邊際減量成本分析已在國內外廣泛應用於推估能源技術節能與減碳潛能，以作為政府擬訂未來能源發展策略之重要依據。而臺灣2050能源供需情境模擬器(Taiwan 2050 Calculator)為工業技術研究院與英國政府合作建構之一系列工具，藉由組合能源供給部門、住商部門、工業部門、運輸部門等不同技術之未來發展情境，以技術端的角度探討未來不同能源組合發展情境之下，對社會各層面之衝擊，包含能源安全、能源價格及環境衝擊等。本研究為基於臺灣2050能源供需情境模擬器之模型架構下，以既有130項技術發展情境之設定，整合建構成69項技術或措施之減量成本分析計算。 本研究中的減量成本分析是以未來不導入新技術或措施為基準情境，計算原本在臺灣2050能源供需情境模擬器已經定義好的積極情境與前瞻情境之能源消費量與成本投入，這些數值與基準情境 之差異即為節能量與增額成本投入，接著帶入各類能源未來推估之排放係數與能源價格即可獲得減量成本數值。本研究將呈現各項目減量成本計算結果，並以部門別呈現上述各項數值結果。所納入 計算之項目中，以電力部門相關技術與措施最具排放減量潛力，而以運輸及照明相關項目最具減量淨效益。而總二氧化碳排放減量潛能於2030年，在積極情境下約為150百萬噸，在前瞻情境則約為 200百萬噸。 國際上邊際減量成本分析之運用逐漸廣泛，其相關研究結果可作為未來能源開發或產業發展策略上之重要依據。因為技術進步，各技術與措施之數據結果隨時間有所不同，決策者可依此擬訂未來特定節能或排放減量目標下的行動方案。

Marginal abatement cost analysis has been widely used in exploring the potential measures for energy saving and emission reduction. It provides governments with solid reference in making future energy development strategy. Taiwan 2050 Calculator is an energy simulation tool that can calculate several aspects of impacts to Taiwan, such as energy security, energy price and environmental impacts, based on the given future scenario configurations on 130 energy technology or measures. This study is to construct the marginal abatement cost model and analyze the result of different scenario configurations based on the existing Taiwan 2050 Calculator framework. In this study, the Base Scenario is defined as “do nothing” scenario, the calculations of emission reduction and marginal abatement cost of all technology or measures are related to the outcome of Base Scenario. Two future development scenarios are defined and analyzed: Ambitious and Very Ambitious scenarios. These two scenarios had well defined and configured in the Taiwan 2050 Calculator already, and this study constructed essential calculation to generate emission reduction and marginal abatement cost figures of technology or measures. This result shows, in 2030, Ambitious scenarios will have the potential to reduce 150 million tons of carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan, while Very Ambitious scenarios will bring about 200 million tons of reduction. This research investigates the reduction potential and cost of a wide of energy technology or measures. The result can be a solid reference for the government to realize appropriate energy mix in the future.