新型城鎮化的核心是人的城鎮化。改革開放四十年來,中國進城農村剩余勞動力群體的異質化特征越來越明顯,雖然就業與收入仍舊是影響勞動力遷移的重要因素,但是環境質量、公共服務水平也成為勞動力遷移決策的重要考量指標。基于2012和2014—2015年國家衛計委流動人口動態監測數據和國家統計局數據,統計顯示:(1)近60%的流動人口在流入地都有著明確的居留意愿,全國戶籍人口城鎮化率呈現穩步提升態勢,但地區間差距較大;(2)房價、污染物排放增長率、高等教育招生增長率存在較大的省際差異。進一步利用面板數據隨機效應模型研究發現:(1)房價、教育招生、空氣質量對流動人口居留意愿影響顯著,每平米房價提高1 000元,居留意愿將降低1.573個百分點;(2)煙塵排放每提高一個百分點,流動人口居留意愿降低3.270個百分點;(3)高等院校教育招生規模每提高一個百分點,流動人口居留意愿提高0.222個百分點。研究認為,政府應該轉變財政支出理念,由經濟建設向社會服務支出傾斜,增加教育、環境治理、保障型住房建設等社會投資支出,進而改善公共服務的質量,為流動人口創造更好的生活及發展環境,引導城鎮人口空間集聚優化。

The core of new type of urbanization is human urbanization. It has been 40 years after the China reform and opening-up.The hetero-generous characteristics of rural surplus labor groups have become more and more obvious in China. Although job opportunity and income are still the important factors that affect labor migration,environmental quality and the level of public service has also become important indicator of labor migration decisions. Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the national health and family planning commission and the data of the National Bureau of Statistics in 2012 and 2014—2015,the statistics show that:(1)Nearly 60% of the immigrating population have a clear intention to stay in urban area,and the urbanization rate of registered permanent residents in China is steadily increasing,but the gap between regions is larger than before.(2) The growth rate of estate real price,pollutant emission and the rate of higher education enrollment are different in different provinces. Further data random effects model study finds that:(1) Several factors such as estate real price,education enrollment and the air quality that significantly affect immigrating population residence. The estate real prices increase 1,000 yuan/square meter,residence intend to be cut down by 1. 573%.(2)When soot emissions increase every one percentage point,the immigrating population will be reduced by 3. 270%.(3)When education enrollment increases every one percentage point,immigrating population will be increased by 0. 222%. Studies suggest that the government should change the idea of fiscal expenditure. They should change from the economic construction to the social service expenditure,increase social investment expenditure in the fields of education,environmental governance and economical housing construction. Thus we can improve the quality of public services,create better life and development environment for immigrating population,and guide urban agglomeration optimization.