安全、經濟及效率一直是交通工程師努力之目標。針對安全目標而言，當車輛通 過路口時，易與其他車流產生分流、併流及交叉等衝突行為，故車輛於道路系統中行進時， 均會因不同之交織行為而產生不同之衝突或肇事。因此車輛在行經平面交叉路口時，每一部 車都將面臨到危險或衝突，所以，如何計算出路口之衝突量，乃為路口安全分析上重要課題 ，且透過衝突量之計算，不但可作為道路規劃者之參考準則，亦可讓用路對於路口之安全性 有更深一層之了解。然過去分析路口之衝突時，大都著重於衝突點之計算，並未考量衝突之 發生潛在機率、流量大小及車輛位置等因素。因此，本研究乃從期望值之觀點，分別建立交 叉、併入及分出之衝突量模式，冀望能藉由此類模式提供交通工程師於比較分析路口安全性 及從事事前事後評估工作時之參考。

　　　　　Safety, economy, and efficiency are the major concerns of traffic engineers. With regard to safety, conflicts may occur in the intersections due to crossing, merging or diverging of traffic. Therefore, vehicles are likely to face some potential risk when they go through an intersection. It is very important to analyze the possible conflicts at an intersection for road users and planners. Most previous research efforts were focused on estimation of conflict points. It is hard to evaluate the exact conflicts at an intersection by the result of conflict points. This paper investigates relevant factors of conflicts, such as probability of conflict, flow and vehicle position. The objective of this study is to setup the crossing, diverging, and merging models based on expected values. Traffic engineers can evaluate the degree of safety at an intersection by the proposed formulas when they conduct before and after study.