利用第五次和第六次人口普查數據,分析人口流動對于中國城鎮化水平的影響,研究發現:不同流動人口統計歸屬背景下城鎮化水平會發生較大的變化,人口流動使得最近兩次人口普查的常住人口城鎮化水平分別比戶籍人口城鎮化水平高了4.41和9.59個百分點;流動人口的流入和流出同時抬高了流出地與流入地的城鎮化水平,東部地區省份和中西部地區部分省份城鎮化水平比實際水平高了10個百分點以上;在剔除了流動人口的影響以后,最近兩次人口普查間的城鎮化水平提高了7.01個百分點,而不是數據顯示的12.18個百分點,流動人口的正確歸屬使得城鎮化水平降低了5.17個百分點;跨省流入人口、省內流動人口和跨省流出人口在不同的省份扮演不同的角色。

Using the fifth and sixth national census data, this paper analyses the effects of floating population on urbanization level. The paper finds that the urbanization level changes greatly under the statistical belonging of floating population background. Due to the population flowing, the urbanization level of permanent residents is higher by 4.41 percentage points and 9.59 percentage points than the urbanization level of population with permanent residence register according to the two censuses. Urbanization level of outflow and inflow provinces are raised at the same time because of floating population’s inflow and outflow, and the urbanization level of provinces in East China and some provinces in Central and West China is higher by 10 percentage points than the actual level; after eliminating the influence of the floating population, the urbanization level increases by 7.01 percentage points between the recent two population censuses,not 12.18 percentage points as the data shows. The urbanization level shrinks by 5.17 percentage points after the correct statistical attribution of floating population. The cross-provinces inflow population, the inter-province floating population, and the crossprovinces outflow population play different roles in different provinces.