在民國 85 年 12 月底召開「國家發展會議」之「經濟發展」的議題中，對於臺 灣地區公營事業民營化相關事項達成具體共識， 預定 5 年內完成民營化，並因而釋放出約 1.3 兆元的公股。如此大量且直接的在資本市場釋出，國內資本市場之胃納是否足以全數吸 收，而不會產生「排擠效果」？ 本文嘗試以 Branson 的資產組合平衡模型估計臺灣資本市場的規模，估計出未來 5 年資本 市場每年的胃納約有 1.4 兆元∼ 1.8 兆元的規模， 每年釋出之公股約佔市場總胃納的 0.56-28.4%。然而，由於公股的釋出集中在前三年（民國 87 ∼ 89 年），使得這三年的資 本市場產生 15.5 ∼ 31.1% 之超額供給。 另外，當公股完全按照經建會所規劃的時程表釋 出時，在民國 87 ∼ 89 年三年亦將排擠約 16 ∼ 30% 的民股發行。 因此吾人建議若能將 釋股時間拉長、不必侷限於 5 年，或改以全民釋股並輔以海外釋股， 公股的釋出應較能成 功。

　　　　　This paper investigates the impact of privatization stock floatation plan on Taiwan's stock market. As Chang and Lin (1997) indicated, the total stock floatation amount of the privatization plan is estimated over NT$1,300 billion. Impacts of such large volume of government shares on Taiwan's stock market have become one of the intriguing questions concerning the success of the ambitious privatization plan. This paper adopts Branson's Portfolio Balance approach to estimate the scale of Taiwan's stock market, and the possible "crowding out" effect of the government shares released to the market by the privatization plan. Our investigation indicates that the estimated volume for additional shares in the stock market ranges from NT$1,400 to 1,800 billion. The ambitious privatization stock floatation plan may indeed "crowd out" some private investment. If the privatization plan can be lengthened to allow room for the huag government share to a longer time span, and innovation stock float arrangements, then the ambitious plan may stand a reasonable chance of success.