本文運用馬可夫狀態轉換模型探討臺灣在1961:I-1996:IV期間產出波動的非對稱 性。我們發現兩狀態馬可夫狀態轉換模型無法具體掌握產出循環中的非對稱性。我們亦採用 三狀態馬可夫狀態轉換模型探討臺灣的產出波動是否具有如Friedman的「猛拉模型」所描述的 景氣循環非對稱性，結果我們發現到與「猛拉模型」預測不合的證據。特別是，「猛拉模型」 預測景氣衰退期過後，經濟往往會快速反彈，而非和緩的成長；此外，「猛拉模型」亦預測經 過一段緩和成長的過程後，經濟往往會陷入景氣衰退，而非快速成長。然而我們的實證研究 卻發現與上述「猛拉模型」所述景氣非對稱性完全相反的證據。

　　　　　In this paper, we use the Markov switching model to explore the asymmetric features of Taiwan's output fluctuations for the period of 1961:I to 1996:IV. We find that two-state Markov switching models do not reveal any clear evidence of business cycle asymmetry. We also examine whether Taiwan's business cycles exhibit the particular asymmetric pattern described by the 'plucking model' of business cycles a la Friedman. The issue is explored by estimating three-state Markov switching models. Our estimation results generally contradict the predictions of the 'plucking model'. In particular, the 'plucking model' predicts that periods of recessions tend to be followed by periods of fast recovery rather than periods of moderate expansion, and periods of moderate expansion tend to be followed by periods of recession rather than periods of fast economic growth. However, our results indicate the opposite.