為實現可持續發展并降低溫室氣體排放,中國需大力發展可再生能源,而激勵政策對可再生能源發展具有重要推動作用。鑒于此,本文采用實物期權方法評價了中國可再生能源發電項目激勵政策的實施效果:首先分析了可再生能源項目的經濟性,提出模型假設,接著構建并求解實物期權模型。為更直觀地評價激勵政策效果,本文利用最優執行條件求解項目預期執行時間和不同技術水平下的激勵政策最優值。最后,以光伏發電項目為例進行實證分析。研究表明:①目前,中國光伏產業還難以獨立發展,仍需國家政策的支持,但現行或曾實施的光伏激勵政策存在超額激勵現象。②隨著技術水平的提高,為鼓勵投資者及時投資,政府需提高激勵力度。③從政府支出、政策效果和技術影響三個角度綜合分析,單項激勵政策中上網電價政策效果最佳,但政府支出較高;價格補貼政策效果偏弱,但政府支出較低;與其他兩項政策相比,成本補償政策效果較差。

In order to realize sustainable development and to reduce the greenhouse gas emission,China needs to promote the development of renewable energy,which is highly related to the incentive policies.Therefore,in order to investigate the effects of different incentive policies and to optimize the incentive polices,a real option approach is applied to evaluate the renewable energy policies in China:The economics of renewable energy projects in China are firstly studied,corresponding assumptions are proposed,and then real option models are established and solved.The expected execution time and the optimal incentive values with respect to technological levels are also obtained.Then,solar photovoltaic(PV)projects are used as a case study.The results show that:(1)incentive policies are necessary for the development of solar PV projects,however,the current or previous incentive policies exceeds the optimal incentive values;(2)more attractive basic incentive policies should be promulgated if there is a technological progress in the solar industry;(3)from the perspective of the government expenditure,policy effects and technological impacts,the feed-in tariff is the most effective policy,but the corresponding government expenditure is also very large;the price premium policy is also a very effective policy,and the corresponding government expenditure is smaller than that of the feed-in tariff policy;the cost-recovery policy is less attractive than the feed-in tariff and the price premium policy.