中共「新華社」於二月廿日清晨二時四十一分正式公佈鄧小平於二月十九日廿一 時零八分在北京逝世，享年九十三歲。此一死訊的發佈，不但結束了長期以來國內外媒體對 鄧小平健康情形及生死的諸多臆測，同時亦為中共政局帶來深遠的影響。 當然世人最關切的問題是鄧小平遺留下來的「政治遺產」由誰來接班，現階段以江澤民 為核心的領導階層確能掌控權力之穩定性，或是做必要之調整以達內部權力平衡，如此後鄧 時期大陸情勢發展必牽動兩岸政局之影響。 今年中共有兩大政治任務必須完成。一為是七月一日中共對香港行使主權;其次是下半 年即將召開「十五大」，正式完成第三代領導集團的政治接班。因此，如何維持中國大陸改 革開放之穩定與持續經濟發展，營造後鄧時期有利的局面實為考驗其領導人之智慧。然而在 這變動的過程中，其發展情形並非如此順暢，我們或許從其政治情勢的走向、經濟之發展、 軍隊之動向、外交政策之取向與未來兩岸關係之發展中窺知一二，以做為爾後我大陸政策之 參考。 可以預知的，短期間大陸政局可能沒有太大變化，然長期之下或許有驚人之發展，其變 動之格局尤在「十五大」之後人事的安排，深值吾人觀察。後鄧時期如果新的領導階層不能 有所新作為，以及從事政經改革之發展，深信在其未來制度化與法制化的社會中，大陸政情 發展難有新的格局。綜括來說，兩岸最高領導人須以大智慧，排除萬難重開協商大門，在相 互尊重下，營造新契機。

　　　　　On the morning of February 20, 1997, at 2:40, the "Shin Hua" agency of the Chinese Communist Party announced officially that Premier Deng Hsio-Ping age 93 had died. This message of his death at 21:08 the previous day not only ended the suspicions about Deng's health, both at home and abroad, but also had a far-reaching influence for the Chinese Communist political situation. There is no doubt that people are much concerned about the problem of who will succeed the "political legacy" left by Deng. Of particular concern is whether Jiang Zemin's leadership can maintain the stability of his power, or will some adjustments be needed to keep the inner balance of power. Because of this, the situation of the post-Deng era could influence cross-strait politics. This year (1997), the Chinese Communists must accomplish two major political tasks. One is to take over the sovereignty of Hong Kong; the other is the opening of the 15□ People's Congress which will formally accomplish the political transition of the leadership power. How to maintain the stability and economic development of China's reform will depend on the wisdom of that leadership. However, in the transition period, the process of change does not go smoothly. It may be observed from the on-going political situation, the economic progress, the tendency of the military, the diplomatic policy, and the development of cross-Strait relations and policy. Mainland China will not change much in a short time, but it will progress dramatically in the long term. If the new leadership emerging from the 15□ People's Congress can not have a more open policy than before, and continue the reform of politics and economics, it is assured that in the near future the Mainland�s situation can hardly build a new structure of society based on law. The post-Deng era can bring new opportunity with mutual respect should political leaders on both sides of the Strait reopen the gate of negotiation.