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題名:從行為經濟學看臺灣不動產市場:羅伯特.席勒教授來臺演講之省思與啟示
書刊名:住宅學報
作者:朱芳妮 引用關係陳明吉 引用關係
作者(外文):Chu, Fang-niChen, Ming-chi
出版日期:2018
卷期:27:2
頁次:頁111-128
主題關鍵詞:不動產市場非理性繁榮行為經濟學Real estate marketIrrational exuberanceBehavioral economics
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:67
  • 點閱點閱:5
台灣不動產市場發展已難單從傳統經濟學假設人類理性思考來出發解釋。去年(2017)受邀來台主講亞洲及世界華人不動產學會聯合學術研討會的2013年諾貝爾經濟學獎的羅伯特.席勒(Robert J. Shiller)教授,以對資產訂價研究的卓越貢獻而得獎,對於歐美及亞洲主要國家的長期不動產市場趨勢有深入的分析,他對於不動產市場研究的貢獻不僅是提出Case-Shiller房價指數及週期調整本益比(Shiller's CAPE Ratio)供市場投資者衡量美國住宅價值變動情形及評估權益證券投資風險,其過去數本經典著作的核心論述,更可從行為經濟學觀點解釋在基本面因素以外,不動產市場是如何受到擁有資訊者的操弄、消費者對價格的預期以及人類基於本能所採取的行動之影響。本文從席勒教授近期與不動產市場相關的著作與論述,探討台灣不動產市場近年榮景下的隱憂與課題,期能從中獲得啟示。
The development of Taiwan's real estate market has been difficult to explain from the assumption of human rational thinking in traditional economics. Professor Robert J. Shiller, who received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics for his outstanding contributions to the asset pricing research, conducted an in-depth analysis of long-term housing market trends in major countries in Europe, Asia, and the United States. His contribution to the housing market researches is not only to present the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index and the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE Ratio) for market investors to measure the changes in the value of housing in the United States and to evaluate the risks of equity investments, but also explain how the housing market is influenced by the manipulation of participants who hold the information, the consumer's price expectation, and the action taken by human beings based on their instincts beyond the fundamentals from the perspectives of behavioral economics. This paper discusses the issues and concerns of the real estate market in Taiwan in recent years from Professor Shiller's recent books and articles. We hope to obtain implications from these discussions.
期刊論文
1.王景南、葉錦徽、林宗漢(20110300)。臺灣房市存在價格泡沫嗎?。經濟論文,39(1),61-89。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.陳佳甫、張金鶚、謝博明(20121200)。知人知面不知心:購屋者房價預期之分析。都市與計劃,39(4),349-373。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.林左裕、程于芳(20140600)。影響不動產市場之從眾行為與總體經濟因素之研究。應用經濟論叢,95,61-99。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.李憲佐(20070100)。營建物不實廣告建商與代銷商法律責任之研究。公平交易季刊,15(1),59-95。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.李美杏、陳威廷、彭建文(20140600)。亞洲城市房價基值與泡沫。都市與計劃,41(2),169-198。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.趙永祥、吳依正(20140300)。後全球金融危機中國大陸房市是否有泡沫化危機?。華人經濟研究,12(1),169-187。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.廖仲仁、張金鶚(20041200)。搜尋成本與定錨行為對於購屋者價格貼水之影響。住宅學報,13(2),47-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.吳孟璇、梁仁旭(20160700)。臺北市高房價成因剖析--以租價關係、總體因素與預期因素探討。土地經濟年刊,27,53-81。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.梁宏富、陳奉瑤(20160700)。不動產跨區購買之溢價分析。土地經濟年刊,27,82-116。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.陳明吉、蔡怡純、杜采萍(20090900)。台灣REITs價位合理嗎?。臺灣金融財務季刊,10(3),59-86。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.Jolls, C.、Sunstein, C. R.、Thaler, R. H.(1998)。A Behavioral Approach to Law and Economics。Stanford Law Review,50,1471-1550。  new window
12.Thaler, Richard H.(2016)。Behavioral Economics: Past, Present, and Future。American Economic Review,106(7),1577-1600。  new window
13.Teng, H. J.、Chang, C. O.、Chen, M. C.(2017)。Housing Bubble Contagion from City Centre to Suburbs。Urban Studies,54(6),1463-1481。  new window
14.Shiller, Robert J.(2017)。Narrative Economics。American Economic Review,107(4),967-1004。  new window
15.張金鶚、陳明吉、鄧筱蓉、楊智元(20091200)。臺北市房價泡沫知多少?--房價vs.租金、房價vs.所得。住宅學報,18(2),1-22。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.陳明吉、曾琬婷(20081000)。臺灣不動產市場從眾行為之檢視。管理與系統,15(4),591-615。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Kahneman, Daniel E.、Knetsch, Jack L.、Thaler, Richard H.(1991)。Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias。The Journal of Economic Perspectives,5(1),193-206。  new window
圖書
1.Akerlof, G. A.、Shiller, R. J.、李芳齡(2010)。動物本能:重振全球榮景的經濟新思維。臺北:天下遠見。  延伸查詢new window
2.Shiller, R. J.、Akerlof, G. A.(2009)。Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism。Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press。  new window
3.Shiller, Robert J.、李心丹、俞紅海、陳瑩(2016)。非理性繁榮。北京:中國人民大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
4.Akerlof, G. A.、Shiller, R. J.、廖月娟(2016)。釣愚:操縱與欺騙的經濟學。台北:遠見天下文化。  延伸查詢new window
5.Shiller, R. J.(2015)。Irrational Exuberance。New Jersey:Princeton University Press。  new window
6.Akerlof, G. A.、Shiller, R. J.(2015)。Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception。New Jersey:Princeton University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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