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來源文獻資料
摘要
外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
核恐怖主義的嚇阻--概念與應用之探討
書刊名:
淡江國際與區域研究
作者:
林泰和
作者(外文):
Lin, Tai-ho
出版日期:
2013
卷期:
2:2
頁次:
頁1-37
主題關鍵詞:
核恐怖主義
;
恐怖主義
;
嚇阻
;
核戰略
;
戰略
;
Nuclear terrorism
;
Terrorism
;
Deterrence
;
Nuclear strategy
;
Strategy
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:0
共同引用:0
點閱:18
核恐怖主義對傳統嚇阻概念構成非常嚴峻的挑戰。相較於傳統國家行為者,可以互相施行嚇阻戰略,恐怖組織將很難嚇阻。原因是恐怖組織與恐怖份子缺乏一般國家行為者所要保護的核心價值,也是一般嚇阻的對象,如領土防衛、國民保護,生命價值等。尤其是取得核武的恐怖組織,因為更具威脅性,增加嚇阻的難度與風險,遑論事後對其報復或採取先制攻擊。2003年5月伊斯蘭學者發出教令,使核武對抗異教徒的使用合理化,因此恐怖份子使用核武對抗國際社會的手段,成為一種夢魘。恐怖組織為非國家行為者,其運作模式不受到主權國家對於禁止使用大規模毀滅武器的規範所節制。同時,大規模毀滅武器的獨特優點,也會超過恐怖份子對核武規範的考量。因此綜合觀之,核恐怖主義似乎沒有易毀性,一旦恐怖份子取得核武,他們將可能毫不遲疑加以使用,包含嚇阻與攻擊。本論文將探討嚇阻概念對核恐怖主義的適用性。在此問題之下,首先討論核恐怖主義的威脅與風險,然後探討嚇阻在反恐脈絡下的意義,接下來分析核恐怖主義的發展與本質,最後探討對核恐怖主義的可能嚇阻方式,分析這種嚇阻對核恐怖主義有何機會與挑戰。
以文找文
Nuclear terrorism sternly challenges the traditional concept of deterrence. Compared to the traditional state actors which can be mutually deterred, it will be very difficult to deter terrorist organizations. Since terrorist organizations lack core values that traditional state actors possess, such as territorial defense, population protection and emphasis of human lives. Terrorist groups, especially those armed with nuclear weapons, are more threatening. Therefore, deterrence of nuclear terrorists is difficult and risky, not to speak of retaliation and preemption against them.In May 2003, Islamic scholars issued a fatwa, which justify the use of nuclear weapons against infidels. Therefore, the scenario that terrorists could use nuclear weapons as a means against the international community becomes a nightmare. As nonstate actors, terrorist organizations are not subject to norms which prohibit the use of weapons of mass destruction abided by sovereign states. Meanwhile, the unique advantage of weapons of mass destruction will overweigh the concerns of terrorists regarding to the norms regarding to the prohibition of use of nuclear weapons. Accordingly, nuclear terrorism seems not to be vulnerable, once the terrorists obtain nuclear weapons, they will likely not hesitate to use them by means of deterrence and attack.This paper explores the concept of deterrence and its applicability to nuclear terrorism. The first section discusses the threat and risk of nuclear terrorism. Secondly the concept of deterrence in the context of nuclear terrorism will be analyzed. The third part scrutinizes the development and nature of nuclear terrorism. Finally, the paper inquires different approaches of deterrence of nuclear terrorism and the opportunities and challenges offered by those approaches.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Parachini, John(2003)。Putting WMD Terrorism into Perspective。The Washington Quarterly,26(4),37-50。
2.
Betts, Richard(2002)。The Soft Underbelly of American Primacy: Tactical Advantages of Terror。Political Science Quarterly,117(1),19-36。
3.
Auerswald, David P.(2006)。Deterring Nonstate WMD Attacks。Political Science Quarterly,21(4),543-568。
4.
Corr, Anders(2005)。Deterrence of Nuclear Terror: A Negligence Doctrine。The Nonproliferation Review,12(1),127-147。
5.
Castillo, Jasen J.(2003)。Nuclear Terrorism: Why Deterrence still matters。Current History,102(668),426-431。
6.
Bracken, Paul(2003)。The Structure of the Second Nuclear Age。Orbis,47(3),399-413。
7.
Helfstein, Scott(2009)。White Paper Prepared for The Secretary of Defense Task Force on DoD Nuclear Weapons Management: Tradeoffs and Paradoxes: Terrorism, Deterrence and Nuclear Weapons。Studies in Conflict & Terrorism,32(9),776-801。
8.
Gearson, John(2012)。Deterring Conventional Terrorism: From Punishment to Denial and Resilience。Contemporary Security Policy,33(1),171-198。
9.
Fisher, Uri(2007)。Deterrence, Terrorism and American Values。Homeland Security Affairs,3(1),1-17。
10.
Fischer, Dietrich(2005)。The Real Threat is Nuclear Terrorism。Peace Review,17(4),451-453。
11.
Lonsdale, David(2013)。Obama's Second Term: Time for a New Discourse on Nuclear Strategy。Comparative Strategy,32(5),459-473。
12.
Lieberman, Elli(2013)。Deterring Terrorism: Elusive, Marginal, or Strategic?。Security Policy,34(1),233-238。
13.
Levi, Michael(2008)。Stopping Nuclear Terrorism--The Dangerous Allure of a Perfect Defense。Foreign Affairs,87(1),131-134。
14.
Levi, Michael A.(2004)。Deterring Nuclear Terrorism。Issues in Science and Technology,20(3),70-73。
15.
Kydd, Andrew H.、Walter, Barbara F.(2006)。The Strategies of Terrorism。International Security,31(1),49-80。
16.
Talmadge, Caitlin(2007)。Deterring a Nuclear 9/11。Washington Quarterly,30(2),21-34。
17.
Schelling, Thomas C.(1982)。Thinking about Nuclear Terrorism。International Security,6(4),61-77。
18.
Ruhle, Michael(2007)。Enlightenment in the second nuclear age。International Affairs,83(3),511-522。
19.
Potter, William C.(2008)。Nuclear Terrorism and the Global Politics of Civilian HEU Elimination。Nonproliferation Review,15(2),135-157。
20.
Whiteneck, Daniel(2005)。Deterring terrorists: Thoughts on a framework。Washington Quarterly,28(3),187-199。
21.
Ward, Wilson(2008)。The Myth of Nuclear Deterrence。Nonproliferation Review,15(3),421-439。
22.
Van De Velde, James R.(2010)。The Impossible Challenge of Deterring "Nuclear Terrorism" by Al Qaeda。Studies in Conflict & Terrorism,33(8),682-699。
23.
Trager, Robert F.、Zagorcheva, Dessialava P.(2006)。Deterring Terrorism-It Can Be Done。International Security,30(3),87-123。
24.
Ikle, Fred Charles(1996)。The Second Coming of the Nuclear Age。Foreign Affairs,75(1),119-128。
25.
Braun, Chaim、Chyba, Christopher F.(2004)。Proliferation Rings: New Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime。International Security,29(2),5-49。
學位論文
1.
Bhattacharyya, Sudeshna(2006)。Third Party Deterrence as A Strategy to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism(碩士論文)。University of Texas at El Paso。
圖書
1.
Mearsheimer, John J.(1983)。Conventional Deterrence。Cornell University Press。
2.
Conte, Alex(2010)。Human Rights in the Prevention and Punishment of Terrorism。Heidelberg:Springer。
3.
Brodie, Bernard(1946)。The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Vower and World Order。New York:Harcourt, Brace and Company。
4.
Allison, Graham(2004)。Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe。New York:Henry Holt and Company。
5.
Freedman, Lawrence(2004)。Deterrence。Cambridge:Polity Press。
6.
Graham, Bob、Talent, Jim、AlHson, Graham(2008)。World at Risk: The Report of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism。New York:Vintage Books。
7.
Freedman, Lawrence(2003)。The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy。New York:Palgrave Macmillan。
8.
Ferguson, Charles D.、Potter, William C.(2004)。The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism。New York:Routledge。
9.
Davis, Paul K.、Jenkins, Brian Michael(2002)。Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda。Santa Monica, California:RAND Corporation。
10.
Levi, Michael(2007)。On Nuclear Terrorism。Cambridge:Harvard University Press。
11.
Jenkins, Brian M.(2008)。Will Terrorist Go Nuclear?。New York:Prometheus Books。
12.
Jenkins, Brian M.(1985)。The Future Course of International Terrorism。Santa Monica:RAND。
13.
Jenkins, Brian M.(1975)。Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?。Santa Monica:RAND。
14.
Perkovich, George、Mathews, Jessica T.、Cirincione, Joseph、Gottemoeller, Rose(2005)。Universal Compliance--A Strategy for Nuclear Security。Washington, D.C:Carnegie Endowment for International Peace。
15.
Payne, Keith B.(2008)。The Great American Gamble-Deterrence Theory and Practice from the Cold War to the Twenty-First Centur。Fairfax, Virginia:National Institute Press。
16.
Schelling, Thomas C.(1966)。Arms and Influences。New Haven:London:Yale University。
17.
鈕先鍾(1989)。核子時代的戰略問題。台北:軍事譯粹社。
延伸查詢
18.
Payne, Keith B.(1996)。Deterrence: in the Second Nuclear Age。The University Press of Kentucky。
19.
Schelling, Thomas C.(1960)。The Strategy of Conflict。Cambridge, Mass:Cambridge University Press。
20.
Morgan, Patrick M.(2003)。Deterrence Now。Cambridge University Press。
21.
Snyder, Glenn H.(1961)。Deterrence and Defense: Towards a Theory of National Security。Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press。
其他
1.
Shanker, Thom,Scmitt, Eric(20091219)。U.S. to Make Stopping Nuclear Terror Key Aim。
2.
Perry, William J.,Schlesinger, James R.(2009)。America's Strategic Posture--the Final Report of Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States,Washington D.C.:United States of Institute of Peace Press,。,http://media.usip.org/repofts/stfat_posture_report.pdf, 2009/12/14。
3.
White House Homeland Security Council(2009)。Planning Guidance for a Response to Nuclear Detonation,http://www.afrri.usuhs.mil/outreach/pdf/planning-guidance.pdf, 2009/07/27。
4.
US Department of Health and Human Services, Centres for Disease Control(2008)。Guidance on Emergent Responder Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for Response to CBRN Terrorism Incidents,http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/2008-132/pdfs/2008-132.pdf, 2009/07/27。
5.
(200607)。The Future of Terrorism,http://discovermagazine.com/2006/jul/cover/article_view?b_start:int=1&-C=, 2009/12/14。
6.
(2009)。Obama: Nuklear-Terrorismus gröβte Bedrohung,http://www.beflinkontor.de/10.07.2009/obama-nuklear-terrorismus-groesste-bedrohung.html, 2009/07/26。
7.
Klasra, Kaswar(20091210)。A Potential Source for Terrorists,http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/10-Dec-2009/A-potential-source-for-terrorists/1, 2009/12/14。
8.
Schelling, Thomas(20051208)。An Astonishing Sixty Years: The Legacy of Hiroshima,http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2005/schelling-lecture.pdf, 2008/09/17。
9.
(2009)。UN Security Council Resolution 1887,http://www.refworld.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/rwmain?docid=4abcd4792, 2013/11/24。
圖書論文
1.
Jenkins, B. M.(2008)。The New Age of Terrorism。Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism。New York, US:McGraw-Hill。
2.
Jenkins, Brian M.(1999)。International Tefrorism。The Use of Force--Military Power and International Polices。Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield。
3.
Howard, Russell D.(2008)。The New Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction。Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism。Boston:McGraw-Hill。
4.
Dunn, Lewis A.(2008)。Can Al Qaeda Be Deterred from Using Nuclear Weapons。Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism。Boston:McGraw-Hill。
5.
Whiteneck, Daniel(2008)。Can Al Qaeda Be Deterred from Using Nuclear Weapons。Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism。Boston:McGraw-Hill。
6.
O'Neil, Andrew(2008)。Terrorist Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction: How Serious Is the Threat。Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism。Boston:McGraw-Hill。
7.
Kapur, S. Paul(2009)。Deterring Nuclear Terrorists。Complex Deterrence-Strategy in the Global Age。Chicago:London:University of Chicago Press。
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