。Modeling Stock Trading Day Effects Under Flow Day-of-Week Effect Constraints。Journal of Official Statistics,25,415-430。
13.
Findley, D. F.、Potscher, B. M.、Wei, C.-Z.(2004)。Modeling of Time Series Arrays by Multistep Prediction or Likelihood Methods。Journal of Econometrics,118,151-187。
14.
Klein, L. R.(195007)。Stock and Flow Analysis: Further Comment。Econometrica,18(3),242-245。
會議論文
1.
Brian C. Monsell(2007)。The X-13A-S Seasonal Adjustment Program。the 2007 Federal Committee On Statistical Methodology Research Conference。
2.
Monsell, B. C.(2009)。Update on the development of X-13ARIMA-SEATS。Joint Statistical Meetings。
3.
Akaike, H.(1973)。Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle。The Second International Symposium on Information Theory。Budapest:Akademiai Kiado。267-281。
研究報告
1.
Bell, W. R.(1984)。Seasonal Decomposition of Deterministic Effects。Washington, DC.:U.S. Census Bureau。
2.
Bell, W. R.(1995)。Correction to Seasonal Decomposition of Deterministic Effects。Washington, DC.:Statistical Research Division, U.S. Census Bureau。
圖書
1.
M3(2008)。Instruction Manual for Reporting on the Monthly Survey M3: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders。Washington, DC:U.S. Census Bureau。
2.
Taniguchi, M.、Kakizawa, Y.(2000)。Asymptotic Theory of Statistical Inference of Time Series。New York:Springer-Verlag。
3.
U.S. Census Bureau(2009)。X-12-ARIMA Reference Manual, Version 0.3。Washington, DC:U.S. Census Bureau。
4.
U.S. Census Bureau(2011)。X-12-ARIMA Reference Manual, Version 0.3。Washington, DC:U.S. Census Bureau。
其他
1.
Aslaksen, H.(2010)。The Mathematics of the Chinese Calendar。
2.
Bednarek, M.(2007)。The Dates of Easter for 500 Years,http://mbednarek/easter.php。
3.
Findley, D. F.,Soukup, R. J.(2000)。Modeling and Model Selection for Moving Holidays,Alexandria, VA:American Statistical Association。
4.
Gómez, V.,Maravall, A.(1997)。Programs TRAMO and SEATS: Instructions for the User,Ministerio de Economíay Hacienda, Direccíon General de Análisisy Programacíon Presupuestaria。
5.
Monsell, B. C.(2011)。GENHOL: A Utility That Generates User-Defined Moving Holiday Regressors for X-12-ARIMA,http://www.census.gov/srd/www/genhol/index.html。
6.
Montes, M. J.(1998)。Calculation of the Ecclesiastical Calendar,http://www.smart.net/~mmontes/ec-cal.html。
7.
Titova, N.,Monsell, B. C.(2009)。Detecting Stock Calendar Effects in U.S. Census Bureau Inventory Series,Alexandria, VA:American Statistical Association。
8.
Wikipedia Contributors(2009)。Stock and Flow, Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_and_flow。
圖書論文
1.
Cleveland, W. P.、Grupe, M. R.(1983)。Modeling Time Series When Calendar Effects Are Present。Applied Time Series Analysis of Economic Data。Washington, DC:U.S. Census Bureau。
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