技術是應對氣候變化的重要手段,關鍵技術創新差異的擴大將不利于各國應對氣候變化的協同發展。以技術產出的專利為數據源,運用大數據挖掘工具、泰爾熵指數及空間計量學的方法和理論,分析了"一帶一路"沿線國家應對氣候變化關鍵技術創新差異的時空格局演變情況。研究結果表明:(1)沿線國家應對氣候變化關鍵技術創新差異整體上呈現下降態勢,并以初期震蕩向后期平穩有升過度。(2)按地理位置劃分的區域技術創新差異呈現高的空間集聚效應,且強強集聚與弱弱集聚具有一定時期內的穩定性,部分地區面臨陷入技術貧困陷阱風險。(3)沿線各國應對氣候變化技術創新差異存在趨同俱樂部現象,個別國家隨時間推移可能經歷不同俱樂部過度。針對這種趨同特征及各國技術需求特點可劃分為4種類別:技術轉出區、技術轉入區、技術擴散區和技術承接區。技術轉出區多集中在東歐某些經濟發達、能源依存度高的國家。為此,本文提出如下建議:(1)各國根據自身情況制定減排政策的同時,需要國際社會制定與其相適應的差異化且有側重的援助方案。(2)技術創新強國在涉及應對氣候變化技術轉移知識產權等事項上應該給予技術需求國讓步。同時,技術轉移應考慮區域協同及地理鄰近的擴散。(3)中國應發揮好南南合作援助基金的作用,加強特定區域內共性技術的幫扶力度,建立與適宜國家間關鍵技術聯合研發與示范機制,樹立大國形象。(4)中國應加快沿線戰略布局,根據不同區域各國應對氣候變化的現狀及其技術能力制定差異化的產業和技術轉移的政策,加強與沿線國家的技術合作與貿易往來,形成優勢互補的產業鏈。

Technology is an important means to deal with climate change. The expansion of key technology innovation differences is not conducive to the coordinated development of countries to cope with climate change. Based on the methods and theories of big data mining,Theil index and spatial econometrics,this paper analyzes the evolution of spatial and temporal pattern of key technology innovation differences of countries along ‘the Belt and Road’Initiative with the patent of technology innovation output as the data source. The results show that: first,the difference of key technology innovation of climate change in countries along the route shows a declining trend on the whole,and the initial shock is smooth to the later stage. Second,regional technology innovation differences shows a high spatial agglomeration effect. The aggregation patterns of High-innovation to High-clustering( H-H) and Low-innovation to Lowclustering( L-L) have a certain period of stability. Some regions are facing the risk of being trapped in technical poverty trap. Third,there are convergence clubs in different countries along the route on climate technology innovation,and individual countries may experience different clubs over time. According to the characteristics of convergence and technical needs of those countries,four categories can be distinguished: technology transferring out area,technology diffusion area,technology undertakes area and technology transferring in area. Technology transferring out area is more concentrated in some economically developed and energy-dependent eastern countries. Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations are as follows: first,it is necessary for the international community to develop a differentiated and focused assistance program while countries developed emission reduction policies according to their own situation. Second,technology innovation power should give technical demander to the concession in matters related to the handling of intellectual property rights of technology transfer on climate change. Meanwhile,technology transfer should take into account the regional synergies and geographical proximity of the diffusion effect. Third,China should play the role of SouthSouth Cooperation Assistance Fund,strengthen the help of common technologies in specific regions,establish a joint research and demonstration mechanism with appropriate national on key technologies,and establish the image of great powers. Fourth,China should speed up the strategic layout along the route,develop differentiated industry and technology transfer policies based on the status quo of climate change in different regions and their technical capacity,and strengthen technical cooperation and trade with countries along the route to form a complementary industrial chain.