本文運用計量經濟學方法,如協整檢驗和格蘭杰因果關系檢驗、脈沖響應函數等,深入研究了中國在1990-2013期間電力消耗、經濟增長與二氧化碳排放量之間的關系。研究結果表明,電力消耗、經濟增長與二氧化碳排放量之間存在協整關系,即長期均衡關系;經濟增長與電力消耗之間存在雙向的格蘭杰因果關系,但不存在電力消耗與二氧化碳排放量,經濟增長與二氧化碳排放量之間的格蘭杰因果關系。與此同時,VAR模型估計結果顯示,滯后一期的電力消耗對當期經濟增長和二氧化碳排放量產生正向的作用,滯后一期的電力消耗促進當期的電力消耗,同時也促進當期經濟增長和CO2排放量增加;經濟增長的滯后期對當期電力消耗和二氧化碳排放量產生負向的作用,而二氧化碳排放量的滯后期對當期經濟增長沒有顯著影響。基于此,實證分析結果表明經濟增長在短期內會造成二氧化碳排放量的增加,但正如環境庫茲涅茨曲線描述的結論一樣,從長期來看,經濟增長促進了技術的進步和能源效率的提高,進而導致二氧化碳排放量的減少。該發現對于中國發展低碳經濟和電力部門能源政策的制定都將有著重要現實意義。

Global climate change has attracted wide attention of the international community,countries around the world have studied climate change to develop the corresponding energy policy.China as the world’s largest carbon emitter,the power industry is an important basic industry for the development of the national economy,exploring the causal relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions has important practical significance for the relevant authorities in China in developing lowcarbon economy and energy policy planning for power sector.In this paper,the causal relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions is discussed based on the panel data of WDI database during 1990-2013 by using econometric techniques,including cointegration test,Granger causality test and impulse response functions.First,the unit root is used to test whether the time series data is stable,because only the stable time series data can be cointegration test and Granger causality test.Then the VAR model is used to explore the long-term equilibrium relationships between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions and the shortterm interactions between variables.Finally,the impulse response functions is used to analyze the effect of stochastic perturbation on the other variables in the model.The empirical results show that there exists aco-integration relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions,which means long-term equilibrium relationship.While there does not exists Granger causality between electricity consumption and CO2 emissions,economic growth and CO2 emissions,and there exists a two-way Granger causality between economic growth and electricity consumption.It is concluded from the VAR model that the lag of electricity consumption has a positive effect on current economic growth and CO2 emissions;the lag of economic growth has a negative effect on current electricity consumption and CO2 emissions,while the lag of CO2 emissions has no significant impact on current economic growth.Which implies that the previous period economic growth promotes the current economic growth in the short term,as the environmental Kuznets curve described it will stimulate technological innovation and improve energy efficiency in the long term,reducing the current CO2 emissions as results.Based on the empirical results,some advice on China′s low-carbon economy development and energy policy planning is provided for the power sector.Electricity consumption will increase the amount of CO2 emissions,but not directly promote economic growth.Therefore,in order to reduce CO2 emissions while maintaining economic growth,it is necessary to improve the efficiency of energy consumption,through technological progress or industrial structure adjustment,making per unit of electricity consumption reduction,thus "low energy consumption,low emission,high yield" green development can be achieved.in addition,it can also actively promote the power industry structure optimization or to find new energy to develop low-carbon economy.