【目的】研究Pull-Request模式下,開源項目成功與協同開發行為特征的關系。【方法】從Git Hub上獲取大量Apache項目數據集,量化項目成功以及協同開發行為特征指標,通過統計分析檢驗各行為特征指標與成功的相關性。【結果】二元邏輯回歸顯示"核心成員占比"、"代碼提交頻率"、"文件平均修改次數"對于項目技術成功的影響優勢比分別為0.037, 1.427, 0.327;線性回歸顯示"核心成員占比"、"修改文件占比"、"文件平均修改次數"對于項目商業成功的影響標準系數分別為–0.426,0.221,0.195。【局限】樣本種類分布不夠均衡,影響因素考慮不夠完善。【結論】本文為提出引導項目成功的開源軟件開發過程管理對策提供了參考。

[Objective] This study investigates the relationship between the success of open source projects and collaborative development behaviors. [Methods] Firstly, we retrieved Apache project data from Git Hub to quantify successful projects and collaborative development behaviors. Then, we examined the correlations between behavioral characteristics and success with regression analysis. [Results] We found the impacts or Exp(B) of "proportion of core members", "frequency of code submission", and "the average number of file modifications" on the technically successful projects, were 0.037, 1.427 and 0.327. For the impacts of same characteristics on the commercially successful projects, the standard coefficient were –0.426, 0.221, and 0.195. [Limitations] The distribution of samples and the influencing factors need some revisions. [Conclusions] This paper provides new directions for the management of successful open source software projects.