【目的/意義】在自媒體時代,網絡輿論已成為影響社會和諧穩定的重要因素,而在復雜網絡環境下,如何來引導網絡輿論也成為管理科學決策的新問題。【過程/方法】基于"情景—應對"模式并結合8﹡12天津港爆炸事故,運用了演化博弈理論方法研究突發網絡輿論事件中網絡輿論傳播者與網絡輿論引導者群體策略選擇的演化過程。根據網絡輿論演化的不同階段建立突發網絡輿論事件的"情景—應對"演化博弈模型,最后通過數值分析得出不同參數下雙方的演化穩定策略,并對假設數值進行計算仿真分析提出相關結論和建議。【結果/結論】研究結果表明:網絡輿論引導者即政府要根據網絡輿論演化的不同階段來選擇成本適合的引導方案,同時政府作為網絡輿論引導的主體,不能過分規避風險,強調自身投入成本的最小化,如此才能達到帕累托最優,實現社會效益最大化。

【Purpose/significance】With the coming of Self-media age, the network public opinion has become a principal factor affecting social harmony and stability, how to guide the network of public opinion has become a new problem of man-agement science decision under the complex network environment.【Method/process】The paper takes the network opinioncaused by the 8*12 Tianjin Port Explosion as a case, and based on the"scenario-coping"model, using the evolutionarygame theory to research the strategy selection process of network public opinion disseminators and guider in emergency net-work public opinion incidents. And then, according to the various evolution stages,the paper builds the"scenario-coping"evolutionary game model of emergency network public opinion incidents. Finally, we get the evolutionary stable strategy ofboth sides under different parameters by numerical analysis, and obtain the related conclusions by the computer simulationanalysis of the hypothetical data.【Result/conclusion】The results show that: the network public opinion guider, that is to saythe government, should choose the suitable guidance plan according to different evolution stages of the network public opin-ion. As the main body of the network public opinion guidance, in order to achieve Pareto optimal and maximize of socialbenefits, the government can’t avoid the risk excessively and emphasize the minimization of self-cost.