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題名:遺傳演算法在臺灣股價趨勢轉折點與波動訊號捕捉之應用
書刊名:輔仁管理評論
作者:林文修陳仕哲
作者(外文):Lin, Wen-shiuChen, Shi-zhe
出版日期:2015
卷期:22:3
頁次:頁1-33
主題關鍵詞:遺傳演算法技術分析趨勢轉折點波動訊號Genetic algorithmsTechnical analysisTurning pointsVolatility signal
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究主要目的是應用遺傳演算法(Genetic Algorithms, GA)協助投資人在瞬息萬變的股票市場,建構一個捕捉股價趨勢轉折點(turning point)的最適技術指標(Technical indicator)組合,以及資金分配比率的模型,藉以提升獲利與降低風險。本研究以GA的演化尋優特性,以二階段方式發展台灣股價趨勢轉折點與資金配置的波動捕捉模型;第一階段是利用股價具有波段漲跌的特性,以GA挖掘股價轉折點,藉以確認每個技術指標組合的最適值;最後,採用技術指標值與其平均線的「相對」數值;第二階段為發掘每個技術指標不同的買賣「權重」(Weights),藉由權重做為資金分配比率,做為股票的交易策略。本研究實驗結果發現:(1) 本研究的GA模型具有追蹤股價波動(volatility)與趨勢轉折點(turning point)的能力。實驗顯示GA模型在現貨交易與融資融券交易策略,都比買進持有(buy and hold)策略的報酬率高,而且融資融券又遠比現貨交易策略的獲利性大。(2) 在空頭市場(Bear Market),本研究模型明顯比買進持有策略在虧損實驗期的虧損較少,但在獲利實驗期時卻又獲利較大,顯示本研究模組具風險控制的能力。(3)本研究創新採用GA進行股價趨勢轉折點的技術指標組合的最佳化,以及技術指標的「相對」數值與「權重」資金配置的萃取,確實能在具有複雜與混沌特性的股票市場中,降低其不確定性與隨機性。
This research applied the genetic algorithms (GA) to construct a recommendation model, and this model assist investors to make investment decision. This model utilize stock price have wave band characteristic of ups and downs; find turning points of the stock price. And then cooperate with fund allocation to use, judge whether stocks should be bought or sold. The result of this research can be summed up for the following several points: (1) the profit of margin trading is higher. (2) In comparative analysis, the profit of this research model is higher than to buy and hold. (3) In the bear market, this research model is unlikely to get the positive profit, but it will be less than the ones that bought holding but suffer the loss. (4) This model apply “Relative Value” and “Weight”. This model can get the higher positive profit and control risk.
期刊論文
1.Beasley, D.、Bull, D. R.、Martin, R. R.(1993)。An overview of genetic algorithms: Part 1. Fundamentals。University computing,15,58-69。  new window
2.Korczak, J.、Roger, P.(2002)。Stock timing using genetic algorithm。Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry,18,121-134。  new window
3.Orito, Y.、Yamamoto, H.、Yamazaki, G.(2003)。Index fund selections with genetic algorithms and heuristic classifications。Computers and Industrial Engineering,45(1),97-109。  new window
4.Leigh, W.、Purvis, R.、Ragusa, J. M.(2002)。Forecasting the NYSE composite index with technical analysis, pattern recognizer, neural networks and genetic algorithm: a case study in romantic decision support。Decision Support Systems,32(4),361-377。  new window
5.Dymova, L.、Sevastianov, P.、Bartosiewicz, P.(2010)。A new approach to the rule-base evidential reasoning: Stock trading expert system application。Expert Systems with Applications,37(8),5564-5576。  new window
6.Bao, D.、Yang, Z.(2008)。Intelligent stock trading system by turning point confirming and probabilistic reasoning。Expert Systems with Applications,34(1),620-627。  new window
7.Booth, Ash、Gerding, Enrico、McGroarty, Frank(2014)。Automated trading with performance weighted random forests and seasonality。Expert Systems with Applications,41(8),3651-3661。  new window
8.Choudhurya, Subhabrata、Ghoshb, Subhajyoti、Bhattacharyac, Arnab、Fernandesd, Kiran Jude、Tiwarie, Manoj Kumar(2014)。A real time clustering and SVM based price-volatility prediction for optimal trading strategy。Neurocomputing,131,419-426。  new window
9.Chiam, S. C.、Tan, K. C.、Mamun, A. Al.(2009)。Investigating technical trading strategy via an multi-objective evolutionary platform。Expert Systems with Applications,36(7),10408-10423。  new window
10.Dhar, V.、Chou, D.(2001)。A comparison of nonlinear methods for predicting earnings surprises and returns。IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks,12,907-921。  new window
11.Geva, Tomer、Zahavi, Jacob(2014)。Empirical evaluation of an automated intraday stock recommendation system incorporating both market data and textual news。Decision Support Systems,57,212-223。  new window
12.Hsieh, Wen-liang G.、He, Huei-Ru(2014)。Informed trading, trading strategies and the information。Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,31,187-215。  new window
13.Lin, Wen-shiu、Yang, Chien-pei(20030600)。Application of Integral Value-investing Strategy with Genetic Algorithms。Tamsui Oxford Journal of Management Sciences,19(1),19-49。  new window
14.Lai, K. K.、Yu, L.、Wang, S.、Zhou, C.(2006)。A Double-Stage Genetic Optimization Algorithm for Portfolio Selection。Lecture Notes in Computer Science,4234,928-937。  new window
15.Li, Xiuquan、Deng, Zhidong、Luo, Jing(2009)。Trading strategy design in financial investment through a turning points prediction scheme。Expert Systems with Applications,36(4),7818-7826。  new window
16.Lin, C. M.、Gen, Mitsuo(2007)。An Effective Decision-Based Genetic Algorithm Approach to Multiobjective Portfolio Optimization Problem。Applied Mathematical Sciences,1(5),201-210。  new window
17.Wang, Fei、Yu, Philip L. H.、Cheung, David W.(2014)。Combining technical trading rules using particle swarm optimization。Expert Systems with Applications,41(6),3016-3026。  new window
18.Armano, G.、Marchesi, M.、Murru, A.(2005)。A hybrid genetic-neural architecture for stock indexes forecasting。Information Sciences,170(1),3-33。  new window
19.Xia, Yusen、Liu, B.、Wang, S.、Lai, K. K.(2000)。A Model for Portfolio Selection with Order of Expected Returns。Computers & Operations Research,27(5),409-422。  new window
20.Teixeira, Lamartine Almeida、De Oliveira, Adriano Lorena Inacio(2010)。A Method for Automatic Stock Trading Combining Technical Analysis and Nearest Neighbor Classification。Expert Systems with Applications,37(10),6885-6890。  new window
會議論文
1.林晏秀、侯佳利、陳稼興(2004)。利用遺傳演算法對股價反轉點的預測。2004智慧型資訊系統暨第一屆演化式計算應用研討會。  延伸查詢new window
2.Blanco, P. F.、Sagi, D. B.、Soltero, F.、Hidalgo, J. I.(2008)。Technical Market Indicators Optimization using Evolutionary Algorithm。GECCO’08,(會議日期: July 12-16, 2008)。  new window
3.Hoklie、Zuhal, L. R.(2010)。Resolving Multi Objective Stock Portfolio Optimization Problem Using Genetic Algorithm。2010 The 2nd International Conference on Computer and Automation Engineering,40-45。  new window
4.Orito, Y.、Yamazaki, G.(2001)。Index Fund Portfolio Selection by Using GA。Fourth International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Multimedia Applications,118-122。  new window
5.Yin, Jiangling、Si, Yain-Whar、Gong, Zhiguo(201106)。Financial Time Series Segmentation Based On Turning Points。2011 International Conference on System Science and Engineering。Macau。  new window
圖書
1.Koza, John R.(1994)。Genetic Programming II: Automatic Discovery of Reusable Programs。MIT Press。  new window
2.杜金龍(2008)。最新技術指標--在臺灣股市應用的訣竅。財訊出版社有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳共、周生業、吳曉求(2001)。證券投資分析。五南圖書出版有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
4.Bodenhofer, U.(2004)。Genetic Algorithms: Theory and Applications。  new window
5.Kimoto, T.、Asakawa, K.(1990)。Stock market prediction system with modular neural networks。The MIT Press。  new window
其他
1.陳達新(20130909)。台灣醒報專訪報導,https://tw.news.yahoo.com/。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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