中國人口老齡化和"全面兩孩"政策引致的人口年齡結構變化能否提升家庭消費成為新時代人口學及相關學科亟需探討的新命題。文章構建了人口年齡結構、住房價格和家庭消費的綜合分析框架,并運用SYS-GMM模型進行實證研究,發現少兒撫養比和老年撫養比均對城鎮居民消費水平提高和消費結構改善起到直接的拉動效應,而住房價格上漲通過調節效應對上述直接效應的發揮產生抑制作用。因此,文章提出"全面兩孩"政策和人口老齡化現象帶來的撫養比提高潛藏著巨大的消費動力,撫養負擔能夠轉化為人口結構紅利。堅持房地產調控政策,避免房價過快上漲,能夠促進人口結構紅利釋放,促進城鎮家庭消費水平的提高和消費結構的優化。

A question of considerable interest and importance is whether China’s population age structure changes caused by population aging and the universal two-child policy can improve household consumption in the new era. This paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of demographic age structure, housing price and household consumption, and conducts empirical research by using SYS-GMM model. The results reveal that both the child and elderly dependency ratios have direct positive effect on the improvement of urban households’ consumption level and consumption structure, while the variable of housing price plays a significant negative moderating role on this positive effect. Therefore, this study proposes that the increase of dependency ratio brought by the universal two-child policy and population aging trend has great potential for consumption, and the dependency burden could be transformed into the demographic structure dividend. Furthermore, real estate regulation policies should be continued so as to avoid the excessively rapid rise of housing prices and unleash demographic structure dividend to help improve urban household consumption level and optimize urban household consumption structure.