應對氣候變化的進程已經在全球范圍內對社會經濟發展方式的根本性轉變提出了要求。改革開放以來,我國產業經濟結構得到了一定的改變,與其他發達國家相比,產業經濟結構自身還存在較大的優化空間。本文基于1992、1997、2002、2007、2010年的投入產出表,采用IO-SDA方法(Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis)將碳排放量的變化分解為能源結構效應、能源強度效應、增加值效應、Leontief逆矩陣效應、最終需求效應,從而得到經濟結構歷史變化對于CO2排放的作用。研究結果顯示,我國能源消耗導致的排放增加主要是最終需求效應與Leontief逆矩陣效應;除2002-2007年,能源強度效應始終為負,且為促進CO2排放減少的主要因素;我國終端能源結構除了1997-2002年得到了優化,其他階段卻一直在朝著高碳化的方向發展。通過構建碳排放影響力系數和碳排放感應度系數對各個部門的評價結果顯示,國民經濟中的基礎性行業大多是高耗能的行業,未來節能減排重點需要逐步降低第二產業在國民經濟中的比重,但在具體部門層次上應制定有所區別的政策:煤炭開采和洗選業等部門應保持一定的比重,不可一味降低,可更多從技術進步方面制定節能政策;通用專用設備制造業等部門可以考慮從提高能源利用效率方面改進;非金屬礦物制品業等部門可以在保證人們生產生活的基礎上來盡可能地降低比重;食品制造及煙草加工業等第二產業部門及房地產業至公共管理和社會組織等第三產業中的服務業部門應大力提高其在經濟結構中的比重。

Combating climate change required social economic development huge changes. Since the reform and opening-up policy,the economic structure of China has obtained certain changes; however,comparing with some developed countries,it still has further optimization space. Based on the input-output table of 1992,1997,2002,2007 and 2010,using the IO-SDA( Input-Output Structure Decomposition Analysis) method,this article decomposes the change of carbon emissions into energy structural effect,energy intensity effect,value added effect,Leontief inverse matrix effect and final demand effect,therefore developing the effect of the economic structure changes to the CO2 emission. The results show that China’s increasing emission caused by energy consumption is mainly due to the final demand effect and the Leontief reverse matrix effect. It also shows that except for 2002- 2007,the energy intensity effect is always negative and is the main reason of the CO2 emission reduction. So it can be concluded that final energy mix has only been optimized during 1997- 2002,and in the other years,it ’s moving toward to higher carbonation. By constructing the influence coefficient and the reaction coefficient of carbon emission,and making relevant assessment,the results show that the basic industries of the national economy are energy intensive,the future energy conservation should focus on the reduction of the proportion of the secondary industry in the national economy,which is based on differentiated policy of different industries. For example,mining and washing of coal sector should keep certain share and couldn’t decrease all the time,more technology innovation energy saving policy should be paid attention. Manufacture of general purpose machinery sector could consider the energy saving by improving the energy efficiency. Manufacture of non-metal mineral products sector could decrease its share as far as possible to ensure primay requirements from production and consumption. Manufacture of food and process of tobacco sector and real estate developmeng,public management,social security and social organizations could increase the share in the total economy.