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題名：糧食安全風險衡量與新脆弱性指標之建構
書刊名：農業與經濟
作者：顏晃平／吳榮杰／張靜文
作者(外文)：Yen, Huang-ping／Woo, Rhung-jieh／Chang, Jing-wen
出版日期：2014
卷期：52
頁次：頁45-79
主題關鍵詞：糧食安全；脆弱性分析；風險值；條件風險值；Food security；Vulnerability analysis；Value at risk；Conditional value at risk
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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本文將從風險管理角度切入，藉由風險值分析方法與脆弱性指標建構，不但能系統性了解我國糧食安全現行或潛在的風險水準，尚可對各構面指標風險進行分解。經由實證評估結果可發現：對於超出風險值而未觀察到之潛在風險部分亦應加以注意。其次，風險值偏低指標雖然面臨的變動率風險較小，但同時隱含對該指標倚賴性偏高（如進口能源依存度、進口來源集中度）或是指標本身具固定特性（如可耕地面積），通常其潛在平均風險會較高。最後，就我國而言，糧食安全風險易受全球構面的影響，在評估時應將全球構面納入一起考量。當採用本方法進行我國糧食安全風險評估時，具有符合世界性的糧食安全宣言精神、可充分反應本國糧食安全風險實際狀況，及納入信賴機率和明確數值估算，能對糧食安全風險進行明確描述，因而可有效做為糧食安全風險評估的參考工具。
This paper aims to measure the Taiwan's food security by using the value at risk (VaR), and try to construct the vulnerability indices. Our method is not only to assess, but also to decompose real or potential risk on the food security systematically. The results show that the potential risk beyond VaR should be more attentive. Also, the lower of VaR are much less risk, but it may be facing higher average potential risk. A global theme is easy to affect Taiwan's food security, and we must take care of these factors when assessing. Our method assessing food security is following the FAO's declaration, including probability to describe the potential risk, and truly reacting our country food security. For the above reasons, applying our method might be one of the fitting tools to assess food security in Taiwan.
期刊論文
1.Bogale, A.(2012)。Vulnerability of Smallholder Rural Households to Food Insecurity in Eastern Ethiopia。Food Security，4(4)，581-591。  new window
2.Gilbert, Christopher L.(201006)。How to Understand High Food Prices。Journal of Agricultural Economics，61(2)，398-425。  new window
3.Haddad, L.、Kennedy, E.、Sullivan, J.(1994)。Choice of Indicators for Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring。Food Policy，19(3)，329-343。  new window
4.Headey, D.、Ecker, O.(2013)。Rethinking the Measurement of Food Security: from First Principles to Best Practice。Food Security，5(3)，327-343。  new window
5.Liu, J.、Men, C.、Cabrera, V. E.、Uryasev, S.、Fraisse, C. W.(2008)。Optimizing Crop Insurance under Climate Variability。Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology，47，2572-2580。  new window
6.Luan, Y.、Cui, X.、Ferrat, M.(2013)。Historical Trends of Food Self-Sufficiency in Africa。Food Security，5，393-405。  new window
7.Maxwell, D. G.(1996)。Measuring Food Insecurity: The Frequency and Severity of Coping Strategies。Food Policy，21(3)，291-303。  new window
8.Maxwell, D.、Ahiadeke, C.、Levin, C.、Armar-Klemesu, M.、Zakariah, S.、Lamptey, G. M.(1999)。Alternative Food-Security Indicators: Revisiting the Frequency and Severity of Coping Strategies。Food Policy，24(4)，411-429。  new window
9.Mechlem, Kerstin(2004)。Food Security and the Right to Food in the Discourse of the United Nations。European Law Journal，10(5)，631-648。  new window
10.Yeh, C. Y.、Liao, P. S.、C. Y. Liu,、Liu, J. F.、Chang, H. Y.(2009)。An Empirical Study of Taiwan's Food Security Index。Public Health Nutrition，13(7)，1056-1063。  new window
11.吳榮杰(19990900)。從貿易自由化看糧食安全。臺灣土地金融季刊，36(3)=141，69-91。  延伸查詢new window
12.陳明健、闕雅文(20000600)。農業的環境保育及糧食安全效益評估。臺灣土地金融季刊，37(2)，209-237。  延伸查詢new window
13.陳建元、王葳、胡士文、林韋婷(20100600)。糧價穩定、糧食安全與制度設計。農業經濟叢刊，15(2)，59-97。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.曾偉君、李欣恩(20051200)。臺灣水稻田之糧食安全及景觀價值。農業經濟半年刊，78，39-79。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Artzner, P.、Delbaen, F.、Eber, M.、Heath, D.(1997)。Thinking Coherently。Risk，10(11)，68-71。  new window
16.Dilley, M.、Boudreau, T. E.(2001)。Coming to Terms with Vulnerability: A Critique of the Food Security Definition。Food Policy，26(3)，229-247。  new window
17.Jorion, P.(2002)。How informative are Value-at-Risk disclosures?。The Accounting Review，77，911-931。  new window
18.Pinstrup-Andersen, P.(2009)。Food Security: Definition and Measurement。Food Security，1(1)，5-7。  new window
19.Artzner, Philippe、Delbaen, Freddy、Eber, Jean-Marc、Heath, David(1999)。Coherent measures of risk。Mathematical Finance，9(3)，203-228。  new window
研究報告
1.Kim, B. R.、Jun, I. S.、Yoon, J. Y.(2010)。Food Security and Establishment of Distribution System of Overseas Agriculture。  new window
圖書
1.Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs(2009)。UK Food Security Assessment: Detailed Analysis。London：Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Press。  new window
2.Economist Intelligence Unit(2012)。Global Food Security Index 2012。London：Economist Intelligence Unit Press。  new window
3.Food and Agriculture Organization(1996)。Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action。Rome：Food and Agriculture Organization Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Maxwell, S.、Smith, M.(1992)。Household Food Security: A Conceptual Review。Household Food Security: Concepts, Indicators, Measurements。Rome：New York：IFAD：UNICEF Press。  new window
2.Barrett, C. B.(2002)。Food Security and Food Assistance Programs’。Handbook of Agricultural Economics。Netherlands：Elsevier B. V.。  new window
 
 
 
 
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