運用中國2012年投入產出表,基于可計算一般均衡模型量化研究了煤炭價格波動對制造業各部門實際產出和成本的影響以及煤炭價格波動的宏觀經濟效應。研究結果表明:煤炭價格波動與制造業各部門實際產出的變動呈負相關,與成本的變動呈正相關;相同煤炭價格沖擊下,化學工業的實際產出變動幅度最大,而非金屬礦物制品業的成本變動幅度最大;煤炭價格上漲對GDP和出口的沖擊為負,對就業、CPI和進口的影響為正,煤炭價格下降的效應與之相反;各部門實際產出、成本和宏觀變量的變動幅度隨煤炭價格波動幅度的增大而增大;相同沖擊下存在煤炭價格波動的非對稱性,煤炭價格下降的實際產出效應、成本效應和宏觀經濟效應更顯著。最后提出要充分發揮市場倒逼機制下的政府調控作用,循序漸進地推行反映能源稀缺和環境成本的價格政策。

This paper studies the impacts of coal price fluctuation on real output and cost of manufacturing industries and on macro economy based on computable general equilibrium model by using China’s input-output table in 2012.The results show that: there are negative correlations between coal price fluctuation and the change of real output while positive correlations between coal price fluctuation and the change of cost; under the same price shock,chemical industry has the biggest change of real output while nonmetallic mineral products has the biggest change of cost; the rise in coal price will product negative effect on GDP and export,and positive effect on employment,CPI and import,the decline in coal price is on the contrary; the change of real output and cost,and the change of macro variables increase with the coal price volatility; asymmetry is found under the same price shock,coal prices decline will have more significant effect on the real output and cost of manufacturing sectors and on the macro economy. Finally,we put forward to that the government should play a regulation role fully in the market forced mechanism,and push the coal price policy gradually which can reflect the energy scarcity and environmental costs.