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題名:An Evaluation of Alternative Optimal Hedging Derivations
書刊名:農業與經濟
作者:Chen, Nen-Jing
出版日期:1993
卷期:14
頁次:頁69-86
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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Optimal hedging can be derived and estimated in compact and decomposed forms (Chen, 1988; Sarassoro, 1988). The objectives of this study are to evaluate their performance and to compare them with the routine hedge and cash purchases empirically. Optimal hedging models are derived for Taiwan's hedging of com import demand in the CBOT under the assumption that the importers' disutility is a function of expected cost and variation of costs. This study uses monthly data from January 1976 to September 1985 to simulate the monthly purchasing costs from January 1986 to December 1990 under alternative optimal hedging, routine hedge, and cash strategies. The expected terms in the optimal hedging formulae are forecasted by ARIMA models. The performance of the strategies are evaluated based on the mean-standard deviation criterion. The results indicate that during the sample period the use of the compact optimal hedging model is the best strategy among the strategies considered in this study. The reason for the domination of compact over the decomposed optimal hedging is that less variables are to be forecasted in the former case. While the domination of cash purchases to the routine hedge come solely from the downtrending futures prices during the sample period except when there were serious droughts. Therefore if the mean and variation of the costs are of the major concern, the Taiwan importers of com should be aware of and follow the models and conclusions as suggested in this study.
期刊論文
1.Rolfo, J.(1980)。Optimal Hedging under Price and Quantity Uncertainty: The Case of a Cocoa Producer。The Journal of Political Economy,88,100-116。  new window
2.陳能靜、Leuthold, Raymond M.(19880600)。An Analysis of Alternative Hedging Strategies for Importing Corn: The Case of Taiwan。農業經濟半年刊,43,115-144。new window  new window
3.Baum, S. R.、Carlson, C.、Jucker, J. V.(1978)。Some Problems in Applying the Continuous Portfolio Selection Model to the Discrete Capital Budgeting Problem。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,13,333-344。  new window
4.Anderson, R. W.、Danthine, J. P.(1981)。Cross Hedging。Journal of Political Economy,89,1182-1191。  new window
5.Alexander, V. J.、Musser, W. N.、Mason, G.(1986)。Futures Markets and Firm Decisions Under Price, Production, and Financial Uncertainty。Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics,18,39-49。  new window
6.Robison, L. J.、Barry, P. J.(1980)。Portfolio Theory and Asset Indivisibility: Implications for Analysis of Risk Management。North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics,2,41-46。  new window
7.Rausser, G. C.(1980)。Discussion of Hedging and Joint Production: Theory and Illustrations。Journal of Finance,35,498-501。  new window
8.Peck, A. E.(1975)。Hedging and Income Stability: Concepts, Implications, an Example。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,57(3),410-419。  new window
9.Heifner, R. G.(1966)。Determining Efficient Seasonal Grain Inventories: An Application of Quadratic Programming。Journal of Farm Economics,48,648-660。  new window
學位論文
1.Peterson, P. E.(1982)。A Portfolio Theory-Based Optimal Hedging Technique with an Application to a Commercial Cattle Feedlot(博士論文)。University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign。  new window
2.Sarassoro, G. F.(1988)。International Risk Management: The Case of Cocoa and Coffee in the Ivory Coast(博士論文)。University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign。  new window
圖書
1.Box, George E. P.、Jenkins, Gwilym M.(1976)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。San Francisco, CA:Holden-Day。  new window
 
 
 
 
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