本研究係應用系統動態學方法，建構新竹縣整體發展規劃之動態模擬模式，並藉著電子計算機之操作，模擬各種政策的改變對新竹整體發展所帶來的衝擊與動態變化的過程。 本模式的構造考慮到下列五個部門間交互影響的關係－－（1）人口部門（2）就業部門（3）生產部門（4）交通部門（5）土地部門。 模式引用民國65年至68年之資料，修正各有關參數後，應用DYNAMO程式於交大CDC CYBER 720電子計算機上進行模擬，結果發現若沿循目前的政策及趨勢，到民國89年時，自然成長率偏高，人口外流數頗多，而且平均每人所得及平均每車道路面積這些指標都很不理想。故進一步進行有關的模擬試驗，包括（1）增加社會支出，（2）全面發展工業，（3）全面發展交通，（4）開發經濟資源。 以上各政策模擬試驗，可就新竹縣整體發展規劃的動態變化趨勢，提供數量上的比較與說明，使決策者能夠瞭解各項政策對整個新竹縣產生的強、弱性衝擊，直、間接影響及長、短期效果，從而選擇有效的規畫策略。

This paper is aimed at formulating a dynamic simulation model for the overall development planning in Hsinchu area using system dynamics approach and understanding the system behavior under various policy changes. These results will assist the development of a long-term plan for the study area. This model considers the interrelation of 5 subsystems, which are: (1) population sector, (2) employees sector, (3) production sector, (4) transportation sector and (5) land sector. Through careful one-to-one-variables-relation identification, the model is built and the actual data are fed into this model, which is then run on a CDC-cyber 720 computer for simulation. Following the present policy-do-nothing-approach, the output shows that by 2000 the natural growth rte will be too high; population emigration will continue; the indices of average income per person & average road usage per vehicle will be far from expectation. For this reason, four new development policy alternatives are formed: They include: (1) increase of-social expenditures, (2) total development of industry, (3) total development of transportation, (4) development of economic resources. These alternatives are tested on the model. The results show that the combined policy of above alternatives will be most desired for the long-term development. Again, it is proved that the system dynamics approach is a powerful methodology in the regional planning.