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題名:運動博弈中賭盤與比賽得分之關係:以2017年美國職棒大聯盟為例
書刊名:大專體育
作者:林忠程 引用關係陳膺成 引用關係黃孆蔚
作者(外文):Lin, Jong-chengChen, Ying-chengHuang, Ying-wei
出版日期:2018
卷期:145
頁次:頁30-38
主題關鍵詞:大分盤小分盤投手防禦率投資管理Total overTotal underEarned run averageInvestment management
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:3
  • 點閱點閱:4
隨著運動博弈產業的發展,投注者關注各項運動賽事的統計資料與相關資訊。本文旨在分析2017年美國職棒大聯盟開出的總得分盤與實際比賽得分的關聯性,以2017年美國職棒大聯盟例行賽各隊得分大小盤結果數據等文獻進行分析,結果發現開大分盤最多的球隊是紐約大都會,開小分盤最多的球隊是匹茲堡海盜。總得分盤讓大小分盤盡量趨近於五成的平衡狀態,以獲取5%之經營利潤,30支球隊中有12支球隊大小分差率達5%,球隊投手防禦率與球隊得分開盤也存在關聯性。結語指出運動博弈不僅是博弈也是「投資管理」,運動賽事的分析不該單憑個人感覺與喜好,或聽閱坊間專家與媒體分析的迷思進行投注,而應全面觀察各項數據及趨勢,做一番有系統的分析與預測,尋找最有利的投注條件,做一正確的判斷抉擇,營造獲利的法則。
As the sports gambling industry has evolved, bettors have begun to focus on statistical data analyses and related information. This study aims to analyze the correlation between odds in sports gambling and the actual score results by organizing the data of each team's odds in Major League Baseball during the 2017 regular season. The results reveal that bookmakers set the most total overs on the New York Mets, and the most total unders on the Pittsburgh Pirates. In order to protect their margin and generate a 5% operating profit, most bookmakers attempt to achieve a "balanced book" with a fifty-fifty overall ratio between winners and losers as often as possible. Twelve of the thirty teams obtained a total differential rate of 5%. There is also a correlation found between each team's earned run average and the betting odds. The results indicate that sports gambling is not only a game of chance but also an example of investment management. While analyzing sport games, bettors should not rely on personal perspectives, preferences, advice from other professional bettors or media analyses. They should observe and analyze the overall data and trends comprehensively and systematically to make predictions, identify the most profitable betting conditions and make accurate determinations. These are the key elements needed to systematically earn profits.
期刊論文
1.Broughton, D.、Lee, J.、Nethery, R.(1999)。Sports business at the end of the millennium: The answer: 213 billion。Street & Smith's Sports Business Journal,2(35),23-29。  new window
2.黃煜(20021200)。美國職業運動產業發展趨勢分析。國民體育季刊,31(4)=135,38-44。  延伸查詢new window
3.Yang, T. Y.、Swartz, T.(2004)。A two-stage bayesian model for predicting winners in major league baseball。Journal of Data Science,2(1),61-73。  new window
4.徐茂洲(20090800)。臺灣運動彩券發展現況與發展性分析。嘉大體育健康休閒,8(2),230-238。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Houser, A.(2005)。Which baseball statistic is the most important when determining team success?。The Park Place Economist,13(1),29-36。  new window
圖書
1.朱玲、柳伯力、謝晉達、趙寧(2008)。體育博彩論。四川:四川科學技術出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.程紹同、方信淵、洪嘉文、廖俊儒、謝一睿(2002)。運動管理學導論。華泰文化事業股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.Albert, J.、Bennett, J.(2001)。Curve ball: Baseball, statistics, and the role of chance in the game。New York, NY:Springer Science & Business Media。  new window
4.Schwarz, A.(2004)。The numbers game: Baseball's lifelong fascination with statistics。New York, NY:Thomas Dune。  new window
其他
1.楊正海(19991009)。跨國職棒簽賭單日賭金1.7億。  延伸查詢new window
2.Covers Media Group Ltd.。MLB playoff statistic leaders,https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2017/statistics_mlb_playoffs.html。  new window
3.Jarvis, J. F.(2009)。A survey on baseball player performance evaluation measures,http://knology.net/johnQarvis/runs_survey.html。  new window
 
 
 
 
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