通過構建政府間減排演化博弈模型,模擬了無約束條件下區域內地方政府間獨立減排、合作減排及在環境規制的條件下區域內地方政府獨立減排的策略選擇演化過程。研究發現,(1)無環境規制的獨立減排情形下,先發地區減排意向薄弱,后發地區有減排意愿,但減排效果不顯著;(2)合作減排時,當協同收益小于交易成本時,隨著地方政府經濟發展,減排博弈最終會向地方政府一方減排一方不減排的方向演進;當協同收益大于交易成本時,通過合作減排,提高了減排意愿。(3)地方政府獨立減排條件下,環境規制僅在經濟后發地區可以起到作用,減排效果并不顯著。通過提高協同收益、減低交易成本及有效促進區域合作減排,對實現減排目標具有重要意義。

It is a key step to reduce the influence of externality by coordinating the interests of the subjects in the agglomeration space and promoting interregional cooperation.Through the construction of the intergovernmental emission reduction evolutionary game model,the local government in the region under the conditions of independent emission reduction,cooperative emission reduction and environmental regulation in the region under the local government independent emission reduction strategy selection process of evolution.The study found that:(1)when the level of economic development of local government and external government are relatively small,whether it is independent emission reduction or cooperative reduction,{reduction,reduction}is local government stability strategy,however the mitigation effect is not significant;(2)In the case of independent emission reduction,when the economic level of one or both are raised to a certain degree,{emission reduction,non-emission reduction}or{non-emission reduction,emission reduction}is stability strategy of the system;(3)In the case of cooperative emission reduction,when the synergistic income is less than the transaction costs,with the local government economic development,local government’s emission reduction game will eventually evolve into the situation that one side reduces emission and the other does not.If the synergistic income is greater than the transaction cost,the optimization of resources were achieved,reducing the negative effects of carbon emissions,improve the willingness of reduce emissions.(4)Due to the special characteristics of carbon emissions space product attributes,environmental regulation can’t play agood effect,only in the economic backward areas can make sense,the emission reduction effect is not significant.Finally,the validity of the model is verified through a numerical simulation.By improving synergies,or reducing transaction costs,promote regional cooperation in emission reduction has great significance to achieve emission reduction targets.