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引文資料
題名:
Financing National Health Insurance: The Challenge of Fast Population Aging
書刊名:
經濟論文叢刊
作者:
徐敏鐘
/
廖珮如
作者(外文):
Hsu, Minchung
/
Liao, Pei-ju
出版日期:
2015
卷期:
43:2
頁次:
頁145-182
主題關鍵詞:
全民健康保險
;
人口老化
;
Financing national health insurance
;
Population aging
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
3
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
3
共同引用:0
點閱:67
許多新興工業化國家正面臨或即將面臨快速人口老化的問題。有鑑於此,本文建構一個工作與儲蓄均為內生決定的動態隨機一般均衡模型,並利用此模型測量快速人口老化對全民健康保險財務狀況之衝擊。在新興工業化國家中,台灣人口老化速度與其他國家類似, 其老年人口占總人口比例將在20年內倍增;此外,台灣亦已於1995年實施全民健康保險。因此,本文選擇台灣作為分析的例子。本文研究結果指出,若人口老化的速度維持不變,在2050年台灣將需額外課徵16%的勞動所得稅以支應人口老化對全民健康保險財務的衝擊。本文也進一步考慮醫療價格上升速度的可能影響。我們發現,若醫療價格上升速度相較於總要素生產力成長速度過快,人口老化對全民健康保險財務的衝擊將無法單從課徵勞動所得稅支應。本文最後討論延後退休年齡和其他可能課稅方式對繳稅負擔和福利之影響。
以文找文
This paper studies the impact of rapid population aging on financing a national health insurance program, as anticipated and observed in many newly industrialized countries (NICs). A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous working and saving decisions is employed to quantify the impact. Taiwan, which has been implementing its National Health Insurance (NHI) since 1995 and whose elderly population ratio will double within 20 years, is selected as an example for our analysis. Our results suggest that an additional 16 percent labor income tax will be required in 2050 if the current trend of population aging cannot be improved. Moreover, the impact of medical price inflation is also discussed. We find that the NHI would be unsustainable if the annual growth rate of real medical prices is 2 percent higher than productivity growth. Finally, the fiscal and welfare effects of deferring retirement and financing NHI through different methods are discussed.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Färe, Rolf、Grosskopf, Shawna、Lee, Wen-Fu(2001)。Productivity and technical change: The case of Taiwan。Applied Economics,33(15),1911-1925。
2.
Chou, Shin-Yi、Liu, Jin-Tan、Hammitt, James K.(2003)。National Health Insurance and Precautionary Saving: Evidence from Taiwan。Journal of Public Economics,87(9/10),1873-1894。
3.
Chow, Gregory、Lin, An-loh(2002)。Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China: A Comparative Analysis。Journal of Comparative Economics,30(3),507-530。
4.
Reinhardt, Uwe E.(2003)。Does the Aging of the Population Really Drive the Demand for Health Care?。Health Affairs,22(6),27-39。
5.
Attanasio, Orazio、Kitao, Sagiri、Violante, Giovanni L.(2007)。Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform。Journal of Monetary Economics,54,144-198。
6.
Castañeda, Ana、Díaz-Giménez, Javier、Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor(2003)。Accounting for the US Earnings and Wealth Inequality。Journal of Political Economy,111(4),818-857。
7.
Chatterjee, Satyajit、Corbae, Dean、Nakajima, Makoto、Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor(2007)。A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default。Econometrica,75,1525-1589。
8.
Chou, Shin-Yi、Liu, Jin-Tan、Huang, Cliff J.(2004)。Health Insurance and Savings over the Life Cycle - A Semiparametric Smooth Coefficient Estimation。Journal of Applied Econometrics,19(3),295-322。
9.
De Nardi, Mariacristina、French, Eric、Jones, John Bailey(2010)。Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses。Journal of Political Economy,118(1),39-75。
10.
Heathcote, Jonathan(2005)。Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets。Review of Economic Studies,72,161-188。
11.
Heathcote, Jonathan、Storesletten, Kjetil、Violante, Giovanni L.(2008)。Insurance and Opportunities: A Welfare Analysis of Labor Market Risk。Journal of Monetary Economics,55,501-525。
12.
Huggett, Mark(1993)。The Risk-free Rate in Heterogeneous-agent Incomplete-insurance Economies。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,17,953-969。
13.
Ímrohoroğlu, Ayse(1989)。Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints。Journal of Political Economy,97,1364-1383。
14.
Jeske, Karsten、Kitao, Sagiri(2009)。U.S. Tax Policy and Health Insurance Demand: Can a Regressive Policy Improve Welfare?。Journal of Monetary Economics,56,210-221。
15.
Liang, Chi-Yuan(2002)。The International Comparison of Total Factor Productivity Changes。World Economy,25,1169-1195。
16.
Livshits, Igor、MacGee, James、Tertilt, Michele(2007)。Consumer Bankruptcy: A Fresh Start。American Economic Review,97,402-418。
17.
Palumbo, Michael G.(1999)。Uncertain Medical Expenses and Precautionary Saving near the End of the Life Cycle。Review of Economic Studies,66(2),395-421。
18.
Aiyagari, S. Rao(1994)。Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving。Quarterly Journal of Economics,109,659-684。
19.
Dormont, Brigitte、Grignon, Michel、Huber, Hélène(2006)。Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing。Health Economics,15,947-963。
20.
Hubbard, R. Glenn、Skinner, Jonathan、Zeldes, Stephen P.(1995)。Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance。Journal of Political Economy,103,360-399。
21.
Scholz, John Karl、Seshadri, Ananth、Khitatrakun, Surachai(2006)。Are Americans Saving 'Optimally' for Retirement?。Journal of Political Economy,114(4),607-643。
22.
Werblow, Andreas、Felder, Stefan、Zweifel, Peter(2007)。Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: A School of 'Red Herrings'?。Health Economics,16,1109-1126。
23.
Cheng, S. H.、Chiang, T. L.(1997)。The effect of universal health insurance on health care utilization in Taiwan: Results from a natural experiment。The Journal of the American Medical Association,278(2),89-93。
圖書
1.
Maddison, Angus(1989)。The World Economy in the 20th Century。Paris:OECD Development Centre。
圖書論文
1.
Attanasio, Orazio(1999)。Consumption。Handbook of Macroeconomics。Amsterdam:Elsevier。
2.
Attanasio, Orazio、Kitao, Sagiri、Violante, Giovanni L.(2011)。Financing Medicare: A General Equilibrium Analysis。Demography and the Economy。Chicago:University of Chicago Press。
3.
Bewley, Truman F.(1986)。Stationary Monetary Equilibrium with A Continuum of Independently Fluctuating Consumers。Contributions to Mathematical Economics in Honor of Gerard Debreu。Amsterdam:North-Holland。
4.
Kotlikoff, Laurence J.(1989)。Health Expenditures and Precautionary Savings。What Determines Savings?。Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press。
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