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題名：管理當局盈餘預測精確度與自願性盈餘預測揭露關係之研究
書刊名：中山管理評論
作者：劉啟群 引用關係／陳建樺
作者(外文)：Liu, Chi-chun／Chen, Them-humn
出版日期：1998
卷期：6:2
頁次：頁411-439
主題關鍵詞：盈餘預測
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(8) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:7
  • 共同引用共同引用:35
  • 點閱點閱:66
　　　　　本文旨在探討管理者盈餘預測精確度與盈餘預測揭露型態之關係。目前國內、外之研究，僅Verrecchia (1990)透過分析模型推論獲知：管理當局私有資訊精確度愈高時，投資者對保留資訊之公司將折減較高價值，因此，管理者有誘因增加其揭露意願。而盈餘預測是管理當局私有資訊之一，故本文預期：當管理者盈餘預測愈精確，其自願性盈餘預測揭露意願也愈強，較傾向選擇愈常揭露之政策。 本研究取樣自臺灣經濟新報社（TEJ）資料庫，搜集1986∼1995年間橫跨20種產業之152家公司，並剔除1991∼1995年間被強制揭露之年度盈餘預測資料，再利用單變量及控制相關變數多元之N order Logit統計分析方法，以檢驗1986~1990年間管理者盈餘預測平均精確度如何影響1991∼1995年間自願性盈餘預測揭露行為。 實證結果發現：不管是否加入控制變數均強烈支持本研究假說，即管理者過去盈餘預測平均精確度影著影響其未來長期盈餘預測揭露政策。再者，在相關敏感性分析中，此結果亦不受影響，表示管理當局從事盈餘預測揭露決策時，盈餘預測精確度是其主要考量因素之一，這正是過去實證研究所忽略之變數。其次，本研究結果可幫助投資者預測企業未來長期盈餘預測揭露行為，進而採行良好投資策略，並協助釐清盈餘變異性可能隱含不同之經濟涵義。 管理當局盈餘預測一直是投資大眾、報表使用者、以及政府機構等最關注資訊之一，同時本文初步證據顯示：管理者盈餘預測精確度和其未來盈餘預測揭露意願具顯著相關。故政府相關主管機關（如證管會）可考慮採取適度管制措施以提升管理者預測能力及揭露意願，期有效降低公司與投資者間資訊不對稱之現象，進而健全國內資本市場之發展。
　　　　　This study examines the relationship between voluntary management earnings forecasts behavior and forecast precision. Since earnings forecasts are one of the channels through which managers reveal their private information to market participants, investors react to the contents of management earnings forecasts. Furthermore, if managers are unable to disclose their earnings forecasts, investors will form their own expectation and properly discount the value of non-disclosure firms. Therefore, this paper hypothesizes that in addition to other factors (e.g., profitability, size, leverage, earnings stability and labor intensity) managers' willingness to disclose earnings forecasts also depends crucially on their ability to predict earnings (i.e., precision). This study applies N order Logit regression analysis to listed firms in Taiwan Stock Exchange from 1986 to 1995. Empirical results support our hypothesis under several alternative models and different control variables. Results of this study implies that more acceptable government regulations on management earnings forecasts are urgently needed.
期刊論文
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2.Imhoff, E. A. Jr.(1978)。The Representativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts。The Accounting Review，53(4)，836-850。  new window
3.Imhoff, Eugene A. Jr.、Paré, Paul V.(1982)。Analysis and Comparison of Earnings Forecast Agents。Journal of Accounting Research，20(2)，429-439。  new window
4.Penman, S.(1980)。An empirical investigation of the voluntary disclosure of corporate earnings forecasts。Journal of Accounting Research，18(1)，132-160。  new window
5.Verrecchia, R. E.(1983)。Discretionary disclosures。Journal of Accounting and Economics，5(3)，179-194。  new window
6.Waymire, G.(1985)。Earnings volatility and voluntary management forecast disclosure。Journal of Accounting Research，23(1)，268-295。  new window
7.Lev, Baruch、Penman, Stephen H.(1990)。Voluntary forecast disclosure, nondisclosure, and stock prices。Journal of Accounting Research，28(1)，49-76。  new window
8.Pownall, G.、Waymire, G.(1989)。Voluntary disclosure credibility and securities prices: Evidence from management earnings forecasts, 1969-73。Journal of Accounting Research，27(2)，227-245。  new window
9.Ruland, W.(1978)。The accuracy of forecasts by management and by financial analysts。The Accounting Review，53(2)，439-447。  new window
10.Hassell, J. M.、Jennings, R. H.(1986)。Relative forecast accuracy and the timing of earnings forecast announcements。Accounting Review，61(1)，58-75。  new window
11.Grossman, S. J.(1981)。The Informational Role of Warranties and Private Disclosure about Product Quality。Journal of Law and Economics，24(3)，461-483。  new window
12.Patell, J. M.(1976)。Corporate Forecasts of Earnings Per Share And Stock Price Behavior: Empirical Test。Journal of Accounting Research，14(2)，246-276。  new window
13.Maddala, G. S.(1991)。A perspective on the use of limited-dependent and qualitative variables models in accounting research。The Accounting Review，66(4)，788-807。  new window
14.吳安妮(19910200)。經理人員自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素--實證研究。會計評論，25，1-24。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Verrecchia, Robert E.(1990)。Information Quality and Discretionary Disclosure。Journal of Accounting and Economics，12(4)，365-380。  new window
16.Skinner, Douglas J.(1994)。Why firms voluntarily disclose bad News?。Journal of Accounting Research，32(1)，38-60。  new window
17.McNichols, M.(1989)。Evidence of informational asymmetries form management earnings forecasts and stock returns。The Accounting Review，64，1-27。  new window
18.Ajinkya, Bipin B.、Gift, Michael J.(1984)。Corporate Managers' Earnings Forecasts and Symmetrical Adjustments of Market Expectations。Journal of Accounting Research，22(2)，425-444。  new window
19.Frankel, Richard、McNichols, Maureen、Wilson, G. Peter(1995)。Discretionary Disclosure and External Financing。The Accounting Review，70(1)，135-150。  new window
20.Mak, Y. T.(1989)。The determinants of accuracy of management earnings forecasts: A New Zealand Study。The International Journal of Accounting，24(3)，267-280。  new window
21.Trueman, Brett(1986)。Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts?。Journal of Accounting and Economics，8(1)，53-71。  new window
22.Waymire, Gregory(1984)。Additional Evidence on the Information Content of Management Earnings Forecasts。Journal of Accounting Research，22(2)，703-719。  new window
23.吳安妮(19930400)。臺灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測資訊內涵之實證研究。會計評論，27，76-107。new window  延伸查詢new window
24.Han, J. C. Y.、Wild, J. J.、Ramesh, K.(1989)。Managers' Earnings Forecasts and Intra-Industry Information Transfers。Journal of Accounting and Economics，11(1)，3-33。  new window
25.Kim, Oliver、Verrecchia, Robert E.(1991)。Trading Volume and Price Reactions to Public Announcements。Journal of Accounting Research，29(2)，302-321。  new window
26.Lang, M. H.、Lundholm, R. J.(1993)。Cross-sectional determinants of analyst ratings of corporate disclosures。Journal of Accounting Research，31(2)，246-271。  new window
27.Jensen, Michael C.、Meckling, William H.(1976)。Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure。Journal of Financial Economics，3(4)，305-360。  new window
28.Palepu, Krishna G.(1986)。Predicting Takeover Targets: A Methodological and Empirical Analysis。Journal of Accounting & Economics，8(1)，3-35。  new window
29.詹靜秋(1993)。我國財務預測公開制度之簡介。證券管理，11(8)，43-46。  延伸查詢new window
30.Brown, L.(1988)。Comparing judgmental to extrapolative forecasts: It's time to ask why and when。International Journal of Forecasting，April，171-173。  new window
31.Diamond, D.(1985)。Optimal release of information by firms。The Journal of Finance，40(September)，1071-1094。  new window
32.Jaggi, B.、Grier, P.(1980)。A comparative analysis of forecast disclosing and non-disclosing firms。Financial Management，9(Summer)，38-43。  new window
33.Kross, W.、Lewellen, Wilbur G.、Ro, B.(1994)。Evidence on the motivation for management forecasts of corporate earnings。Managerial and Decision Economics，15(May/ June)，187-200。  new window
34.Ruland, W.、Tung, S.、George, N.(1990)。Factors associated with the disclosure of managers' forecasts。The Accounting Review，65(July)，710-721。  new window
35.Cox, C.(1985)。Further evidence on the representativeness of management earnings fore-casts。The Accounting Review，60(October)，629-701。  new window
36.Gonedes, N.、Dopuch, N.、Penman, S.(1976)。Disclosure rules, information production, and capital market equilibrium: the case of forecast disclosure rules。Journal of Accounting Research，14(Spring)，89-137。  new window
37.Han, C.、Wild, J.(1991)。Stock price behavior with managers' earnings and revenue forecasts。Journal of Accounting Research，29(Spring)，79-95。  new window
38.Jaggi, B.(1978)。A note on the information content of corporate annual earnings forecasts。The Accounting Review，53(October)，961-967。  new window
39.Jaggi, B.、Sannells, A.(1995)。The association between the accuracy of management earnings forecasts and discretionary accounting changes。Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance，10(Winter)，1-21。  new window
40.Porter, G. A.(1982)。Determinants of Accuracy of Management Forecasts of Earnings。Review of Business and Economic Research，17(Spring)，1-13。  new window
41.Pownall, G.、Wasley, C.、Waymire, C.(1993)。The stock price effects of alternative types of management earnings forecasts。The Accounting Review，68，896-912。  new window
42.Baginski, S. P.、Hassell, J. M.、Conrad, E. J.(1993)。The effects of management forecast precision on equity pricing and on the assessment of earnings uncertainty。The Accounting Review，68，913-927。  new window
會議論文
1.余朝權、楊碧雲(1994)。強制揭露下影響管理當局財務預測之準確度因素。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.黃齊堯(1994)。強制性與自願性會計資訊揭露之信賴度研究--以盈餘預測資訊為探討對象(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳招美(1994)。自願性揭露盈餘預測次數多寡之研究(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.Gaber, M.(1985)。Management Incentives to Report Forecasts of Corporate Earnings，0。  new window
4.林左陵(1995)。市場對經理人員盈餘預測辨視能力之探討，0。  延伸查詢new window
5.唐月玲(1994)。同一產業管理當局自願性盈餘預測揭露之預測訊號與資訊移轉，0。  延伸查詢new window
6.Han, C.(1986)。Management Forecasts: Incentives and Effect，Buffalo。  new window
7.McNichols, M.(1984)。The Anticipation of Earnings in Securities Markets，Los Angeles, CA。  new window
圖書
1.Lees, F. A.(1981)。Public Disclosure of Corporate Earnings Forecasts。NY：The Conference Board。  new window
 
 
 
 
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