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題名:以基因演算法改進臺灣股價指數模擬的可行性
書刊名:證券市場發展季刊
作者:李桐豪 引用關係
作者(外文):Lee, Tung-hao
出版日期:1997
卷期:9:4=36
頁次:頁45-88
主題關鍵詞:基因演算法臺灣發行量加權股價指數指數期貨相關係數Genetic algorithmsTaiwan weighted stock indexIndex futureCorrelation coefficien
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:4
  • 點閱點閱:43
     本文以屬於人工智慧之一的基因演算法模擬臺灣發行量加權股價指數,並與相同權數及隨機權數之天真模擬及傳統二次規劃法模擬的指數作比較。結果發現,以簡單方式選定一組大樣本的股票環境中,基因演算法可模擬出與加權股價指數報酬率平均相關係數高達95% 以上的指數,優於其他所使用的方法,而篩選出的平均家數也較其他方法為少。在一定的前提假設下,模擬指數組合的風險也與市場風險相當。因此即使在大樣本環境中,實務界使用基因演算法來改進臺灣發行量加權股價指數的模擬應是可行的。
     This article experiments with genetic algorithms, a branch of artificial intelligence, in simulating Taiwan's weighted stock index, and compares the results with those by naive and quadratic programming simulation. Results indicate that with a simple method in stock sampling, the simulated index is highly correlated with the Taiwan's stock index in terms of returns. The overall correlation is over 95% and is better than other method used for comparison. Also, under certain presumptions, the simulated stock index is well diversified and has only the market risk. It is therefore feasible of using genetic algorithms in simulating stock index. In the future, if we modify the objective function to include the autocorrelation behavior of stock index, genetic algorithms should be an effective tool in simulating the Taiwan's stock index.
期刊論文
1.Dorsey, R.、Mayer, W.(1995)。Genetic Algorithms for Estimation Problems with Multiple Optima, Nondifferentiability, and Other Irregular Features。Journal of Business Economics and Statistics,13(1),53-66。  new window
2.Arifovic, J.(1996)。The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies。Journal of Political Economy,104(3),510-541。  new window
3.李桐豪(19970000)。臺灣股票市場投資家數與可分散風險關係之分析。證券市場發展,9(3)=35,63-89。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.朱富春(19910300)。論股價指數。證交資料,347,1-6。  延伸查詢new window
5.王言(19920700)。簡介股價指數期貨市場。證交資料,363,1-10。  延伸查詢new window
6.朱富春(19910200)。論股價指數。證交資料,346,1-9。  延伸查詢new window
7.陳文練(19941100)。我國股價指數計算方式之檢討。證券管理,12(11),17-40。  延伸查詢new window
8.單高年(19950300)。開放國內股價指數期貨對現貨市場可能發生之影響及其因應之道。證券管理,13(3),33-52。  延伸查詢new window
9.詹芬樺、謝淑玲(19960800)。投資股價指數期貨因應之對策。臺灣經濟金融月刊,32(8)=379,10-15。  延伸查詢new window
10.Arifovic, J.(1995)。Genetic Algorithms and Inflationary Economies。Journal of Monetary Economics,36(1),219-243。  new window
11.Farley, A. M.、Jones, S.(1994)。Using a Genetic Algorithm to Determine an Index of Leading Economic Indicators。Computational Economics,7(3),163-173。  new window
12.Fraser, A. S.(1957)。Simulation of genetic systems by automatic Digital Computers. I. Introduction。Australian Journal of Biological Sciences,10,484-491。  new window
13.Fraser, A. S.(1957)。Simulation of Genetic Systems by Automatic Digital Computers, II. Effects of Linkage on Rates of Advance under Selection。Australian Journal of Biological Sciences,10,10-492。  new window
14.Fraser, A. S.(1960)。Simulation of Genetic Systems by Automatic Digital Computers. IV. Epistasis。Australian Journal of Biological Sciences,13,329-346。  new window
15.Fraser, A. S.(1962)。Simulation of Genetic Systems。Journal of Theoretical Biology,2(3),329-346。  new window
16.Reed, J.、Toombs, R.、Barricelli, N. A.(1967)。Simulation of biological evolution and machine learning: I. Selection of self-reproducing numeric patterns by data processing machines, effects of hereditary control, mutation type and crossing。Journal of Theoretical Biology,17(3),319-342。  new window
17.Holland, John H.(1992)。Genetic Algorithms。Scientific American,267(1),66-72。  new window
18.Marengo, L.、Tordjman, H.(1996)。Speculation, Hetrogeneity, and Learning: Asimulation Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics。Kyklos,49(3),407-438。  new window
19.Vose, Michael D.(1991)。Generalizing the Notion of Schema in Genetic Algorithms。Artificial Intelligence,50(3),385-396。  new window
20.Fogel, D. B.(1994)。An introduction to simulated evolutionary optimization。IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks,5(1),3-14。  new window
21.Goldberg, David E.(1994)。Genetic and Evolutionary Algorithms Come of Age。Communications of the ACM,37(3),113-119。  new window
22.Leinweber, D. J.、Amott, R. D.(1990)。Quantitative and Computational Innovation in Investment Management。Journal of Portfolio Management,21(2),8-15。  new window
會議論文
1.Lowe, David(1994)。Novel Exploitation of Neural Network Methods。IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks,3623-3628。  new window
2.Holland, John H.(1969)。Adaptive Plans Optimal for Payoff-only Environments。The 2nd Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Sciences,17-20。  new window
學位論文
1.李宗祥(1989)。股價指數期貨之探索性研究(碩士論文)。國立中興大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.張文卿(1991)。股價指數期貨之研究(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.黃玉如(1993)。股價指數現貨與股價指數期貨兩者關聯性之探討--以S&P500指數為例說明(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.謝上元(1989)。期貨市場之研究--以股價指數期貨市場為中心(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.李明融(1982)。臺灣發行量加權股價指數之分析與其在證券投資應用上之研究(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.金必煌(1995)。運用遺傳基因演算法建立動態證券市場技術模型(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.李卿企(1997)。以基因演算法探討國際投資組合策略之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Davis, L. D.、Mitchell, M.(1991)。Handbook of Genetic Algorithms。New York:Van Nostrand Reinhold。  new window
2.Holland, J. H.(1975)。Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems: An Introductory Analysis with Application to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence。MI:University of Michigan Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Bremermann, H. J.、Rogson, M.、Salaff, S.(1966)。Global Properties of Evolution Processes。Natural Automata and Useful Simulations。Washington, DC:Spartan Books。  new window
2.Bremermann, H. J.、Rogson, M.、Salaff, S.(1965)。Search by Evolution。Biophysics and Cybernetic Systems。Washington, DC:Spartan Books。  new window
 
 
 
 
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