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題名:累積數量管制圖應用於顧客流失之預測
書刊名:管理資訊計算
作者:楊珮慈俞瑋婷葉思佳陳思翰
作者(外文):Yang, Pei-tszYu, Wei-tingYen, Ssu-chiaChen, Ssu-han
出版日期:2017
卷期:6:特刊2
頁次:頁1-11
主題關鍵詞:顧客流失預測累積數量管制圖間隔登入時間近時Customer churn predictionCumulative quantity control chartInter-login timeRecency
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:14
  • 點閱點閱:5
本研究建構處理網路顧客流失的預測模式,以累積數量管制圖(Cumulative Quantity Control Chart,簡稱CQC管制圖)作為主要的監控工具,並結合混淆矩陣(Confusion Matrix)以找出其最適宜的參數值。該預測模式能動態地監控各個顧客登入行為是否出現惡化趨向,在監控的變數方面,間隔登入時間(Inter-login Time)可顯現出登入行為的歷史軌跡;而近時(Recency)則可掌握登入行為的近況,本研究同時將兩變數運用在CQC中。過往的預警模式大都是以靜態的方式分析顧客流失與否,本研究則使用有別以往的動態預警概念,除了視覺化(Visualization)的圖形展示之外,隨著時間的變動、資訊的更新,可以持續的在CQC上繪出新資訊,當某CQC分數超出預定的上管制界限(Upper Control Limit,簡稱UCL),流失的警訊便會出現,代表某位顧客的登入行為出現惡化的現象。
This study probes into the prediction model of customer churn on the Internet. This model takes the cumulative quantity control (CQC) chart as the monitoring tool in which the most appropriate parameters are found with the combination of control chart mechanism and confusion matrix. The prediction model can monitor control chart dynamically to examine whether customer's login behavior tends to deteriorate or not. In monitoring of variables, inter-login time can show the historical track of login behavior, while recency can reflect the recent login situation. This study applies two variables in CQC at the same time. Most past prediction models adopt static analysis approach to analyze customer churn. This research is using the dynamic prediction concept, which is different from that of the past. Except for visual diagram, new information will be continuously shown in the chart as time changes and information updates. When CQC score exceeds upper control limit (UCL), a warning of customer churn will appear, which represents the deterioration of certain customer's behavior.
期刊論文
1.Coussement, K.、De Bock, K. W.(2013)。Customer churn prediction in the online gambling industry: The beneficial effect of ensemble learning。Journal of Business Research,66(9),1629-1636。  new window
2.Coussement, K.、Benoit, D. F.、Van Den Poel, D.(2010)。Improved marketing decision making in a customer churn prediction context using generalized additive models。Expert Systems with Applications,37(3),2132-2143。  new window
3.Chan, L. Y.、Xie, M.、Goh, T. N.(2000)。Cumulative quantity control charts for monitoring production processes。International Journal of Production Research,38(2),397-408。  new window
4.Zeithaml, V. A.、Rust, R. T.、Lemon, K. N.(2001)。The customer pyramid: Creating and serving profitable customers。California Management Review,43(4),118-142。  new window
5.Huang, B. Q.、Kechadi, T. M.、Buckley, B.、Kiernan, G.、Keogh, E.、Rashid, T.(2010)。A new feature set with new window techniques for customer churn prediction in land-line telecommunications。Expert Systems with Applications,37(5),3657-3665。  new window
6.Reichheld, Frederick F.、Sasser, W. Earl Jr.(1990)。Zero Defections: Quality Comes to Services。Harvard Business Review,68(5),105-111。  new window
會議論文
1.Hadiji, F.、Sifa, R.、Drachen, A.、Thurau, C.、Kersting, K.、Bauckhage, C.(2014)。Predicting player churn in the wild。2014 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG)。IEEE。  new window
學位論文
1.何明峻(2015)。應用MIL-STD-105E與高良率製程管制圖之產品抽樣檢驗分析比較(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.卓益如(2010)。變動抽樣間隔CQC管制圖之經濟性設計(碩士論文)。國立雲林科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.Ouyang, J.(2004)。Cumulative quantity control chart and maintenance strategies for industrial processes(博士論文)。The University of Hong Kong,Pokfulam, Hong Kong。  new window
圖書
1.段正宇(2009)。如何鞏固客戶。憲業企管顧問有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.鄭春生(2012)。品質管理:現代化觀念與實務應用。新北市:全畫圖書。new window  延伸查詢new window
單篇論文
1.陳佩雯(2009)。監控高產出製程之事件時間間隔管制圖設計與連串法則之應用。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳琬昕(2010)。應用測試法則提升累積數量管制圖(CQC)於高產出製程監控之績效。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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