作為調和經濟增長與環境壓力的減排工具,碳交易政策的實施效果關系到中國減排目標的實現與經濟模式的選擇。本文通過構建點彈性與弧彈性兩類Tapio脫鉤指標,基于倍差法(DiD)與半參數倍差法(SPDiD)分析了2007—2015年碳交易機制對中國經濟發展水平、經濟發展與碳排放脫鉤水平的影響,為助力中國擺脫碳陷阱、促進低碳經濟發展提供參考。研究結果表明,碳交易市場能夠將碳排放的負外部性轉換為內部性,促使試點地區進一步優化資源配置,由此中國碳試點政策的提出與實施并未導致試點地區GDP與人均GDP增速放緩;同時試點政策促進碳排放與經濟增長的脫鉤可轉換為促進碳強度的降低,則碳交易體系顯著促進了碳排放與經濟增長兩者的脫鉤水平,助力中國擺脫碳陷阱。基于市場機制的碳交易能夠激勵高污染行業結構調整,淘汰落后產能,促進產業結構"由重變輕"、能源結構"由黑變綠",解決污染與經濟發展的矛盾。且碳市場的構建有效實現了"碳試點計劃"的目標,完成了碳交易體系構建初期的目的,達到構建全國統一碳交易市場的要求。應積極推進碳交易體系建設,發揮碳強度目標的碳脫鉤功效,完善市場交易制度,維持市場運行穩定;全國統一碳市場短期應以推進碳排放和經濟增長脫鉤為主要目標,綜合考慮減排與經濟增長的關聯,并積極發揮其創新效應。

As a CO2 abatement instrument of reconciling the conflict of economic growth and environmental pressure, the implementation effect of carbon emissions trading scheme is related to the realization of China’s emission abatement target and the choice of economic pattern. In This paper,Tapio decoupling index of point elasticity and arc elasticity was established,and the impact of carbon trading mechanism on China’s economic development level,and the decoupling level of economic development and carbon emission were analyzed by difference-in-difference（ Di D） model and semi parametric difference-in-difference（ SPDi D） model with the provincial panel data in 2007-2015 for helping China to get rid of carbon traps and promoting the development of low carbon economy.The results showed that the carbon trading market could transform the negative externality of carbon emission into internality and optimize resource allocation,and hence the implementation of China’s carbon pilot policy would not reduce the growth rate of GDP and per capita GDP in the pilot area. Meanwhile the pilot policy of promoting decoupling could be converted to the pilot policy of reducing carbon intensity,and the carbon trading system could promote the decoupling level between carbon emission and economic growth,helping China to get rid of the carbon traps. The carbon trading based on the market mechanism could stimulate the structure adjustment of the high pollution industry,eliminate the backward production capacity,promote industrial structure ‘from heavy to light’and energy structure ‘from black to green’,and solve the contradiction between pollution and economic development. The construction of the carbon market could realize the goal of the‘carbon pilot project’,achieve the goal of the initial construction of the carbon trading system,and meet the requirement for the construction of a national unified carbon trading market. The government should promote the construction of carbon trading system,play the role of carbon intensity for carbon decoupling,improve market trading system and maintain stable operation of the market; the national unified carbon market should take the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth as the main goal in the short term,consider the correlation between emission reduction and economic growth,and actively play its innovative effect.