受限於空間因素，任何型態之圖書館皆無法承擔館藏量無限制的擴充。除了利用 汰書政策之外，圖書館必須藉助有效館藏量預估方法，以求達到空間與館藏成長之間的平 衡。由於館藏量分析與預估是純量化結果，所以本文試以實踐設計管理學院圖書館歷年統 計資料，利用自然科學界常使用且在量化分析上表現極為優異之「黑盒模式」（Black-Box Model）作為分析與預測館藏成長量之方法。以實踐設計管理學院圖書館為研究對象所得 結果，其館藏以直線型模式成長。預測結果之風險評估亦一併予以探討。

　　　　　Since library space is restricted, it is impossible for us to afford an increasing amount of collection without a long-term scheme. In addition to the weeding policy, a library has to estimate the future growth of its collection to reach a balance between space and multiplying collection. The prediction of collection is a quantituative subject. Therefore, based on the library data of Shih-Chien College, this study is trying to apply a very efficient wasy to quanfuture target. The outcome shows that the collection might follow a model of linear increase at Shih-Chien College. Deviation analysis is also conducted for a better estimation.