【目的/意義】現實中,網媒、政府和網民共同作用引發的輿情事件幾乎涵蓋所有輿情主題。為探索網絡輿情形成階段主體研究,將系統動力學與演化博弈復制動態方程進行交叉,建立了基于SD的演化博弈模型。【方法/過程】通過系統仿真,分析了網媒、網民和政府的博弈模型,并進行系統動力學仿真,進一步探究已知變量對主體行為的影響顯著性,識別影響輿情形成階段博弈結果的關鍵變量因素。【結果/結論】以"8·12天津濱海新區爆炸事故"作實例背景,驗證模型的有效性,并提出相應的輿情管控建議。

【Purpose/significance】In reality, the online public opinion event which triggered by the common role of network media, government and netizen almost covers all of the online opinion topic.【Method/process】In order to explore the main body of the online public opinion formation stage, the system dynamics and the evolution of the dynamic equations are combined effectively, and the evolutionary game model are established based on SD. Through the simulation system, we analyzes the game model of the network media, netizen and government for system dynamics simulation to further explore the effects of known variables on subject behavior significantly, identify the impact of public opinion formation stage of the game results of key variables.【Result/conclusion】Taking "8-12 Tianjin Binhai New Area" as an example, the validity of the model are verified, and the corresponding recommendations are put forward.