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題名：選區分配與族群投票：從馬來西亞2013年國會大選評析馬國政黨輪替的瓶頸
書刊名：政治學報
作者：孫采薇
作者(外文)：Sun, Tsai-wei
出版日期：2016
卷期：61
頁次：頁57-85
主題關鍵詞：馬來西亞；國民陣線；國陣；人民聯盟；民聯；族群投票；選區分配不均；Malaysia；Barisan National；BN；Pakatan Rakyat；PR；Ethnic voting；Malapportionment
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:11
  • 點閱點閱:22
在2013 年5 月馬來西亞所舉行的第13 屆全國大選中，執政的「國陣」政府僅得到46.7% 的選民支持，創下執政聯盟自1959 年以來的最難堪紀錄，但卻在國會222 席中取得133 席（占 總席次59.9%），而得以繼續執政。族群認同、族群政黨、族群的選舉競爭與菁英共治，向來 是馬來西亞政治的最大特徵，甚至其為人所詬病的選區分配制度沿革與數次選區疆界重劃，也 有濃厚的族群考量。本文主要依據馬來西亞《星洲日報》在2013 年第13 屆國會大選過後所提 供之222 個國會選區的選舉人數、各族群所占比例、以及選舉結果等原始資料，逐一登錄與整 理，藉此觀察馬國此屆大選所顯現的制度與族群因素，並初步評析馬國反對陣營欲進一步挑戰 「國陣」威權、並以政黨輪替作為引領該國進一步政治民主化契機所面臨的瓶頸。
Malaysia’s thirteenth general elections, held on 5 May 2013, made a stunning blow to the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) regime. Although BN won 59.9% of the parliament seats and continued to rule the government, it gained only 46.7% of popular votes -- the worst record in the country’s political history. This article uses electoral and demographic data to test two important factors for these outcomes: electoral system and ethnic politics. Evidence shows that the malapportionment and the trend of ethnic voting during elections have always been, and will continue to be, the main obstacles for the opposition camp to overthrow the BN government and to move Malaysia toward a real democratic transition.
期刊論文
1.Mauzy, Diane K.(20061200)。The Challenge to Democracy: Singapore's and Malaysia's Resilient Hybrid Regimes。Taiwan Journal of Democracy，2(2)，47-68。new window  new window
2.戴萬平、顧長永(20011100)。經濟發展、民主化與族群政治--馬來西亞的個案。問題與研究，40(6)，69-84。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.孫采薇(20130500)。馬來西亞第13屆國會大選評析：民聯選票中的族群因素。戰略安全研析，97，52-59。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Bertrand, J.(1998)。Growth and Democracy in Southeast Asia。Comparative Politics，30(3)，355-375。  new window
5.Barany, Z.(2002)。Ethnic Mobilization without Prerequisites: The East European Gypsies。World Politics，54(3)，277-307。  new window
6.梁志輝(20130500)。馬來西亞大選中的族群政治。戰略安全研析，97，45-51。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Case, William F.(2004)。New Uncertainties for an Old Pseudo-Democracy: The Case of Malaysia。Comparative Politics，37(1)，83-104。  new window
8.Brownlee, J.(2008)。Bound to Rule: Party Institutions and Regime Trajectories in Malaysia and the Philippines。Journal of East Asian Studies，8(1)，89-118。  new window
9.Dunning, T.、Harrison, L.(2010)。Cross-cutting Cleavages and Ethnic Voting: An Experimental Study of Cousinage in Mali。American Political Science Review，104(1)，21-39。  new window
10.Diamond, Larry J.(2002)。Elections without Democracy: Thinking about Hybrid Regimes。Journal of Democracy，13(2)，21-35。  new window
11.Derichs, C.(2006)。Malaysia in 2005: Moving Forward Quietly。Asian Survey，46(1)，168-174。  new window
12.Case, W.(2005)。Southeast Asia's Hybrid Regimes: When do Voters Change them?。Journal of East Asian Studies，5(2)，215-237。  new window
13.Freedman, A. L.(2001)。The Effect of Government Policy and Institutions on Chinese Overseas Acculturation: The Case of Malaysia。Modern Asian Studies，35(2)，411-440。  new window
14.Felker, Greg(2000)。Malaysia in 1999: Mahathir's Pyrrhic Deliverance。Asian Survey，40(1)，49-60。  new window
15.Felker, G.(1999)。Malaysia in 1998: A Cornered Tiger Bares Its Claws。Asian Survey，39(1)，43-54。  new window
16.Hamayotsu, K.(2013)。Towards a More Democratic Regime and Society? The Politics of Faith and Ethnicity in a Transitional Multi-Ethnic Malaysia。Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs，32(2)，61-88。  new window
17.Hoffman, B. D.、Long, J. D.(2013)。Parties, Ethnicity, and Voting in African Elections。Comparative Politics，45(2)，127-146。  new window
18.Landa, J.、Copeland, M.、Grofman, B.(1995)。Ethnic Voting Patterns: A Case Study of Metropolitan Toronto。Political Geography，14(5)，435-449。  new window
19.Lee, H. G.(2008)。Malaysia in 2007: Abdullah Administration under Siege。Southeast Asian Affairs，8，187-206。  new window
20.Levitsky, S.、Way, L.(2002)。The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism。Journal of Democracy，13(2)，51-65。  new window
21.Long, J. D.、Gibson, C. C.(2015)。Evaluating the Roles of Ethnicity and Performance in African Elections: Evidence from an Exit Poll in Kenya。Political Research Quarterly，68(4)，830-842。  new window
22.Mauzy, D. K.(1987)。Malaysia 1986: The Ups and Downs of Stock Market Politics。Asian Survey，27(2)，231-241。  new window
23.Martinez, Patricia(2001)。Malaysia in 2000: A Year of Contradictions。Asian Survey，41(1)，189-200。  new window
24.Mukerjee, D.(1982)。Malaysia's 1982 General Election: The Tricky Triangulars。Contemporary Southeast Asia，4(3)，301-315。  new window
25.Morse, Y. L.(2012)。The Era of Electoral Authoritarianism。World Politics，64(1)，161-198。  new window
26.Mohamad, Maznah(2008)。Malaysia: Democracy and the End of Ethnic Politics?。Australian Journal of International Affairs，62(4)，441-459。  new window
27.Ong, K.(2002)。The 2002 Delimitation Exercise: Systematically Favoring the BN?。Aliran Monthly。  new window
28.Ostwald, Kai(2013)。How to Win a Lost Election: Malapportionment and Malaysia's 2013 General Election。The Round Table，102(6)，521-532。  new window
29.Pepinsky, T. B.(2009)。The 2008 Malaysian Elections: An End to Ethnic Politics。Journal of East Asian Studies，9(1)，87-120。  new window
30.Slater, D.(2003)。Iron Cage in an Iron Fist: Authoritarian Institutions and the Personalization of Power in Malaysia。Comparative Politics，36(1)，81-101。  new window
31.Wolfinger, R. E.(1965)。The Development and Persistence of Ethnic Voting。American Political Science Review，59(4)，896-908。  new window
32.Gandhi, Jennifer、Przeworski, Adam(2007)。Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats。Comparative Political Studies，40(11)，1279-1301。  new window
33.Schedler, Andreas(2002)。The Menu of Manipulation。Journal of Democracy，13(2)，36-50。  new window
34.Samuels, David、Snyder, Richard(2001)。The Value of a Vote: Malapportionment in Comparative Perspective。British Journal of Political Science，31(4)，651-671。  new window
35.Ratnam, K. J.、Milne, R. S.(1970)。The 1969 Parliamentary Election in West Malaysia。Pacific Affairs，43(2)，203-226。  new window
36.Magaloni, Beatriz(2008)。Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule。Comparative Political Studies，41(4/5)，715-741。  new window
37.Means, Gordon Paul(1996)。Soft Authoritarianism in Malaysia and Singapore。Journal of Democracy，7(4)，103-117。  new window
38.Lijphart, Arend(1996)。The Puzzle of Indian Democracy: A Consociational Interpretation。American Political Science Review，90(2)，258-268。  new window
會議論文
1.Suzuki, A.(2013)。The Contest for Parliament: Changing or Sustaining the Regime。The 13th General Election in Malaysia: Issues, Outcomes and Implications。Chiba。  new window
研究報告
1.Brown, G.(2005)。Playing the (Non)Ethnic Card: The Electoral System and Ethnic Voting Patterns in Malaysia。Oxford：Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity。  new window
2.Brown, G.(2005)。Balancing the Risks of Corrective Surgery: The Political Economy of Horizontal Inequalities and the End of the New Economic Policy in Malaysia。Oxford：Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity。  new window
圖書
1.Tully, J.(1995)。Strange Multiplicity: Constitutionalism in an Age of Diversity。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
2.Crouch, Harold(1996)。Government and Society in Malaysia。Cornell University Press。  new window
3.Sartori, Giovanni(1997)。Comparative Constitutional Engineering: An Inquiry into Structures, Incentives and Outcomes。New York, NY：New York University Press。  new window
4.Kymlicka, Will(1995)。Multicultural Citizenship: A Liberal Theory of Minority Rights。Oxford University Press。  new window
5.Baker, J.(2008)。Crossroads: A Popular History of Malaysia and Singapore。Marshall Cavendish Editions。  new window
6.Birnir, J. K.(2007)。Ethnicity and Electoral Politics。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
7.Freedman, A. L.(2006)。Political Change and Consolidation: Democracy's Rocky Road in Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, and Malaysia。New York：Palgrave MacMillan。  new window
8.Freedman, A. L.(2000)。Political Participation and Ethnic Minorities: Chinese Overseas in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the United States。New York：Routledge。  new window
9.Heng, P. K.(1988)。Chinese Politics in Malaysia: A History of Malaysian Chinese Association。Kuala Lumpur, SG：Oxford University Press。  new window
10.Reilly, B.(2001)。Democracy in Divided Societies: Electoral Engineering for Conflict Management。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
11.Reilly, B.、Reynolds, A.(1999)。Electoral Systems and Conflict in Divided Societies。Washington, DC：National Academy Press。  new window
12.Varshney, A.(2002)。Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India。New Haven, CT：Yale University Press。  new window
13.Mutalib, Hussin(1990)。Islam and Ethnicity in Malay Politics。Oxford University Press。  new window
14.Lijphart, Arend(1977)。Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration。Yale University Press。  new window
15.Huntington, Samuel Phillips(1991)。The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century。University of Oklahoma Press。  new window
16.Lijphart, Arend(1999)。Patterns of democracy: government forms and performance in thirty-six countries。Yale University Press。  new window
17.Greene, Kenneth F.(2007)。Why Dominant Parties Lose: Mexico's Democratization in Comparative Perspective。Cambridge University Press。  new window
其他
1.張慶祿(2014)。臃腫內閣需交出成績，http://www.guangming.com.my/node/211581?tid=2。  延伸查詢new window
2.金鼎(2014)。內閣改組--馬華重新入閣，http://www.guangming.com.my/node/211093?tid=2。  延伸查詢new window
3.升永英俊(2013)。為實現一票之平等，http://www.nippon.com/hk/in-depth/a02303/。  延伸查詢new window
4.(2014)。安順補選．馬袖強險勝，http://news.sinchew.com.my/node/368543。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Hicken, A.(2008)。Developing Democracies in Southeast Asia: Theorizing the Role of Parties and Elections。Southeast Asia in Political Science: Theory, Region, and Qualitative Analysis。Stanford, CA：Stanford University Press。  new window
2.Horowitz, D. L.(2002)。Constitutional Design: Proposals versus Processes。The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy。Oxford, UK：Oxford University Press。  new window
3.Lee, K. H.(2004)。Differing Perspectives on Integration and Nation-Building in Malaysia。Ethnic Relations and Nation-Building in Southeast Asia: the Case of the Ethnic Chinese。Singapore：Institute of Southeast Asian Studies。  new window
4.Lim, H.-H.、Ong, K.-M.(2006)。The 2004 General Election and the Electoral Process in Malaysia。Between Consolidation and Crisis: Elections and Democracy in Five Nations in Southeast Asia。Hamburg, DE：LIT Verlag。  new window
5.Lim, H. H.(2002)。Electoral Politics in Malaysia: 'Managing' Elections in a Plural Society。Electoral Politics in Southeast & East Asia。Friedrich Ebert Stiftung。  new window
6.Mohamad, Marzuki(2007)。Legal Coercion, Legal Meanings and UMNO's Legitimacy。Politics in Malaysia: The Malay Dimension。London：Routledge。  new window
7.Norris, P.(2002)。Ballots not Bullets: Testing Consociational Theories of Ethnic Conflict, Electoral Systems, and Democratization。The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy。Oxford, UK：Oxford University Press。  new window
8.Reilly, B.(2011)。Political Reform and the Demise of Consociationalism in Southeast Asia。The Crisis of Democratic Governance in Southeast Asia。New York：Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
9.Welsh, B.(2004)。Real Change? Elections in the Reformasi Era。The State of Malaysia: Ethnicity, Equity and Reform。New York：Routledge Curzon。  new window
 
 
 
 
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