關于中等收入陷阱存在與否一直有爭議。基于轉移概率矩陣和對一致增長理論的解釋,澄清了否認中等收入陷阱存在的質疑。在增長理論框架下,從技術進步的視角,對發展中國家陷入中等收入陷阱的原因、機制和條件的研究表明,能否跨越中等收入陷阱,在根本上取決于后發國家依靠自主研發所獲得的技術增長率,是否高于前沿國家的技術增長率。中國國家創新體系的構建和創新驅動發展戰略的實施,為跨越中等收入陷阱奠定了制度基礎。

Some doubts have been expressed over the existence of the middle income trap.On the basis of a transition probability matrix and the uniform growth theory interpretation,we clarify the queries about its existence,using agrowth theory framework to research the causes,mechanisms and conditions of the middle income trap in developing countries from the perspective of technological progress.Our findings show that whether a developing country can escape the middle income trap depends upon whether the technological growth rate it achieves through independent R&D is higher than that of frontier countries.The construction of a national innovation system and the implementation of an innovation-driven development strategy in China are laying an institutional foundation that will enable the country to vault over the middle income trap.