文章利用2016年浙江省寧波市生育決策調查數據,考察家庭資源、文化規范和第一個子女性別對女性二孩生育決策的影響。研究發現,已生育一孩的育齡婦女中表示"打算生育二孩"的比例約為20%,且二孩生育意愿存在戶籍差異;女性的二孩生育決策同時受到家庭資源和文化規范的雙重約束,綜合考慮現有子女是否能夠滿足其男孩偏好、子女對于自身的成本—效用以及可供家庭分配的資源狀況等因素決定是否生育二孩;女性的再生育決策模式存在戶籍差異,其中城鎮育齡婦女的男孩偏好程度較低,傾向于根據家庭資源狀況進行二孩生育決策,具有理性決策的特征,但流動和農村女性的再生育決策表現出明顯的價值取向,子女效用、男孩偏好等因素對其生育決策的影響較大。

Using the 2016 survey data of fertility decision making collected in Ningbo City,Zhejiang Province,this paper examines the effects of family resources,cultural norms,and gender of the first child on fertility decision making of the second child.Results show that fertility decision making of the second child is constrained by both family resources and cultural norms.About 20% of the women with one child want to have the second child.However,the second child fertility decision-making model is complicated.Women’s decision is heavily influenced by whether the existing child can meet their son preference,the cost-utility of child,and family resources.In addition,the decision-making model varies by household registration.Urban women have relatively low preference for boys,and their decision is primarily determined by family resources.Therefore,their second child fertility decision is more rational.In contrast,migrating and rural women’s fertility decision-making of the second child is characterized by value orientation.Children’s utility and boy preference have a greater impact on their fertility decision-making.