| 期刊論文1. | Wangel, Josefin(2011)。Exploring social structures and agency in Backcasting studies for sustainable development。Technological Forecasting & Social Change,78(5),872-882。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Geels, F. W.、Schot, J. W.(2007)。Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways。Research Policy,36(3),399-417。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Dator, Jim(20091100)。Alternative Futures at the Manoa School。Journal of Futures Studies,14(2),1-18。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | Nilsson, Måns、Nilsson, Lars J.、Hildingsson, Roger、Stripple, J.、Eikeland, Per Ove(2011)。The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies。Futures,43(10),1117-1128。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 5. | Rossel, P.(2012)。Early detection, warnings, weak signals and seeds of change: A turbulent domain of futures studies。Futures,44(3),229-239。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 6. | Amer, M.、Daim, T. U.、Jetter, A.(2013)。A review of scenario planning。Futures,46,23-40。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 7. | Bennett, E. M.、Solan, M.、Biggs, R.、McPhearson, T.、Norström, A. V.、Olsson, P.(2016)。Bright spots: Seeds of a good Anthropocene。Front Ecol Environ,14(8),441-448。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 8. | Barasa, M.、Bogdanov, D.、Ayobami S. O.、Breyer, Ch.(2018)。A cost optimal resolution for Sub-Saharan Africa powered by 100% renewables in 2030。Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,92,440-457。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 9. | Abson, D. J.、Fischer, J.、Leventon, J.、Newig, J.、Schomerus, T.、Vilsmaier, U.(2016)。Leverage points for sustainability transformation。Ambio: A Journal of the Human Environment,46(1),30-39。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 10. | Brown, T. W.、Bischof-Niemz, T.、Blok, K.、Breyer, Ch.、Mathiesen, B. V.(2018)。Response to 'Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems'。Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,92,834-847。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 11. | Bogdanov, D.、Breyer, Ch.(2016)。North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy Supply: Optimal Mix of Energy Technologies for Electricity, Gas and Heat Supply Options。Energy Conversion and Management,112,176-190。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 12. | Heinonen, Sirkka、Minkkinen, Matti、Karjalainen, Joni、Inayatullah, Sohail(2017)。Testing transformative energy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming。Technological Forecasting and Social Change,124,101-113。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 13. | Gulagi, Ashish、Bogdanov, Dmitrii、Breyer, Christian(2018)。The role of storage technologies in energy transition pathways towards achieving a fully sustainable energy system for India。Journal of Energy Storage,17,525-539。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 14. | Hiltunen, E.、Heinonen, S.(2012)。Creative Foresight Space and the Futures Window: Using Visual Weak Signals to Enhance Anticipation and Innovation。Futures,44,248-256。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 15. | Jacobson, Mark Z.、Delucchi, Mark A.、Cameron, Mary A.、Frew, Bethany A.(2017)。The United States Can Keep the Grid Stable at Low Cost with 100% Clean, Renewable Energy in All Sectors despite Inaccurate Claims。Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,114(26),E5021-E5023。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 16. | Huang, Ping、Negro, Simona O.、Hekkert, Marko P.、Bi, Kexin(2016)。How China Became a Leader in Solar PV: An Innovation System Analysis。Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,64,777-789。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 17. | Le Quéré, C.、Andrew, R. M.、Friedlingstein, P.、Sitch, S.、Pongratz, J.、Manning, A. C.、Korsbakken, J. I.、Peters, G. P.、Canadell, J. G.、Jackson, R. B.、Boden, T. A.、Tans, P. P.、Andrews, O. D.、Arora, V. K.、Bakker, D. C. E.、Barbero, L.、Becker, M.、Betts, R. A.、Bopp, L.、Chevallier, F.、Chini, L. P.、Ciais, P.、Cosca, C. E.、Cross, J.、Currie, K.、Gasser, T.、Harris, I.、Hauck, J.、Haverd, V.、Houghton, R. A.、Hunt, C. W.、Hurtt, G.、Ilyina, T.、Jain, A. K.、Kato, E.、Kautz, M.、Keeling, R. F.、Klein Goldewijk, K.、Körtzinger, A.、Landschützer, P.、Lefèvre, N.、Lenton, A.、Lienert, S.、Lima, I.、Lombardozzi, D.、Metzl, N.、Millero, F.、Monteiro, P. M. S.、Munro, D. R.、Nabel, J. E. M. S.、Nakaoka, S.-I.、Nojiri, Y.、Padín, X. A.、Peregon, A.、Pfeil, B.、Pierrot, D.、Poulter, B.、Rehder, G.、Reimer, J.、Rödenbeck, C.、Schwinger, J.、Séférian, R.、Skjelvan, I.、Stocker, B. D.、Tian, H.、Tilbrook, B.、van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.、van der Werf, G. R.、van Heuven, S.、Viovy, N.、Vuichard, N.、Walker, A. P.、Watson, A. J.、Wiltshire, A. J.、Zaehle, S.、Zhu, D.(2018)。Global Carbon Budget 2017。Earth Syst. Sci. Data,10,405-448。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 18. | Klingler, Anna-Lena(2017)。Self-consumption with PV+Battery systems: A market diffusion model considering individual consumer behaviour and preferences。Applied Energy,205,1560-1570。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 19. | Karjalainen, Joni、Heinonen, Sirkka(2017)。Using Deliberative Foresight to envision a Neo-Carbon Energy Innovation Ecosystem--the Case Study of Kenya。African Journal for Science, Technology, Innovation and Development,10(5),625-641。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 20. | Masini, Eleonora(2006)。Rethinking futures studies。Futures,38(10),1158-1168。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 21. | Negro, Simona O.、Alkemade, Floortje、Hekkert, Marko P.(2012)。Why Does Renewable Energy Diffuse so Slowly? A Review of Innovation System Problems。Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,16(6),3836-3846。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 22. | Miller, Clark A.、O'Leary, Jason、Graffy, Elisabeth、Stechel, Ellen B.、Dirks, Gary(2015)。Narrative futures and the governance of energy transitions。Futures,70,65-74。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 23. | Pereira, L.、Hichert, T.、Hamann, M.、Preiser, R.、Biggs, R.(2018)。Using futures methods to create transformative spaces: Visions of a good Anthropocene in southern Africa。Ecology and Society,23(1)。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 24. | Nygrén, Nina A.、Kontio, Panu、Lyytimäki, Jari、Varho, Vilja、Tapio, Petri(2015)。Early Adopters Boosting the Diffusion of Sustainable Small-Scale Energy Solutions。Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,46,79-87。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 25. | De Souza Noel Simas Barbosa, L.、Orozco, J. F.、Bogdanov, D.、Vainikka, P.、Breyer, C.(2016)。Hydropower and Power-to-gas Storage Options: The Brazilian Energy System。Energy Procedia,99,89-107。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 26. | Nehring, J. H.、O'Brien, E. J.(2012)。Strong agents and weak systems: University support for school level improvement。J Educ Change,13。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 27. | Sarrica, Mauro、Brondi, Sonia、Cottone, Paolo、Mazzara, Bruno M.(2016)。One, no one, one hundred thousand energy transitions in Europe: The quest for a cultural approach。Energy Research & Social Science,13,1-14。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 28. | Ruotsalainen, Juho、Karjalainen, Joni、Child, Michael、Heinonen, Sirkka(2017)。Culture, values, lifestyles, and power in energy futures: A critical peer-to-peer vision for renewable energy。Energy Research & Social Science,34,231-239。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 29. | Vervoort, Joost M.、Bendor, Roy、Kelliher, Aisling、Strik, Oscar、Helfgott, Ariella E. R.(2015)。Scenarios and the art of worldmaking。Futures,74,62-70。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 30. | Upham, Paul、Klapper, Rita、Carney, Sebastian(2016)。Participatory energy scenario development as dramatic scripting: A structural narrative analysis。Technological Forecasting and Social Change,103,47-56。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 31. | Wangel, J.(2011)。Change by whom? Four ways of adding actors and governance in backcasting studies。Futures,43,880-889。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 32. | Victor, Peter A.、Jackson, Tim(2012)。A Commentary on UNEP's Green Economy Scenarios。Ecological Economics,77,11-15。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 33. | Wilson, Charlie、Grubler, Arnulf(2011)。Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies。Natural Resources Forum,35,165-184。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 34. | Inayatullah, Sohail(2008)。Six Pillars: futures thinking for transforming。Foresight,10(1),4-21。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 35. | Von Hippel, Eric(1986)。Lead users: a source of novel product concepts。Management Science,32(7),791-805。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 會議論文1. | Dunlop, I.(2017)。The Club of Rome Climate Emergency Plan。Workshop W1B at the Club of Rome Annual Conference 2017。Vienna。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 研究報告1. | Miller, R.、Poli, Roberto、Rossel, Pierre(2013)。The discipline of anticipation: Exploring key issues。Paris:UNESCO:Rockerfeller Foundation。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Heinonen, Sirkka、Karjalainen, Joni、Ruotsalainen, Juho(2016)。Radical Transformation in a Distributed Society--Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050。University of Turku。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Core Writing Team、Pachauri, Rajendra K.、Meyer, Leo A.(2014)。Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change。Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | Lang, Merja、Karjalainen, Joni、Heinonen, Sirkka(2016)。Glocal Insights to Neo-Carbon Energy and Its Forerunners。Finland Futures Research Centre。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 圖書1. | Van der Heijden, Kees(2005)。Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation。John Willey and Sons, Ltd.。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Bell, Wendell(1997)。Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era。Transaction Publishers。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Moore, Geoffrey A.(1991)。Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers。New York:HarperCollins Publishers。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | Heinonen, Sirkka、Ruotsalainen, Juho、Karjalainen, Joni(2017)。Transformational Energy Futures 2050. Neo-Carbon Energy Societal Scenarios。Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 5. | IEA(2017)。Key world energy statistics。Paris:International Energy Agency。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 6. | Lustig, Patricia(2015)。Strategic Foresight. Learning from the Future。Axminster。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 7. | Lund, Henrik(2014)。Renewable Energy Systems: A Smart Energy Systems Approach to the Choice and Modeling of 100% Renewable Solutions。Academic Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 8. | Lesca, H.、Lesca, N.(2011)。Weak Signals for Strategic Management: Anticipation Tool for Managers。John Wileys & Sons。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 9. | Meadows, Donella(2008)。Thinking in Systems: A Primer。Routledge/Earthscan。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 10. | Ramírez, Rafael、Wilkinson, Angela(2016)。Strategic Reframing. The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach。Oxford University Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 11. | Ralston, B.、Wilson, I.(2006)。The Scenario-planning Handbook: A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times。Thomson South-Western。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 12. | Scoones, I.、Leach, M.、Newell, P.(2015)。The Politics of Green Transformations。Routledge。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 13. | United Nations Environment Programme(2011)。Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication: A Synthesis for Policy-Makers。United Nations Environment Programme。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 14. | Smil, Vaclav(2017)。Energy and Civilization. A history。Cambridge, Massachusetts:MIT Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 15. | Wilenius, Markku(2017)。Patterns of the Future: Understanding the Next Wave of Global Change。London:World Scientific。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 16. | Rogers, Everett M.(1962)。Diffusion of innovations。The Free Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 17. | Day, George S.、Schoemaker, Paul J. H.(2006)。Peripheral vision: Detecting the weak signals that will make or break your company。Boston, MA:Harvard Business School Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 單篇論文1. | Heinonen S.,Karjalainen J.(2018)。Pioneer analysis as a futures research method for analysing transformations。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 圖書論文1. | Gordon, T.、Glenn, Jerome(2018)。Interactive scenarios。Innovative Research Methodologies in Management。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Heinonen, Sirkka(2017)。Pioneer analysis and international cultural changes. Application of positrend and negatrend analysis in the identification of cultural change。How Do We Explore our Futures?。Helsinki:Finnish Society for Futures Studies。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Kallis, Giorgos、Demaria, Federico、D'Alisa, Giacomo(2015)。Degrowth。International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | Malaska, Pentti(2010)。A more innovative direction has been ignored。Understanding Neo-Growth. An Invitation to Sustainable Productivity。Helsinki:TeliaSonera Finland Plc。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 5. | Poli, R.(2017)。Introduction to Anticipation Studies。Anticipation Science。Springer。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 6. | Perez, Carlota(2016)。Capitalism, Technology and a Green Global Golden Age: The Role of History in Helping to Shape the Future。Rethinking Capitalism in Political Quarterly。Wiley Blackwell。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 7. | Wiek, Arnim、Lang, Daniel J.(2016)。Transformational Sustainability Research Methodology。Sustainability Science: An Introduction。Springer。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 8. | Robertson, Roland(1995)。Glocalization: Time-Space and Homogeneity-Heterogeneity。Global Modernities。Sage Publications。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | |