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題名:財務評等五力分析模型--以觀光業為例
書刊名:管理與資訊學報
作者:陳隆麒郭敏華 引用關係吳政穎盧雲江
作者(外文):Chen, Long-chieKuo, Min-huaWu, Cheng-yinLu, Yun-chiang
出版日期:1997
卷期:2
頁次:頁77-107
主題關鍵詞:信用評等財務比率分析Credit ratingFinancial ratio analysis
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 點閱點閱:29
     如何以系統化方式進行廠商信用評等,一直是一個受到學術與實務界關切的議題 。由現有文獻可發現,財務報表資訊對於信用評等或銀行授信評估具有十分可貴的預測力, 因此財務報表分析已成為信用評等不可或缺的一環。然而,過去的研究在尋找可用的財務比 率時,大多是利用統計數理計量模型的操作選出解釋能力較高的財務比率,幾乎清一色屬於 資料驅動 (Data Driven) 型的研究,而久缺理論架構做為研究基礎,因此信服力較低。 本研究跳脫以往資料驅動的研究方式,以廠商生存理論為基礎,發展出財務評等五力分析模 型。由五項動力來分析廠商生存成長的潛力:收益力、成長力、流動力、安定力、與活動力 。並利用財務比率分析由財務面衡量這五項動力表現。 本研究利用觀光業上市公司近三年財務資料,透過本研究所提出之財務評等五力分析模型進 行財務面信用評等,並檢視各公司舉債資金成本,發現與本研究評等結果大致吻合,初步證明 本研究之財務評等五力分析模型確實可以比較出不同公司間的風險高低,具有相當的適用性與 有效性。 本研究可達到兩項研究目的。第一、為財務比率的應用提供理論基礎。第二、為目前國內發 展中的信用評等制度提供一項財務面的評等模型。
     How to Systematically Rate the Credit of Business Has Been a concerned Issue Acdemically and Practically. According to the Literature, the Information of Financial Statements Proves to be very Useful for credit Rating. However, the Financial Ratios used are Mostly Chosen by Statistical Methods, Instead of any theory Reasoning. In Other Words, they are Mostly Data-Driven, Lack of Theoretical Structure. That's Also the Most Criticism Going about. To Avoid the Weakness of Data-Driveness, This Study developes the Financial 5-Force Credit Rating Model on the Basis of Firm theories. It Argues That Firms' Potential to be Successful Can be Analyzed by Five Dimemsions or Forces: Force of Profitability, Growth, Liquidity, Stablability, and Activity, Five Forces are Measured by financial Ratios. In Addition, this Study Analyzes the Lately Three-Year Financial Statements of Six Listed Tourism Companies (1993-1995). Through the Model Proposed by This Study, We Rank the Credit Status of Six companies. We Further Examine the Debt Cost of Each Company and Find That It is Consistent to the Ranking Result of this Study. This Proves Preliminerly That the Model of This Study is Able to tell the Difference of the Default Risk Effectively. This Research Makes Two Contributions: (1) Providing a theory Foundation for the Practice of Financial Ratios. (2) Providing a Financial Model for Credit Rating, Which is Most Concerned and Zealouslynourished in the Current Stage of Taiwan.
期刊論文
1.Horrigan, James O.(1966)。The Determination of Long-term Credit Standing with Financial Ratios。Journal of Accounting Research,4(suppl.),44-62。  new window
2.Pogue, Thomas F.、Soldofsky, Robert M.(1969)。What's in a Bond Rating?。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,4(2),201-228。  new window
3.Perry, L. G.、Henderson, G. V. Jr.、Cronan, T. P.(1984)。Multivariate Analysis of Corporate Bond Ratings and Industry Classifications。The Journal of Financial Research,7(1),27-36。  new window
4.Alchian, A. A.、Demsetz, H.(1972)。Production, Information Costs, and Economic Oranization。American Economic Review。  new window
5.Pinches, George E.、Mingo, Kent A.(1973)。A Multivariate Analysis Industrial Bond Ratings。Journal of Finance。  new window
6.Morris, Robert B. III(1982)。Fundamental Factor Affecting Electric Utility Bond Ratings: A Quantitative Approach。Financial Analysis Journal。  new window
7.Coase, Ronald H.(1937)。The Nature of the Firm。Economica,4(16),386-405。  new window
8.Jensen, Michael C.、Meckling, William H.(1976)。Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure。Journal of Financial Economics,3(4),305-360。  new window
學位論文
1.石月華(1993)。建立銀行授信信用評估模式之研究(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.王麗淑(1994)。以財務比率建立銀行放款信用評估模式(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.Alves, Jeffery R.(1978)。The Prediction of Small Business Failure Utilizing Financial and Nofinancial Data(博士論文)。The University of Massachusetts。  new window
4.李惠民(1985)。台灣地區紡織業上市公司經營績效之評估(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.林怡真(1994)。因素分析對羅吉斯迴歸預測力之影響--在財務模式歸類上之應用(碩士論文)。交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.林麗芬(1992)。我國財務比率與經營績效之研究(碩士論文)。靜宜大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.侯偉晉(1995)。我國上市公司產業間財務比率之研究(碩士論文)。成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.洪榮華(1984)。不景氣時我國經營不良上市公司財務比率之探討(碩士論文)。中山大學企業。  延伸查詢new window
9.陳文生(1989)。財務分析於銀行放款信用評估之研究(碩士論文)。中山大學。  延伸查詢new window
10.曾炎裕(1996)。上市公司信用評等與財務績效之研究--以食品、鋼鐵、電子資訊業爲例(碩士論文)。政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
11.黃小玉(1988)。銀行放款信用評估模式之研究--最佳模式之選擇(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Hannan, M. T.、Freeman, J.(1989)。Organization ecology。Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press。  new window
2.Arrow, Kenneth J.(1974)。The Limits of Organization。New York:W. W. Norton。  new window
3.Galbraith, John Kenneth(1967)。The New Industrial State。Houghton Mifflin Press。  new window
4.Williamson, Oliver E.(1975)。Market and Hierarchies: Analysis and Antitrust Implications。New York:The Free Press。  new window
5.Berger, B.、Kellner, H.、Berger, P.(1973)。The Homeless Mind: Modernization and Consciousness。New York, NY:Vintage Books。  new window
6.王淑芬(1985)。股票上市公司財務績效基準之設定--塑膠、水泥、食品業之實證研究。華泰書局。  延伸查詢new window
7.陳錦村(1995)。以財務比率評估銀行授信風險。財圑法人金融聯合徵信中心。  延伸查詢new window
8.馮拙人(1995)。財務報表分析。大中國圖書公司。  延伸查詢new window
9.Belkaoui, Ahmed(1980)。Industrial Bond Ratings: A New Look, Fanacial Managment。  new window
10.Vroom, Victor. H(1969)。Industry Social Psychology, Handbook of Social Psychology, Gardner Lindzey and Elliot Aronson。Reading, Mass:Addison-Wesley。  new window
11.Williamson, Oliver E.(1985)。The Economic Institutions of Capitalism。Free Press。  new window
12.Bottomore, Tom(1974)。Labor and Monopoly Capital: The Degrading of Work in the Twentieth Century。New York:Monthly Review Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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