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引文資料
題名:
碳調度模式下火力發電商的碳減排投資策略分析
書刊名:
中國管理科學
作者:
張新華
/
盧燦華
/
陳志偉
出版日期:
2017
卷期:
2017(11)
頁次:
179-188
主題關鍵詞:
期權博弈
;
碳減排投資
;
發電市場
;
Option game
;
Carbon abatement investment
;
Power market
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:0
共同引用:0
點閱:3
論文首先提出了基于發電成本最小的碳排放約束電力上網機制,在此基礎上構建不對稱的寡頭發電商碳減排投資期權博弈模型,模型的數值分析結果表明:1)發電商碳減排投資以后的上網電價,對寡頭發電商的投資行為有顯著影響:即存在一個上網電價"閾值",當上網電價低于該閾值時,只有低排放發電商有碳減排投資動機;而當上網電價高于該閾值時,高排放發電商則會領先進行碳減排投資;只有當上網電價等于該閾值時,兩發電商會同時進行碳減排投資;2)上述發電商碳減排投資以后上網電價閾值與碳排放標準等參數有關。
以文找文
The Chinese government has already announced the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The survey report denotes that China’s carbon emissions are mainly derived from the energy industry,primarily coal.At present,coal-fired power generation capacity accounts for about 75% of the total generation capacity,and thermal power generation accounts for about 80% of the gross generation in China.Therefore,the implementation of carbon abatement policy in the power market is crucial to achieve the goal of China’s carbon emissions goals.Currently,carbon abatement measures in power market can be divided into two categories:long term and short term measures.The short-term measures are to reduce carbon emissions through optimize carbon dispatching mechanism,and the long-term measures include developing the renewable energy(e.g.hydroelectric,wind power,photovoltaic,etc.),or upgrading the existing thermal power generator units to reduce carbon emissions per unit.In fact,the generation of coal-fired power units is mainly determined based on its generation capacity,currently,and the carbon emission levels of generating units were neglected in China.Therefore,the generating units with high carbon emissions have no incentives to make investment in carbon abatement.In the other hand,most existing literatures are based on the assumption of mature carbon market.However,it may take some time to establish the real carbon market in China.Therefore,this paper establishes a framework aiming to minimize the power generation cost while satisfying carbon emissions constraints.Moreover,the carbon abatement investment model considering asymmetric carbon emission in oligopoly market was proposed based on the option game theory,to explore the carbon abatement investment strategy for naive and rational thermal power generation-companies,whose numerical analysis results show that,a)generation company’s investment behaviours are largely affected by a threshold of feed-in tariff after the carbon abatement investment.When the feed-in tariff is lower than the threshold,only low emission generation-companies have the motives to make carbon abatement investment;when the feed-in tariff is higher than the threshold,high emission generation-companies will lead to the carbon abatement investment;only when feed-in tariff is equal to the threshold,two power generation-companies to invest carbon abatement at the same time.b)The threshold related to the parameters such as carbon emissions standards.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
崔百勝、朱麟(2016)。基於內生增長理論與GVAR模型的能源消費控制目標下經濟增長與碳减排研究。中國管理科學,24(1),11-20。
延伸查詢
2.
康重慶、陳啟鑫、夏清(2009)。低碳電力技術的研究展望。電網技術,33(2),1-7。
延伸查詢
3.
Zhou, Wenji、Zhu, Bing、Fuss, Sabine(2010)。Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China's power sector。Applied Energy,87(7),2392-2400。
4.
趙黎明、殷建立(2016)。碳交易和碳稅情景下碳减排二層規劃決策模型研究。管理科學,29(1),137-146。
延伸查詢
5.
馬秋卓、宋海清、陳功玉(2014)。碳配額交易體系下企業低碳產品定價及最優碳排放策略。管理工程學報,28(2),127-136。
延伸查詢
6.
程發新、邵世玲(2016)。基於階段劃分的企業主動碳减排創新策略實施研究。中國管理科學,24(8),28-36。
延伸查詢
7.
張俊榮、王孜丹、湯鈴(2016)。基於系統動力學的京津冀碳排放交易政策影響研究。中國管理科學,24(3),1-8。
延伸查詢
8.
Wang, Xiping、Du, Lei(2016)。Study on carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment decision-making based on real options for China's coal-fired power plants。Journal of Cleaner Production,112(5),4123-4131。
9.
Zhu, Lei、Fan, Ying(2013)。Modelling the investment in carbon capture retrofits of pulverized coal-fired plants。Energy,57,66-75。
10.
Zhang, Xian、Wang, Xingwei、Chen, Jiajun(2014)。A novel modeling based real option approach for CCS investment evaluation under multiple uncertainties。Applied Energy,113,1059-1067。
11.
王素鳳、楊善林、彭張林(2016)。面向多重不確定性的發電商碳减排投資研究。管理科學學報,2016(2),41-57。
延伸查詢
12.
Walsh, D. M.、O'Sullivan, K.、Lee, W. T.(2014)。When to invest in carbon capture and storage technology: A mathematical model。Energy Economics,42,219-225。
13.
Masini, A.、Menichetti, E.(2012)。The impact of behavioral factors in the renewable energy investment decision making process: Conceptual framework and empirical findings。Energy Policy,40,28-38。
14.
Fuss, S.、Szolgayova, J.、Khabarov, N.(2012)。Renewables and climate change mitigation: Irreversible energy investment under uncertainty and portfolio effects。Energy Policy,40,59-68。
15.
Fuss, S.、Szolgayova, J.(2010)。Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning。Applied Energy,87(9),2938-2944。
16.
Fan, Lin、Hobbs, B. F.、Norman, C. S.(2010)。Risk aversion and CO2 regulatory uncertainty in power generation investment: Policy and modeling implications。Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,60(3),193-208。
17.
Zhou, Wenji、Zhu, Bing、Chen, Dingjiang、Zhao, Fangxian、Fei, Weiyang(2014)。How policy choice affects investment in low-carbon technology: The case of CO2 capture in indirect coal liquefaction in China。Energy,73,670-679。
18.
Azevedo, A.、Paxson, D.(2014)。Developing real option game models。European Journal of Operational Research,237(3),909-920。
19.
Fuss, S.、Johansson, D. J. A.、Szolgayova, J.、Obersteiner, M.(2009)。Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on the Adoption of Electricity Generating Technologies。Energy Policy,37(2),733-743。
20.
Abadie, L. M.、Chamorro, J. M.(2008)。European CO2 Prices and Carbon Capture Investments。Energy Economics,30(6),2992-3015。
圖書
1.
Dixit, A. K.、Pindyck, R. S.(1994)。Investment under Uncertainty。Princeton University Press。
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