要素相對價格決定企業最優生產結構,人口老齡化引致有效勞動供給的減少與勞動力成本的上升,進而影響企業創新。將地級市的人口普查數據和微觀工業企業數據庫相匹配,分析了人口老齡化對企業創新的影響。研究發現:第一,現階段低水平的人口老齡化顯著促進了中國企業創新,但長遠來看,當人口老齡化超過一定的拐點值時,將抑制企業創新;第二,相對于其他類型的企業,人口老齡化對非國有企業和資本密集型企業創新的促進作用更強;第三,人口老齡化對東部和中部地區的企業創新都產生了促進作用,而對西部地區的企業創新產生了抑制性影響;第四,人口流動抑制了人口老齡化對東部地區的企業創新的促進作用。據此,提出優化企業生產要素投入、培養質量型人口紅利、推動區域創新協調發展等建議。

The relative price of factors determines the optimal production structure of enterprises. Population ageing leads to the decrease of effective labor supply and the increase of labor costs, and thus affects enterprise innovation. This paper links the city-level census data to the data of micro industrial enterprises and analyzes the impact of regional population ageing on enterprise innovation outputs. The results show that(i) the current low level of population ageing has significantly promoted the innovation of Chinese enterprises, while population ageing exceeding a certain inflection point in the long run will inhibit enterprise innovation;(ii) compared to other types of enterprises, population ageing is more likely to promote innovation in non-state-owned enterprises and capital-intensive enterprises;(iii) the ageing of China’s population has promoted the innovation of enterprises in eastern and central regions, while it has negatively affected the enterprise innovation in western regions;(iv) population migration restrains the promotion effect of population ageing on enterprise innovation in eastern region. Policies should optimize the input of production factors, cultivate the quality demographic dividend, and promote the coordinated regional development of innovation.