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題名:以資料探勘分析推甄入學之學生就讀機率--以某大學資管系為例
書刊名:管理資訊計算
作者:張良政吳蘊容張伃瑄劉姵珺
作者(外文):Chang, Liang-chengWu, Yun-rongChang, Huan-shuanLiu, Pei-chun
出版日期:2017
卷期:6:2
頁次:頁1-11
主題關鍵詞:資料探勘少子化關聯分析決策樹Data miningLow fertility rateAssociation rulesDecision tree
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:11
  • 點閱點閱:36
隨著少子化的影響,教育部決定透過新生註冊率作為私立大學經營存續的依據。由於推薦甄試的比例提高,如何在推薦甄選入學過程中,掌握並選擇有強烈就讀可能的學生是各大學特別是私立大專院校最重要的課題。過去本校對於推甄資料的分類都透過人為主觀因素判斷,又缺乏後續追蹤驗證。本論文透過資料探勘技術,將推甄學生資料進行關聯分析,找出學生居住區域、性別、選填志願和就讀意願之間的關聯。接著根據關聯分析結果建立決策樹,以此決策樹預測下一學期個人申請入學可能就讀的人數,模型準確率可達87.5%。
During the effects of the low fertility rate, the Ministry of Education has decided to use the rate of freshman registration as the basis for the survival of private universities. As a result of the increase in the proportion of individual admission, it is the most important issue for universities, especially private universities, to grasp and choose students who are strongly enrolled from the individual admission. In the past, the department chose students through the subjective judgment, but also the lack of follow-up verification. In this paper, by the data mining, the analysis of student data will be analyzed to find out the association rules about students' location, gender, candidate colleges and decision results. Then to build a decision tree based on the association rules, so the decision tree to predict the number of freshmen of individual admission for next semester, the model accuracy rate of up to 87.5%.
期刊論文
1.Maringe, F.(2006)。University and course choice: Implications for positioning, recruitment and marketing。International Journal of Educational Management,20(6),466-479。  new window
2.Vandamme, J. P.、Meskens, N.、Superby, J. F.(2007)。Predicting academic performance by data mining methods。Education Economics,15(4),405-419。  new window
3.吳金雄(20140000)。私立大學招生策略之探討--以S大學為例。明道學術論壇,9(1),3-18。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.洪大翔、盧龍泉、何雍慶(20090300)。高等教育選校行為模式建構之探討。管理實務與理論研究,3(1),116-135。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Thomas, E. H.、Galambos, N.(2004)。What satisfies students? Mining student-opinion data with regression and decision tree analysis。Research in higher education,45(3),251-269。  new window
6.Antonenko, P. D.、Toy, S.、Niederhauser, D. S.(2012)。Using cluster analysis for data mining in educational technology research。Education Tech Research Development,60,383-398。  new window
7.Natek, S.、Zwilling, M.(2014)。Student data mining solution-knowledge management system related to higher education institutions。Expert Systems with Applications,41,6400-6407。  new window
8.Márquez-Vera, C.、Cano, A.、Romero, C.、Ventura, S.(2013)。Predicting student failure at school using genetic programming and different data mining approaches with high dimensional and imbalanced data。Applied Intelligence,38,315-330。  new window
9.Ming, J. S. K.(2010)。Institutional factors influencing students' college choice decision in Malaysia: A conceptual framework。International Journal of Business and Social Science,1(3),53-58。  new window
10.Yu, C. H.、Kaprolet, C.、Jannasch-Pennell, A.、DiGangi, S.(2012)。A Data Mining Approach to Comparing American and Canadian Grade 10 Students' PISA Science Test Performance。Journal of Data Science,10,441-464。  new window
11.Wilson, H. E.、Adelson, J. L.(2012)。College choices of academically talented secondary students。Journal of Advanced Academics,23(1),32-52。  new window
12.Xing, W.、Guo, R.、Petakovic, E.、Goggins, S.(2015)。Participation-based student final performance prediction model through interpretable Genetic Programming: Integrating learning analytics, educational data mining and theory。Computers in Human Behavior,47,168-181。  new window
13.PhridviRaj, M. S. B.、GuruRao, C. V.(2014)。Data Mining--Past, Present and Future--A Typical Survey on Data Streams。Procedia Technology,12,255-263。  new window
14.Reddy, M.(2011)。Determinants of student choice of business schools in India: a factor analytic investigation。International Journal of Management,28(3),751-762。  new window
15.Vialardi, C.、Chue, J.、Peche, J. P.、Alvarado, G.、Vinatea, B.、Estrella, J.、Ortigosa, A.(2011)。A data mining approach to guide students through the enrollment process based on academic performance。User Modeling and User-Adapted Interaction,21,217-248。  new window
會議論文
1.Agrawal, R.、Srikant, R.(1994)。Fast algorithms for mining association rales in large databases。The 20th International Conference on Very Large Data Bases,487-499。  new window
研究報告
1.金允文(2012)。大專院校1年級學生人數預測報告(102至113學年度)。教育部統計處。  延伸查詢new window
2.教育部(2013)。教育部輔導私立大專院校改善及停辦實施原則。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Mayer-Schönberger, Viktor、Cukier, Kenneth(2014)。Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think。Eamon Dolan/Mariner Books。  new window
其他
1.林曉雲,黃邦平(2015)。「虎年」海嘯大學新生明年少2.7萬人。  延伸查詢new window
2.林志成(20131021)。甄選入學比例提高到8成,https://tinyurl.com/y9abuqhq。  延伸查詢new window
3.林秀姿(20150106)。少子化來襲8年後大學減招13萬人。  延伸查詢new window
4.馮紹恩(20150302)。少子化衝擊私校校長:南部更嚴重。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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