本文採取 ARIMA 轉移函數模式分析縱斷面資料以檢定國際分工有關之理論。研究 發現相對工資、相對生產力、相對價格及相對匯率顯著影響中美兩國數位式計算機產業分工 度，而相對產業研發比率則未達顯著水準。本文並產生今後數年該業分工度及其決定因素之 預測值，其中發現在西元 2000 年時，臺灣數位式計算機將與美國呈完全垂直分工型態，值 得政府產業發展部門及業界擬訂策略時加以參考。 本文採用關係函數分析方法中最高層次的 ARIMA 轉移函數模式來探討產業分工決定因素並 進行預測，在國內或國外（ ABI 資料庫）學術文獻上，尚屬創見。 對後續其他重要且具代 表性產業（或產品）的產業分工研究課題，具參考價值。

　　　　　This is a descriptive research which uses longitudinal data to test related theories of international division of labor through the ARIMA transfer function model. It concludes that four determinants (relative wage, relative productivity, relative price and relative exchange rate) are statistically significant except relative R&D. It produces the estimates of the degree of international division of labor and its determinants from 1995 to 2000 as well, which predict there exists a fully vertical devision of labor in digital computer industry between Taiwan and U.S.A. in the year of 2000, and it is helpful to make suitable strategies for both government and industry. This paper creates a good example that determinants and their forecasting of industrial division of labor are studied through ARIMA transfer function in academic literature. Following similar research projects of different important industries can take this kind of analysis for reference.