臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆   第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁
/1頁
題名：總體缺電成本估計--CGE模型之應用
書刊名：臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者：柏雲昌 引用關係／賴偉文
作者(外文)：Bor, Jeffrey Yunchang／Lai, Weiwen
出版日期：2018
卷期：48:2
頁次：頁79-109
主題關鍵詞：總體缺電成本估計；可計算一般均衡模型；電力經濟；需求面管理；Macro outage cost；CGE model；Electricity economics；Demand side management
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:5
基於臺灣地區兩大政黨對「無核家園」政策之爭議逐漸縮小，再加上地區民眾對燃煤電廠排放的空氣汙染多所疑慮，可預見未來臺灣地區的電源開發工作將日益困難。此問題甚至引起外商和高科技電子產業的擔憂，認爲自2017年後可能面臨限電的危機，將嚴重影響生產成本。一般而言，因供電系統的備用容量數降低，進而會發生缺電機率。民生及產業在缺電時都會受影響及發生損失，即所謂的缺電成本。跟據本文研究結果顯示，以發電端缺電機率(LOLP)實績值做爲缺電成本政策模擬情境的下界，另以台灣電力公司需求面管理(DSM)實際契約作爲缺電成本政策模擬情境的上界，估計總生產部門缺電成本約爲新臺幣1.01元/度至4.01元/度(實質附加價值)。家計部門缺電成本乃從新臺幣0.09元/度至2.19元/度不等。缺電也將對實質GDP、就業率、消費、和進出口等總體經濟將產生負面的衝擊。
Due to the recent, rapid development of a ＂nuclear-free homeland＂ consensus, plus increasing air pollution from coal-fired power plants, maintaining the infrastructure of electricity supply is becoming more and more difficult in Taiwan. Foreign enterprises and local high-tech industries have expressed serious concerns about this issue. They have even projected that there will be power shortages after 2017, and the production costs due to uncertainty of power supply will increase dramatically. If power supply reliability decreases, it will heavily erode the spinning reserve of the power system and increase the probability of power shortages. Power users, including industrial users and residential users, will bear losses due to interruptions of electricity supply. The present study adopts a CGE model (EnFore-Green) to estimate power outage costs at the macro level in Taiwan. The average power outage costs are forecast to be about 1.01-4.01 NT$/kWh for the production sector, and 0.09-2.19 NT$/kWh for household sector. The interruptions to electricity supply will also cause negative impacts to all macro level variables, such as real GDP, employment, consumption, and imports and exports.
期刊論文
1.楊豐碩、陳士麟、許志義、林師模、陳詩豪、歐陽利姝、盧豐彰、何玉麗、林章平、許世哲、施雅慧、林啟明、洪育民、陳隆武(20110600)。缺電成本之調查研究。台電工程月刊，754，55-75。  延伸查詢new window
2.Klein, L. R.、Rubin, H.(1947)。A Constant-Utility Index of the Cost of Living。The Review of Economic Studies，15(2)，84-87。  new window
3.Baarsma, B. E.、Hop, J. P.(2009)。Pricing Power Outage in the Netherlands。Energy，34，1378-1386。  new window
4.Bor, Y. J.、Chuang, Y.-C.、Lai, W.-W.、Yang, C.-M.(2010)。A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Public R&D Investment in Taiwan。Economic Modelling，27(1)，171-183。  new window
5.Brown, G.、Johnson, M. B.(1969)。Public Utility Pricing and Output under Risk。American Economic Review，59(1)，119-128。  new window
6.De Nooij, M.、Koopmans, C.、Bijvoet, C.(2007)。The Value of Supply Security and the Costs of Power Interruptions: Economic Input for Damage Reduction and Investment in Networks。Energy Economics，29，277-295。  new window
7.De Nooij, M.、Lieshout, R.、Koopmans, C.(2009)。Optimal Blackouts: Empirical Results on Reducing the Social Cost of Electricity Outages Through Efficient Regional Rationing。Energy Economics，31，342-347。  new window
8.Harish, S. M.、Morgan, G. M.、Subrahmanian, E.(2014)。When Does Unreliable Grid Supply Become Unacceptable Policy? Costs of Power Supply and Outages in Rural India。Energy Policy，68，158-169。  new window
9.Oseni, M . O.、Pollitt, M. G.(2015)。A Firm-Level Analysis of Outage Loss Differentials and Self-Generation: Evidence from African Business Enterprises。Energy Economics，52，277-286。  new window
10.Praktiknjo, A. J.(2014)。Stated Preferences Based Estimation of Power Interruption Costs in Private Households: An Example from Germany。Energy，76，82-90。  new window
11.Praktiknjo, A. J.、Hahnel, A.、Erdmann, G.(2011)。Assessing Energy Supply Security: Outage Costs in Private Households。Energy Policy，39，7825-7833。  new window
12.Reichl, J.、Schmidthaler, M.、Schneider, F.(2013)。The Value of Supply Security: The Costs of Power Outages to Austrian Households, Firms and the Public Sector。Energy Economics，36，256-261。  new window
13.Wijayatunga, P. D. C.、Jayalath, M. S.(2004)。Assessment of Economic Impact of Electricity Supply Interruptions in the Sri Lanka Industrial Sector。Energy Conversion and Management，45(2)，235-248。  new window
14.Wolf, A.、Wenzel, L.(2015)。Welfare Implications of Power Rationing: An Application to Germany。Energy，84，53-62。  new window
15.Woo, C. K.、Ho, T.、Shiu, A.、Cheng, Y. S.、Horowitz, I.、Wang, J.(2014)。Residential Outage Cost Estimation: Hong Kong。Energy Policy，72，204-210。  new window
16.Yoshida, Y.、Matsuhashi, R.(2013)。Estimating Power Outage Costs Based on a Survey of Industrial Customers。Electrical Engineering in Japan，185(4)，25-32。  new window
圖書
1.Dixon, P. B.、Parmenter, B. R.、Sutton, J. M.、Vincent, D. P.(1982)。ORANI: A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy。Amsterdam：North-Holland Press。  new window
2.于宗先、許志義、鄭欽龍(1989)。臺灣產業缺電成本之研究。臺北：中華經濟研究院。  延伸查詢new window
3.張建隆、林正義、吳再益(2002)。系統最適供電可靠度與合理備用容量之硏究。臺北：臺灣綜合研究院。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.台灣電力公司(2016)。備用容量之說明，http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/new_info-c33.aspx?LinkID=13。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
QR Code
QRCODE

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

目前上線人數：534（臺灣：528，外國：6） ／ 本年度總使用人次：2602775 ／ 訪客人次（自102年09月）：68413213
國家圖書館著作權聲明 Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.
本館地址: 100201臺北市中山南路20號． 本館地圖及交通資訊．
總機：(02)23619132．最佳瀏覽解析度為1024x768以上