一九九六年臺灣舉行第一次總統直接民選，中共對我沿海發射飛彈，李登輝總統 告訴國人，政府已準備好『十八套劇本』，因應中共飛彈射擊所引發的衝擊。今年（一九九 九）七月，李總統對外宣稱臺灣與大陸為『特殊的國與國關係』又引起中共強烈反擊，我國 防部將九六年十八套『劇本』縮編為十三套『劇本』。如何規劃處理危機的『劇本』？本文 探討了西方學界與實務界流行的『劇本式規劃法』（ Scenario-Planning ）， 分析在決策 者面臨危機時，該方法如何提供『判斷架構』，協助他（她）研擬『前瞻』與『獨創』的決 策方案。本文檢視 1973 年第一次石油危機發生，荷蘭皇家石油公司成功因應危機的『行動 方案』，就是『劇本式規劃法』的具體應用。抑有進者，人類即將邁入二十一世紀，如何建 構新世紀的遠景？本文探討『未來遠景建構法』（ Future State Visioning Technique ） ，加拿大『國家橡膠公司』應用該方法提昇公司的安全措施，在兩年內使公司的嚴重傷害案 件減少十倍。 本文亦做了『個案分析』。 本文還分析『策略規劃法』（ Strategic Planning ）， 重點在探討如何經由『策略規劃』排除決策者在決策時所遭遇的『不確定狀 況』，進而闡述如何運用『腦力激盪』，尋找『解決問題』的『最適』政策方案。

　　　　　This research paper attempts to examine and analyze three newdeveioped developed and widely-used policy-planning methods. Namely: "Scenario-Planning", "Future State Visioniog Technique" and "Strategic Planning". "Scenario-Planning" can effectively organize a variety of seemingly unrelated economic, technological, political, societal information and translate it into a framework for judgment for policy markers. This paper also illustrates how did the Royal Dutch/Shell Company successfully cope with the first world oil crisis during 1973 by using scenario-planning method. Now, as we approach the year 2000, and as mankind enters into the new millennium, how are we going to build our vision for the next century? This paper introduces the "Future State Visioning Technique". It also exemplifies the remarkable improvement in safety performance at National Rubber Company in Canada by applying this technique. As for "Strategic Planning", this paper tries to accomplish two purposes: (1) How do policy-makers manage the state of uncertainties when they are confronted with a decision problem? And (2) How do policy-makers utilize "brain-storming" approach to search for the "optimal" problem-solving policy alternatives? Our analysis provides innovative ideas and pragmatic proposals.