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題名:巴黎協定下主要國家自主減排力度評估和比較
書刊名:中國人口.資源與環境
作者:潘勛章王海林
出版日期:2018
卷期:2018(9)
頁次:8-15
主題關鍵詞:氣候變化巴黎協定自主貢獻排放配額2050年目標Climate changeParis AgreementNDCEmissions allowances2050 targets
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巴黎協定確認了將本世紀末全球平均溫升控制在不超過工業化前2℃并努力控制在1.5℃內的長期目標。合理地評估和比較各國國家自主貢獻(NDC)減排力度將是全球集體盤點的主要內容之一,對于促進各國提振自主減排力度進而彌補與2℃甚至1.5℃的排放差距具有重要價值。本文在選取的2℃和1.5℃全球排放路徑下,運用基于16種分配方案的排放配額為比較依據和基準,對中國、印度、巴西、南非四個發展中國家和美國、歐盟(28)、日本、俄羅斯四個發達國家和地區NDC對應的CO2減排力度進行評估。研究結果表明,發達國家NDC總體上位于2℃配額范圍最上端或高于最大配額,距離實現1.5℃目標缺口很大,因此,發達國家需盡量提振其NDC力度,帶頭強化減排。對于我國而言,相比2030年當年評估,基于累計排放的評估結果將更可能準確地揭示我國NDC力度及其公平性,我國NDC位于2℃累計配額中位數附近且符合1.5℃累計配額范圍。巴黎協定還要求各國在2020年前提交面向2050年的長期減排目標。本文從碳排放配額的角度發現,若要使本世紀中期CO2排放滿足2℃和1.5℃配額,我國到2050年至少需要相對2010年減排約42%和65%,相應的2030—2050年CO2年均減排率需要至少達到3.0%和5.3%,這或可為我國決策部門考慮2050年減排目標提供參考。
The Paris Agreement established a long-term goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1. 5℃ by the end of this century. Therefore,properly assessing and comparing national NDC mitigation ambitions would be a main content in global stocktake,which is important to the considerations of enhancing efforts to close the emissions gap with 2℃ and 1. 5℃. To this end,this paper assesses the NDC ambition of China,India,Brazil,South Africa,the USA,EU-28,Japan and Russia,respectively,by applying emissions allowances allocated by 16 effort-sharing approaches under selected 2℃ and 1. 5℃ pathways. Results demonstrate that,the NDCs of developed countries generally locate above or in the upper-ends of the 2℃-consistent ranges of emissions allowances and present even big gaps with the 1. 5℃-consistent ranges,implying developed countries need to ratchet up the NDCs and take the lead in elevating the level of mitigation. An assessment based on cumulative emissions,compared against that based on 2030 emissions,is more likely to clarify the ambition and fairness of China’s NDC. The projected NDC emissions of China meet the median of cumulative allowances under 2℃ and align with the 1. 5℃-consistent ranges. The Paris Agreement also invited the Parties to communicate,by 2020,the mid-century,long-term low emissions strategies. To hold mid-century emissions within calculated 2050 emissions allowances,our allocations find that China might need to reduce CO2 emissions by over 42% and 65% from the 2010 levels under 2℃ and 1. 5℃,respectively by 2050. The corresponding annual mitigation rates,from 2030 to 2050,are at least 3. 0% and 5. 3% in average,respectively. These might help China ’s decision-makers consider the 2050 mitigation targets.
 
 
 
 
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